关键词： TV   Economics   Utility theory   Internet   Business   Computational modeling   Predictive models  

摘要： Studying the decisions of 25,646 domain name registrants reveals that behavioral economics models more accurately predict name choice than models based on expected utility theory. These findings have implications for Internet governance, and organizations that measure similarity and competition in domain name registration.

关键词： Predictive control   Reforming   naphtha   Economic Models   dynamic models   procedural model  

摘要： Catalytic naphtha reforming is a crucial process in producing gasoline or aromatic Compounds. The characteristic of two production modes gives rise to different economic optimization and control objectives. In the present work, we design an economic model predictive control (EMPC) with a production mode switching strategy to cope with these problems. First, a rigorous dynamic process model is established;to simulate the naphtha reforming process. Then, we formulate different econornic objective functions and simplify the process model for each production mode, and also enable the EMPC controller to switch the production mode automatically according to empirical equations. Three case studies are presented to test the performance of our proposed control strategy. The results,show that the designed EMPC controller with production mode switching can successfully overcome the economic disturbances and improve the :production profits in different production modes. In addition, it also has a fast response tithe to drive the system to a new economic optimal operating point.

关键词： 交通事故   宏观计量经济模型   科布-道格拉斯生产函数   固定效应   面板数据  

摘要： 从经济发展水平、人口数量、汽车保有量和道路条件等宏观因素入手,分析了我国8个省市不同经济发展条件下,人均GDP与千人汽车保有量、万车死亡人数、十万人口死亡人数和人均道路里程之间的关系,并选取万车死亡人数作为因变量,人均GDP、千人汽车保有量和人均道路里程作为自变量,以科布-道格拉斯生产函数为基础,建立了基于计量经济学的固定效应面板数据模型,并对我国交通事故发生规律进行了模拟分析。结果表明:模型拟合效果较好,相关系数R2为0.957 1,各项因素均表现显著,模型较好地反映了我国2003年之后8省市的交通事故宏观规律。

关键词： 林业经济   空间计量   产出弹性   空间误差模型  

摘要： 基于中国31个省份2015年林业投入产出数据,在考虑省域空间联系因素的情况下,建立空间计量经济模型对中国林业要素产出弹性进行测度。研究结果表明:中国31个省份的林业产出存在显著的空间相关性,与传统的估计方法相比,空间计量模型能够揭示中国省域林业产出的空间相关性,能更准确地测度林业生产要素的产出弹性;在考虑省域空间联系因素之后发现,劳动力投入对林业产出的弹性为0.404,资本投入对林业产出的弹性为0.682,说明资本投入对林业产出的贡献大于林业劳动力投入的贡献。最终提出制定区域林业生产激励政策、建立区域统筹协调发展的林业生产合作机制等政策建议。

关键词： energy management   hybrid vehicles   distributed model predictive control   dual decomposition   auxiliaries  

摘要： In this paper, a real-time distributed economic model predictive control approach for complete vehicle energy management (CVEM) is presented using a receding control horizon in combination with a dual decomposition. The dual decomposition allows the CVEM optimization problem to be solved by solving several smaller optimization problems. The receding horizon control problem is formulated with variable sample intervals, allowing for large prediction horizons with only a limited number of decision variables and constraints in the optimization problem. Furthermore, a novel on/off control concept for the control of the refrigerated semi-trailer, the air supply system and the climate control system is introduced. Simulation results on a low-fidelity vehicle model show that close to optimal fuel reduction performance can be achieved. The fuel reduction for the on/off controlled subsystems strongly depends on the number of switches allowed. By allowing up to 15-times more switches, a fuel reduction of 1.3% can be achieved. The approach is also validated on a high-fidelity vehicle model, for which the road slope is predicted by an e-horizon sensor, leading to a prediction of the propulsion power and engine speed. The prediction algorithm is demonstrated with measured ADASIS information on a public road around Eindhoven, which shows that accurate prediction of the propulsion power and engine speed is feasible when the vehicle follows the most probable path. A fuel reduction of up to 0.63% is achieved for the high-fidelity vehicle model.

关键词： F41   E44   G01   H23  

摘要： This paper contributes to a literature that studies optimal capital control policy in open economy models with pecuniary externalities due to flow collateral constraints. It shows that the optimal policy calls for capital controls to be lowered during booms and to be increased during recessions. These findings are at odds with the conventional view that capital controls should be tightened during expansions to curb capital inflows and relaxed during contractions to discourage capital flight.

关键词： economic impact   EMSI   IMPLAN   regional economic model  

摘要： Economic Modeling Specialist International (EMSI) model is a common economic development research tool that has begun to be utilized for tourism research. Therefore, it is important to examine the differences between the EMSI model and the commonly used Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) model. The multiplier effects of the default version of EMSI and IMPLAN were compared using data obtained from a visitor expenditure survey of the Jackson Mississippi Mistletoe Marketplace. The results revealed that IMPLAN estimated larger multiplier effects (both type I and type II) than EMSI for the total output and employment (job supports).

关键词： distributed economic model predictive control   process safety   computation time  

摘要： Achieving operational safety of chemical processes while operating them in an economically-optimal manner is a matter of great importance. Our recent work integrated process safety with process control by incorporating safety-based constraints within model predictive control (MPC) design;however, the safety-based MPC was developed with a centralized architecture, with the result that computation time limitations within a sampling period may reduce the effectiveness of such a controller design for promoting process safety. To address this potential practical limitation of the safety-based control design, in this work, we propose the integration of a distributed model predictive control architecture with Lyapunov-based economic model predictive control (LEMPC) formulated with safety-based constraints. We consider both iterative and sequential distributed control architectures, and the partitioning of inputs between the various optimization problems in the distributed structure based on their impact on process operational safety. Moreover, sufficient conditions that ensure feasibility and closed-loop stability of the iterative and sequential safety distributed LEMPC designs are given. A comparison between the proposed safety distributed EMPC controllers and the safety centralized EMPC is demonstrated via a chemical process example. (C) 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

关键词： Economic model predictive control   Pump scheduling approach   Two-layer control scheme   Non-linear differential-algebraic equations   Water distribution networks  

摘要： This paper addresses a non-linear economic model predictive control (EMPC) strategy for water distribution networks (WDNs). A WDN could be considered as a non-linear system described by differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) when flow and hydraulic head equations are considered. As in other process industries, the main operational goal of WDNs is the minimisation of the economic costs associated to pumping and water treatment, while guaranteeing water supply with required flows and pressures at all the control/demand nodes in the network. Other operational goals related to safety and reliability are usually sought. From a control point of view, EMPC is a suitable control strategy for WDNs since the optimal operation of the network cannot be established a priori by fixing reference volumes in the tanks. Alternatively, the EMPC strategy should determine the optimal filling/emptying sequence of the tanks taking into account that electricity price varies between day and night and that the demand also follows a 24-hour repetitive pattern. On the other hand, as a result of the ON/OFF operation of parallel pumps in pumping stations, a two-layer control scheme has been used: a non-linear EMPC strategy with hourly control interval is chosen in the upper layer and a pump scheduling approach with one-minute sampling time in the lower layer. Finally, closed-loop simulation results of applying the proposed control strategy to the D-Town water network are shown. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change   Energy policy   Energy transition   Green investments   Agent-based modeling   Learning by doing  

摘要： Climate-economic modeling often relies on macroeconomic integrated assessment models (IAMs) that in general try to capture how the combined system reacts to different policies. Irrespective of the specific modeling approach, IAMs suffer from two notable problems. First, although policies and emissions are dependent on individual or institutional behavior, the models are not able to account for the heterogeneity and adaptive behavior of relevant actors. Second, the models unanimously consider mitigation actions as costs instead of investments: an arguable definition, given that all other expenditures are classified as investments. Both are challenging if the long-term development of climate change and the economy shall be analyzed. This paper therefore proposes a dynamic agent-based model, based on the battle of perspectives approach (Janssen [1];Janssen and de Vries [2];Geisendorf [3, 4]) that details the consequences of various behavioral assumptions. Furthermore, expenditures for climate protection, e.g., the transition of the energy system to renewables, are regarded as investments in future technologies with promising growth rates and the potential to incite further growth in adjoining sectors (Jaeger et al. [5]). The paper analyzes how a different understanding of climate protection expenditures changes the system's dynamic and, thus, the basis for climate policy decisions. The paper also demonstrates how erroneous perceptions impact on economic and climate development, underlining the importance to acknowledge heterogeneous beliefs and behavior for the success of climate policy.