关键词： ECONOMIC models   PUBLIC health   DECISION making   REGRESSION analysis   MEDICAL economics  

摘要： Health economic evaluation is a framework for the comparative analysis of the incremental health gains and costs associated with competing decision alternatives. The process of developing health economic models is usually complex, financially expensive and time-consuming. For these reasons, model development is sometimes based on previous model-based analyses;this endeavour is usually referred to as model replication. Such model replication activity may involve the comprehensive reproduction of an existing model or 'borrowing' all or part of a previously developed model structure. Generally speaking, the replication of an existing model may require substantially less effort than developing a new de novo model by bypassing, or undertaking in only a perfunctory manner, certain aspects of model development such as the development of a complete conceptual model and/or comprehensive literature searching for model parameters. A further motivation for model replication may be to draw on the credibility or prestige of previous analyses that have been published and/or used to inform decision making. The acceptability and appropriateness of replicating models depends on the decision-making context: there exists a trade-off between the 'savings' afforded by model replication and the potential 'costs' associated with reduced model credibility due to the omission of certain stages of model development. This paper provides an overview of the different levels of, and motivations for, replicating health economic models, and discusses the advantages, disadvantages and caveats associated with this type of modelling activity. Irrespective of whether replicated models should be considered appropriate or not, complete replicability is generally accepted as a desirable property of health economic models, as reflected in critical appraisal checklists and good practice guidelines. To this end, the feasibility of comprehensive model replication is explored empirically across a small number

关键词： information dissemination   publishing   software   computer simulation   health policy   cost-benefit analysis   health economics  

摘要： To enhance the credibility and the value of health economic analyses, we argue that the computer model source code underlying these analyses should be made publicly available. Only with open publication is it possible for others to assess whether alternative assumptions, beyond those examined by the model authors, alter the model's findings. Because reproducibility is critical for scientific acceptance and because computation increasingly permeates scientific inquiry, other fields have moved toward open publication of computer models, and health economics should avoid falling behind. Making source code available shines a light on these otherwise black boxes and facilitates their complete evaluation and understandability. The preceding commentary makes 2 arguments against open publication. It claims first that open publication would undermine intellectual property rights and discourage work in this field. We respond that the impact on intellectual property would be minimal, and that open publication could even increase model value. The second argument against open publication is the possibility of model misuse. If anything, however, open publication would reduce this risk by making the model implementation completely transparent. We argue finally that open publication of models would have ancillary benefits by making the research more amenable for adaptation and innovation. Moving toward open publication will present challenges, but we believe that the benefits of increased scientific credibility and utility, particularly for health policy and clinical practice decisions, will certainly outweigh the harms.

关键词： PUBLIC health   DATA analysis  

摘要： Published online: 27 September 2017 © Springer International Publishing AG 2017 Dear Editor, As authors of the ongoing study [1] referenced within the article \"Replicating Health Economic Models: Firm Foundations or a House of Cards?\" [2], we feel the article attempts to introduce a very important concept to the field of health economics that has previously received little attention.[...]whilst this paper does introduce the very important concept of replication, there is scope for further exploration, particularly taking into account alternative motivations for replicating health economic *** with Ethical Standards Funding source This letter was written whilst Professor Tracey Sach was funded by a Career Development Fellowship (CDF-2014-07-006) supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).

关键词： health economics   cost-effectiveness analysis   medical decision making   peer-review  

摘要： The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses has a number of questions unanswered with respect to the implementation of transparent, open source code interface for economic models. The possibility of making economic model source code could be positive and progressive for the field;however, several unintended consequences of this system should be first considered before complete implementation of this model. First, there is the concern regarding intellectual property rights that modelers have to their analyses. Second, the open source code could make analyses more accessible to inexperienced modelers, leading to inaccurate or misinterpreted results. We propose several resolutions to these concerns. The field should establish a licensing system of open source code such that the model originators maintain control of the code use and grant permissions to other investigators who wish to use it. The field should also be more forthcoming towards the teaching of cost-effectiveness analysis in medical and health services education so that providers and other professionals are familiar with economic modeling and able to conduct analyses with open source code. These types of unintended consequences need to be fully considered before the field's preparedness to move forward into an era of model transparency with open source code.

关键词： models   economic   precision  

摘要： An integration of choice sets of multi-stakeholders ‘preferences is timely, when various governments initiate national value assessment frameworks and engage in multistakeholders’ consultations. The model expands an epidemiological and economic model using multiple levels of disaggregation (Huttin, 2007, 2010). it uses the algorithm called reversed conjoint, on multiple choice sets for providers (2014), and possibly other discrete choices models, to adjust structural economic models for tailored prognostic, diagnostic and treatment choices towards precision *** the R&D ecosystem, new PRCTs may be used, to do practice changing studies based on enough evidence (e.g. Mindact trial with patient stratification balancing high/low genomic risks and high/low clinical risks, Hudis and Dickler, 2016). A conceptual framework is proposed using physicians, patients and payers. The current methodological development involves two steps: Step 1 A Stated choice experimental design, based on different conceptual developments of the Lens model with different categories of judges, involving physician and patients in shared decision making process; or lab directors, physicians and patients. Unobserved physicians ‘preference heterogeneity is represented in a stated preference model, with an inclusion of effects of financial and economic information due to physician or practice economics, treatment costs of drug and devices, and patient economics (cost cognitive cues) .Step 2: A disease econometric model, including a partition of medical practices helps to identify potential cut off points and critical thresholds where stated data can complement billing information on complex cost sharing mechanisms (it uses the cutoff literature and analytical datasets).The feasibility of a joint estimation combining stated and revealed data elements on cost of care is discussed, based on an estimation of a joint model using maximum likelihood methods and analysis of variances. Key messages: Mult

关键词： 房价   截面数据   逐步回归   EVIEW软件  

摘要： 本文以住房价格作为研究对象,将影响房价的因素从房产的消费品与投资品两重属性着手,分为需求因素、供给因素以及宏观经济变量三个方面。为考察影响房价的市场本身因素,采用了35个大中城市的截面数据对影响房价的因素进行定量分析。在定量分析过程中,借助EVIEW软件,建立变量间的回归模型,并通过逐步回归修正回归模型,从而成立最终影响房价因素的回归方程。

关键词： 宏观经济模型   中央银行   历史   统计委员会   货币政策   经济学家   刺激经济   会议准备  

摘要： 1936年，荷兰经济学家丁伯根建立了最早用于央行货币政策研究的宏观经济模型，以解答是否应通过促使荷兰盾贬值刺激经济。丁伯根原本是为荷兰经济和统计委员会1936年10月24日会议准备的论文，

关键词： 创新发展   供给侧结构性改革   萨伊定律   企业自生能力  

摘要： 供给侧结构性改革是以习近平主席为核心的党中央在我国经济进入增长速度的换挡期、结构调整的阵痛期和前期政策的消化期,针对我国经济社会面临的新问题、新情况提出的发展新理念和改革新举措。本文通过对企业行为的技术重构,尝试用主流经济学的语言进行供给侧经济理论建模来探讨"三去一降一补"现实根源和理论基础,以及当前我国经济面临的问题,最后给出了理论模型对供给侧改革的政策含义。