关键词： 税收收入   实证分析   经济模型   相关回归分析   Eviews   财政收入   协调发展  

摘要： 税收是财政收入的重要组成部分，对于我国经济的发展也产生着重要的推动作用。为研究影响我国税收收入的主要因素，本文将在建立经济模型的基础上，利用Eviews等计量软件对收集的数据进行相关回归分析，找出影响税收收入的主要因素，并在此基础上提出相应建议，促进我国税收收入的增长以及我国经济的协调发展。

关键词： 创新产出   长江经济带   空间计量经济模型   时空演变特征  

摘要： 以长江经济带124个地级市、自治州和2个直辖市为研究单元,用专利授权量表征创新产出,运用标准差、变异系数、ESDA和空间计量经济模型等方法对1986—2014年长江经济带创新产出的时空演变特征及形成机制进行探讨。研究表明:(1)长江经济带创新产出的绝对差异在2001年以前增加缓慢,其后迅速拉大,2012年后明显下降;相对差异在1994年以前大致呈下降趋势,其后缓慢增加,2002年后增加显著,在2003年达到最高点,2009年后出现明显的下降。(2)长江经济带创新产出高的地市数量变化不大,分布较为集中,但有向中部地区蔓延的趋势,主要位于长三角地区及中西部的省会城市。(3)长江经济带创新产出的空间关联特征以正相关为主,空间集聚特征明显且空间格局大致稳定,长三角地区一直都是创新产出密集聚集的地区,而中西部地区大多是低低集聚地区,高低集聚的地市主要是中西部一些省会城市区。(4)空间交互作用是长江经济带创新产出产生空间差异的重要原因,科技投入和科技政策对长江经济带创新产出具有显著影响,经济发展、人才资源、FDI及通讯基础设施对创新产出也具有较大影响,传统基础设施对创新产出作用最小,而外资在区域经济中的渗透程度对创新产出具有抑制作用。

关键词： Urban economics   Location choice   Polycentric city   Two-worker households   Agent-based model  

摘要： We propose an agent-based dynamics which leads an urban system to the standard equilibrium of the Alonso, Muth, Mills (AMM) framework. Starting for instance from a random initialization, agents move and bid for land, performing a kind of local search and finally leading the system to equilibrium rent, density and land use. Agreement with continuous analytical results is limited only by the discreteness of simulations. We then study polycentrism in cities with this tool. Two job centers are introduced, and the economic, social and environmental outcomes of various polycentric spatial structures are presented. We also introduce two-worker households whose partners may work in different job centers. When various two-worker households are mixed, polycentrism is desirable, as long as the centers are not too distant from each other. The environmental outcome is also positive, but housing ***. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Scientific modelling   Economic choice   Neuro-biological integration   Modelling pluralism   Neuroeconomics  

摘要： In a recent article in this Journal, Fumagalli (Biol Philos 26:617-635, 2011) argues that economists are provisionally justified in resisting prominent calls to integrate neural variables into economic models of choice. In other articles, various authors engage with Fumagalli's argument and try to substantiate three often-made claims concerning neuroeconomic modelling. First, the benefits derivable from neurally informing some economic models of choice do not involve significant tractability costs. Second, neuroeconomic modelling is best understood within Marr's three-level of analysis framework for information-processing systems. And third, neural findings enable choice modellers to confirm the causal relevance of variables posited by competing economic models, identify causally relevant variables overlooked by existing models, and explain observed behavioural variability better than standard economic models. In this paper, I critically examine these three claims and respond to the related criticisms of Fumagalli's argument. Moreover, I qualify and extend Fumagalli's account of how trade-offs between distinct modelling desiderata hamper neuroeconomists' attempts to improve economic models of choice. I then draw on influential neuroeconomic studies to argue that even the putatively best available neural findings fail to substantiate current calls for a neural enrichment of economic models.

关键词： Resale price maintenance   Consumer surplus   Welfare effects   Antitrust  

摘要： Some of the influential literature that supports the resale price maintenance efficiency view is flawed when it relies on presale services that do not modify the value-in-use of a good. Crucially, we consider that value-in-use may differ from prepurchase perceived value. We apply the value-in-use standard, which exposes the loss in consumer surplus in Bork's model and reveals that even Bork's dissenters significantly underestimate their calculated losses to inframarginal consumers. When consumer surplus is the antitrust/competition policy standard, our results suggest that a rule-of-reason regime where authorities or agencies bear the burden of proof can be unfavourable to consumers.

摘要： This essay reviews Dani Rodrik's superb book Economics Rules and argues that it can serve as an ideal platform for discussing what economists can and should accomplish. The essay comments on some of the major issues in contemporary economics examined in the book: whether economics is a science, the meaning of economic models, the nature of "facts" in economics, and others. It also touches on issues that the book overlooks, such as the sociology of the profession, the teaching curriculum in economics, and the dismal situation of publishing in economics.

关键词： Systematic review   Non-prescription opioid dependence   Opioid agonist maintenance therapy   Economic evaluation  

摘要： Background: Opioid dependence is a chronic condition with substantial health, economic and social costs. The study objective was to conduct a systematic review of published health-economic models of opioid agonist therapy for non-prescription opioid dependence, to review the different modelling approaches identified, and to inform future modelling studies. Methods: Literature searches were conducted in March 2015 in eight electronic databases, supplemented by hand-searching reference lists and searches on six National Health Technology Assessment Agency websites. Studies were included if they: investigated populations that were dependent on non-prescription opioids and were receiving opioid agonist or maintenance therapy;compared any pharmacological maintenance intervention with any other maintenance regimen (including placebo or no treatment);and were health-economic models of any type. Results: A total of 18 unique models were included. These used a range of modelling approaches, including Markov models (n = 4), decision tree with Monte Carlo simulations (n = 3), decision analysis (n = 3), dynamic transmission models (n = 3), decision tree (n = 1), cohort simulation (n = 1), Bayesian (n = 1), and Monte Carlo simulations (n = 2). Time horizons ranged from 6 months to lifetime. The most common evaluation was cost-utility analysis reporting cost per quality-adjusted life-year (n = 11), followed by cost-effectiveness analysis (n = 4), budget-impact analysis/cost comparison (n = 2) and cost-benefit analysis (n = 1). Most studies took the healthcare provider's perspective. Only a few models included some wider societal costs, such as productivity loss or costs of drug-related crime, disorder and antisocial behaviour. Costs to individuals and impacts on family and social networks were not included in any model. Conclusion: A relatively small number of studies of varying quality were found. Strengths and weaknesses relating to model structure, inputs and approach were ide

关键词： Sheep scab   Psoroptes ovis   Game theory   Farmer decision-making   Prophylaxis   Disease management  

摘要： Ovine psoroptic mange (sheep scab) is a debilitating and damaging condition caused by a hypersensitivity reaction to the faecal material of the parasitic mite Psoroptes ovis. Farmers incur costs from the use of prophylactic acaricides and, if their sheep become infected, they incur the costs of therapeutic treatment plus the economic loss from reduced stock growth, lower reproductive rate, wool loss and hide damage. The unwillingness of farmers to use routine prophylactic treatment has been cited as a primary cause of the growing incidence of sheep scab in the United Kingdom (UK) since the disease was deregulated in 1992. However, if farmers behave rationally from an economic perspective, the optimum strategy that they should adopt will depend on the risk of infection and the relative costs of prophylactic versus therapeutic treatment, plus potential losses. This calculation is also complicated by the fact that the risk of infection is increased if neighbours have scab and reduced if neighbours treat prophylactically. Hence, for any farmer, the risk of infection and optimum approach to treatment is also contingent on the behaviour of neighbours, particularly when common grazing is used. Here, the relative economic costs of different prophylactic treatment strategies are calculated for upland and lowland farmers and a game theory model is used to evaluate the relative costs for a farmer and his/her neighbour under different risk scenarios. The analysis shows that prophylaxis with organophosphate (OP) dipping is a cost effective strategy, but only for upland farmers where the risk of infection is high. In all other circumstances prophylaxis is not cost effective relative to reliance on reactive (therapeutic) treatment. Hence, farmers adopting a reactive treatment policy only, are behaving in an economically rational manner. Prophylaxis and cooperation only become economically rational if the risk of scab infection is considerably higher than the current national avera

关键词： 二元经济模型   刘易斯   发展中国家经济   农村剩余人口   诺贝尔经济学奖   拐点   新古典经济学   发展经济学  

摘要： 威廉.阿瑟.刘易斯（WilliamArthurLewis,1915～1991年）因对发展经济学作出首创性贡献，而于1979年与芝加哥大学的T.W.舒尔茨共获第十一届诺贝尔经济学奖。他于1954年发表的《劳动无限供给条件下的经济发展》一文，一改新古典经济学关于劳动力有限供给的假设，提出了二元经济模型（也称两部门模型Dual-sectorModel），用农村过剩人口作为发展中国家经济长期陷于低收入陷阱的原因，提出通过工业化和城市化吸收农村剩余人口作为走出陷阱、迈入现代化的出路。在他的二元经济模型中，发展中国家的经济结构由传统的农业部门和现代的城市部门构成（见下图）。

关键词： 地理信息系统   经济模型分析   综合评价方法  

摘要： 随着社会的发展及时代的进步,我国近几年的经济水平有着显著的提高,国民经济水平也在迅速发展,可以更好满足现阶段的社会发展及大量的市场需求。在经济快速发展的背景之下,科技发展也取得了长足的进步。就现阶段的基本国情来说,随着城市经济的进一步发展,政府部门对统计的要求可以说越来越高,在很多情况之下,对于统计的要求往往集中于可视化层面。为此,立足于现阶段统计技术的发展,对GIS基础下的社会经济模型分析与综合评价方法进行了简要的研究。