关键词： 地理加权回归模型   空间计量经济模型   空间分层自相关地理加权回归模型   空间异质性   空间依赖性  

摘要： 地理加权回归(Geographic Weighted Regression本文简记为GWR)是一种有效处理空间回归问题的建模方法,它的系数为空间地理位置的函数,因此能够处理空间非平稳性问题.空间计量理论通过空间的邻接矩阵,在横截面数据的回归模型中对空间对象的相互关系和结构的不匀称性进行研究.本文结合GWR模型与两个权重矩阵的空间计量经济模型,得到空间分层自相关地理加权回归模型(Spatially Stratified Autocorrelation Geographic Weighted Regression Model本文简记为SSAGWR).其最大优势是同时处理了空间的非平稳性和不同层次之间的空间依赖性.本篇文章首先介绍了GWR模型与空间计量模型.之后介绍了SSAGWR模型的二阶段估计在处理多层数据结构方面的优越性.再对SSAGWR模型的参数估计及统计推断进行了具体的分析,通过模拟试验对比GWR模型考察其精确性,绘制对比曲面图,将偏差平方的均值与GWR模型的相应结果进行比较,以说明SSAGWR模型在研究不同层次的空间数据时所表现出的宏观和微观层面的空间依赖性.最近几年来,由于数据获得方法的多样化并且许多学科对“空间作用”、“位置”和“不同层次”的越来越重视,空间计量模型得到了深入的研究和普遍的关注.本文通过借鉴半变系数模型的二阶段估计方法,从理论角度对SSAGWR模型与经典的GWR模型的差异进行了比较,由此凸显了本文的理论创新之处.创新主要表现在:经典的GWR模型中,在分析空间相关性时,只包含一个层次的空间相关,本文在详细解读地理加权回归模型和空间分层计量经济模型的基础上,从理论上研究了两个层次的空间依赖性和异质性问题.

关键词： Obesity   health economics   model   Optifast   payer  

摘要： Objectives: Obesity is associated with high direct medical costs and indirect costs resulting from productivity loss. The high prevalence of obesity generates a justified need to identify cost-effective weight loss approaches from a payer's perspective. Within the variety of weight management techniques, OPTIFAST is a clinically recognized and scientifically proven total meal replacement Low Calorie Diet that provides meaningful results in terms of weight loss and reduction in comorbidities. The objective of this study is assess potential cost-savings of the OPTIFAST program in the US, as compared to "no intervention" and pharmacotherapy. Methods: An event-driven decision analytic model was used to estimate payer's cost-savings from reimbursement of the 1-year OPTIFAST program over 3 years in the US. The analysis was performed for the broad population of obese persons (BMI >30 kg/m(2)) undergoing the OPTIFAST program vs liraglutide 3 mg, naltrexone/bupropion and vs "no intervention". The model included the risk of complications related to increased BMI. Data sources included published literature, clinical trials, official US price/tariff lists, and national population statistics. The primary perspective was that of a US payer;costs were provided in 2016 US dollars. Results: OPTIFAST leads over a period of 3 years to cost-savings of USD 9,285 per class I and II obese patient (BMI 30-39.9 kg/m(2)) as compared to liraglutide and USD 685 as compared to naltrexone/bupropion. In the same time perspective, the OPTIFAST program leads to a reduction of cost of obesity complications of USD 1,951 as compared to "no intervention", with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD 6,475 per QALY. Scenario analyses also show substantial cost-savings in patients with class III obesity (BMI >= 40.0 kg/m(2)) and patients with obesity (BMI = 30-39.9 kg/m(2)) and type 2 diabetes vs all three previous comparators and bariatric surgery. Conclusions: Reimbursing OPTIFAST leads to mean

关键词： 经济模型  

ISBN: (数字)9787520130707 ISBN: (纸本)9787520130707

摘要： 本书包括多个经济系统模型：含确定寿命和不确定寿命的经济系统模型，封闭经济和开放经济的可计算的一般均衡模型，中国人口与经济长期预测模型等。对于模型涉及的储蓄率内生化、寿命不确定下的消费决策等问题，作者都做了深入的研究，提出了有独创性的见解。用这些模型研究了人口红利、社会养老保险、碳税与与二氧化碳减排等问题，得出的结论比较可信。对于中国人口与经济的长期预测，作者提出的模型都很简洁，但不失全面性，预测的准确度较高。

关键词： Bounded rationality   climate policy   energy efficiency   rebound effect  

摘要： Various macroeconomic models have been proposed to study the effects of climate policies. But from many corners now, it has been argued that these models are inadequate as tools for policy analysis. In particular, extreme impacts of climate change, inherent uncertainty, and discounting have been widely discussed as flaws of current models. Surprisingly, unrealistic assumptions about individual behaviour, which ignore well-documented behavioural anomalies' and social interactions, have attracted little attention so far in the economic analysis of climate change impacts and policies. This article begins to address this gap by providing an overview of formal macro-behavioural models, designed to incorporate a variety of realistic behaviours, such as present bias, habit formation, loss-aversion, and social status into economic theory. We show that ignoring behavioural anomalies may undermine the effectiveness of climate policies, which we illustrate with examples of optimal pollution tax and the social cost of carbon. In addition, we study the probability of the rebound effect in each behavioural model. The rebound effect describes a situation where improvements in energy efficiency render a reduction in energy consumption less than proportional. We show that status concerns make the economy more conducive to the rebound effect compared to a model with fully rational agents. Models of habit formation and loss aversion can have the opposite *** RELEVANCECurrent models to assess climate policies may deliver biased insights owing to the omission of essential aspects of bounded rationality. The discounted utility framework, which describes how consumers trade current versus future consumption, is typically used to evaluate climate policies. Climate change economists have largely ignored alternative behavioural models, which integrate into economic theory realistic behaviours, such as: present bias, habit formation, loss-aversion, and social status. This is surpris

关键词： 用电量   第二产业   极限学习机(ELM)   经济增长   预测  

摘要： 考虑到产业发展与用电量之间的显著相关性,将极限学习机(extreme learning machine,ELM)应用于研究用电量与经济发展之间的关系,讨论如何基于用电量数据来预测产业经济增长。案例研究表明:(1)ELM算法在大多数情况下比普通线性回归方法具有更高的准确率;(2)统计结果显示,第二产业的几乎所有下属产业都高度依赖电力消费,其经济增长率与其用电量呈非线性正相关。

ISBN: (纸本)9787563828586

关键词： Health economics   systematic reviews   health economic models   psychiatry   schizophrenia  

摘要： Introduction: There is a growing need for economic evaluations describing the disease course, as well as the costs and clinical outcomes related to the treatment of *** covered: A systematic review on studies describing health economic models in schizophrenia and a targeted literature review on utility mapping algorithms in schizophrenia were carried out. Models found in the review were collated and assessed in detail according to their type and various other attributes. Fifty-nine studies were included in the review. Modeling techniques varied from simple decision trees to complex simulation models. The models used various clinical endpoints as value drivers, 47% of the models used quality-adjusted life years, and eight percent used disability-adjusted life years to measure benefits, while others applied various clinical outcomes. Most models considered patients switching between therapies, and therapeutic adherence, compliance or persistence. The targeted literature review identified four main approaches to map PANSS scores to utility *** commentary: Health economic models developed for schizophrenia showed great variability, with simulation models becoming more frequently used in the last decade. Using PANSS scores as the basis of utility estimations is justifiable.

关键词： Carbon finance   economic models   energy models   financial mechanisms   macroeconomic effects  

摘要： This article outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate and energy policy, which could lead to misleading information being used for policy-making. We show that the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models that are typically used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the financial system that sit at odds with the observed reality. These assumptions lead to 'crowding out' of capital and, because of the way the models are constructed, negative economic impacts (in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and welfare) from climate policy in virtually all cases. In contrast, macro-econometric models, which follow non-equilibrium economic theory and adopt a more empirical approach, apply a treatment of the financial system that is more consistent with reality. Although these models also have major limitations, they show that green investment need not crowd out investment in other parts of the economy - and may therefore offer an economic stimulus. Our conclusion is that improvements in both modelling approaches should be sought with some urgency - both to provide a better assessment of potential climate and energy policy and to improve understanding of the dynamics of the global financial system more generally. POLICY RELEVANCE This article discusses the treatment of the financial system in the macroeconomic models that are used in assessments of climate and energy policy. It shows major limitations in approach that could result in misleading information being provided to policy-makers.

关键词： PPP   Renewable energy   Infrastructure management   Infrastructure economics   Infrastructure finance   Project feasibility analysis  

摘要： Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the financial and economic aspects of the renewable energy sector aiming to develop and present a project feasibility analysis model that allows the public sector to master plan socially beneficial infrastructure projects and to find financially viable options for private investments. This paper develops a general frame that can be harmonized to a certain project by applying relevant country specific schemes. Design/methodology/approach The cost-benefit analysis (CBA) approach is used to develop relevant formulas aiming to compare the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) and financial internal rate of return (FIRR) of the possible investment options. The IRR method is used for the development of a platform that will allow comparing different project alternatives and choosing an optimal model for both public and private partners. A case study approach from Uzbekistan is used to highlight the implementation possibilities of the model based on a certain country example. Findings This paper develops a decision-making frame allowing the public sector to find organizational options that provide economically viable projects and at the same time attract private investors in the latter. The designed map of possible benefits, costs and revenue mechanisms allows practitioners to analyze the economic and financial viability of the existing combinations by using the developed model. Practical implications The developed model will allow the public sector to use the needed data on different possible design models in the developed formulas in order to identify the EIRR and FIRR of each option. Nevertheless, the application of the model will be possible after considering country specific options needed for CBA. The private sector can use the model to identify the financially acceptable options for the investments. Originality/value The paper provides the decision makers with a sound tool to identify the possible combinations of the

关键词： 中原城市群   空间溢出效应   铁路发展   经济增长   城镇化   空间自相关   空间计量经济模型  

摘要： 中原城市群作为我国“一带一路”战略重要节点、中国第四经济增长极,肩负着承接我国东部地区资源转移、西部地区资源输出、促进中原崛起的重要任务,发展潜力较大。在城市群战略下,城市之间的经济增长往往存在一定的空间溢出效应,而铁路作为重大交通基础设施及城市间社会和经济发展的联系纽带,很大程度上影响着城市之间的空间经济活动,主要体现在经济增长、城镇化、可达性及经济联系强度变化等方面。为了定性和定量地分析中原城市群铁路发展对空间经济活动的影响,本文梳理了铁路发展影响空间经济活动的作用机理,对2006年-2016年期间中原城市群经济增长、城镇化、铁路发展的现状及空间布局变化进行了研究,并通过计算得到该期间可达性和经济联系强度的变化。在此基础上,构造0-1邻接矩阵、2009年、2016年铁路最短通行时间作为空间权重矩阵,基于空间计量经济学方法对比研究不同铁路发展阶段下铁路以及其他影响因素对空间经济活动的影响差异。研究发现中原城市群经济增长的确存在着显著的空间溢出效应,而且铁路的发展特别是高速铁路的建设使得中原城市群各市之间的可达性、经济联系强度大大增强,促进了溢出效应;其它影响因素如实际利用外资、固定资本投资、年末就业人数对空间经济活动也具有显著的正向促进作用;在不考虑空间相关性情况下,即使用传统计量经济学方法进行研究会导致我们高估各影响因素对经济增长的影响。另外本文还对中原城市群的城镇化水平进行了着重研究,研究发现中原城市群城镇化率虽在逐渐提高但仍低于全国平均水平,且铁路的发展可以增强城镇化因素对经济增长的影响。最后本文基于研究结论提出了若干关于经济发展、铁路及城镇化建设的政策建议,以促进中原城市群经济的协调发展。