关键词： MEDICAL decision making   PATIENT decision making   MEDICAL care costs   DELPHI method   MARKOV processes   QUALITY control of medical care   MEDICAL innovations  

摘要： The article examines the use of decision analytic models in health care setting to explore both the costs and benefits accrued by patients. Topics discussed include the different stages involved in sourcing the health state utility values (HSUVs), the guidance on appropriate DAM approaches, and the good practice recommendations and checklists on DAM approaches.

关键词： Behavioral economics   Nudges   Peer effects   Self-control   Prospect theory   Framing effect  

摘要： We propose a triple test to evaluate the usefulness of behavioral economics models for public health policy. Test 1 is whether the model provides reasonably new insights. Test 2 is on whether these have been properly applied to policy settings. Test 3 is whether they are corroborated by evidence. We exemplify by considering the cases of social interactions models, self-control models and, in relation to health message framing, prospect theory. Out of these sets of models, only a correctly applied prospect theory fully passes the tests at present. Specifically, in broad agreement with the evidence, a gain frame has positive implications for welfare encourages disease prevention activity, though this does not apply if the perceived probability of the bad health outcome is large enough. We see our tests as being useful to identify how much health policy weight policy makers should assign to specific behavioral economic models;they are also useful to verify what next steps would be most useful in further research.

摘要： OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual clinical and economic impact of Vaginitis and Vaginosis (V/V) detection, using a FDA-authorized nucleic acid amplification vaginal panel (NVP) vs clinical diagnosis (CDx) and “traditional methods”(Trad) of diagnosis (Amsel criteria for Bacterial Vaginosis (BV), and wet mount for vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC)and Trichomoniasis (TV)). Specifically, the goal was to estimate incorrect infections avoided and the net economic impact to the laboratory of switching to NVP. METHODS: A budget impact model was developed to compare test performance and outcomes for each diagnostic method. The model was populated with data from the NVP randomized controlled clinical trial in the US and review of US literature. NVP and CDx were compared to reference methods for the detection of BV, VVC, and TV. The number of incorrect diagnoses was estimated for each method for 1583 symptomatic women. Cost data was calculated in 2017 US dollars. Data considered were annual cost of testing to the laboratory (including labor, service, and quality) and average estimated reimbursement. RESULTS: Under the base case assumptions, 36.1% (556/1583) of incorrect diagnoses would be avoided by using NVP over CDx, with 20.9% (181/866), 60.5% (327/541), and 35.2% (47/133) incorrect diagnoses avoided for BV, VVC, and TV respectively. NVP vs Trad would have avoided 27.7% (438/1583) more incorrect diagnoses overall, with 12.2% (106/866), 55.6% (301/541), and 23.3% (31/133) incorrect diagnoses avoided for BV, VVC, and TV respectively. NVP correctly detected 6.0% (51/846), 42.5% (134/315), and 68.2% (15/22) more single, dual, and triple infections than CDx respectively, and 5.9% (50/846), 34.0% (107/541), and 63.6% (14/22) more than Trad. While test acquisition cost is higher with NVP than CDx and Trad (an incremental $143,941 and $2,435 per year respectively), due to increased reimbursement and reduction of manual labor and negative clinical outcomes, the annual total laboratory

关键词： Economic model predictive control   Safety   Distributed control   Process control   Nonlinear systems  

摘要： In this work, sequential and iterative distributed economic model predictive control (DEMPC) architectures are developed with constraints based on a metric (termed the Safeness Index) that is indicative of the safeness of operating a process at a given state in state-space. The DEMPC's may have lower computation times than a centralized economic model predictive control (EMPC) design with Safeness Index-based constraints, without significantly limiting closed-loop economic performance, which enhances their practicality and ability to improve process operational safety. Sufficient conditions are derived under which the implementation strategies for the DEMPC's guarantee closed-loop stability. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 农业科研投资   边际收益   时空特征   空间计量经济模型  

摘要： 以边际收益作为表征指标,探讨2002~2014年中国农业科研投资经济效益的时空特征与影响因素。结果表明:中国农业科研投资的经济效益呈缓慢下降趋势;华中、华北、华南和东北区的经济效益较高,而西北区则相对较低;区域农业科研投资经济效益存在空间集聚,但集聚效应呈弱化态势;耕地经营面积、劳动力素质等因素会对农业科研投资经济效益产生不同程度的影响。

关键词： 储能电池   一次调频   成本—效益   容量配置  

摘要： 规模间歇电源并网引起的电网频率问题,导致对引入储能辅助调频的研究越发迫切。提出一种考虑储能电池参与一次调频技术经济模型的容量配置方法。阐述了储能电池功率和容量设计的通用方法;通过分析储能电池在调频运行过程中的成本和效益,基于全寿命周期理论,运用净现值法结合仿真模型构建储能电池参与一次调频的技术经济模型;设计了一种储能电池参与一次调频的充放电策略,在此基础上,考虑受风电出力波动影响的电网综合负荷,从与之对应的电网频率信号波动特性出发,在确定的电网调频及储能电池运行要求约束下,得出调频效果最优、经济性最优以及两者综合最优目标下的储能电池容量配置方案。仿真结果表明了该方法的合理性及有效性。本研究有助于推动储能电池在辅助调频服务上的示范与工程化应用。

关键词： 中国对外贸易   经济增速   宏观经济模型   恢复性增长   全球经济   GDP   CPI   季报  

摘要： 中国季度宏观经济模型2017年秋季报告预测：2017年,中国经济增速将小幅提高,GDP将增长6.80%,增速比2016年提高0.10个百分点;CPI预计上涨1.72%,涨幅比2016年下降0.29个百分点.报告显示,2017年下半年至2018年,全球经济的同步复苏将继续促进中国对外贸易的恢复性增长.

关键词： 图书市场   发展阶段   因子分析   多元线性回归   数学建模   产值预测  

摘要： 文章汇总了1978年至2016年我国各年度宏观经济指标与图书出版业主要数据,发现自改革开放以来,无论是依据内部指标,还是外部指标,中国图书市场都存在四个特征明显各异的阶段。然后基于分期数据,文章通过因子分析和多元线性回归数学建模,建立了中国图书市场规模宏观经济模型。模型提示,自1999年以来,中国图书市场规模主要与社会宏观经济指标相关,而与图书行业的产出关系较小,且其发展过程中,城镇的推动作用远大于农村。最后,文章依据模型与"十三五"规划控制指标,预测了2020年中国图书市场规模,讨论了中国图书市场面临的机遇与挑战。

关键词： models   economic   assisted living facilities   fall prevention  

摘要： The main issue addressed by this study was to predict the health economic performance of a new, made in Italy, revolutionary early-stage device, which can detect and prevent incipient falls at home. Falls, and injuries associated with falls, are a major public health problem. In the UK, existing estimates of the health and social care costs for falls account for over €1.4 billion annually, tough falls are generally underestimated. The segment of population mainly affected by the problem of falling is composed of elderly people living in their own home. Given that the ageing trends of Europe and Western countries will concur to increase the incidence of falls and the related healthcare costs, there is a strong economic incentive to develop cost-effective technological solutions for falls prevention. However, there is uncertainty in their health economic consequences. In this case-study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis, supported an expert panel of biomedical engineers and orthopedics to elicit the missing performance device data to populate a decision analytic model. A Markov model for elderly UK residents living in their own home was constructed over a time horizon of 12 months and the outcomes in terms of costs, falls prevented, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were expressed. The preliminary results showed that the use of the new device is expected to be costs saving for the health care system and to decrease the probability of falls; however, it is difficult to achieve a balance between optimal care and user acceptance. Since the statistics and epidemiology of falling are replicated in member states throughout Europe, such an exercise in the UK setting can provide a general prediction of the likely costs and effectiveness of early-stage ambient assisted living (AAL) devices. As more evidence becomes available over time, these new real data can be added to the early health economic model. Key message

关键词： health economics   cost-effectiveness analysis   medical decision making   peer-review  

摘要： The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine convened on December 7, 2016 at the National Academy of Medicine to disseminate their recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Following its summary, panel proceedings included lengthy discussions including the field's struggle to disseminate findings efficiently through peer-reviewed literature to target audiences. With editors of several medical and outcomes research journals in attendance, there was consensus that findings of cost-effectiveness analyses do not effectively reach other researchers or health care providers. The audience members suggested several solutions including providing additional training to clinicians in cost-effectiveness research and requiring that cost-effectiveness models are made publicly available. However, there remains the questions of whether making economic modelers' work open-access through journals is fair under the defense that these models remain one's own intellectual property, or whether journals can properly manage the peer-review process specifically for cost-effectiveness analyses. In this article, we elaborate on these issues and provide some suggested solutions that may increase the dissemination and application of cost-effectiveness literature to reach its intended audiences and ultimately benefit the patient. Ultimately, it is our combined view as economic modelers and clinicians that cost-effectiveness results need to reach the clinician to improve the efficiency of medical practice, but that open-access models do not improve clinician access or interpretation of the economics of medicine.