关键词： mobility   migration and commuting cost   transportation cost   sustainable growth  

摘要： The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of transportation and mobility costs on the mobility of workers and the overall population between old and new capital cities. First of all, mobility costs clearly have a negative effect on utility;higher commuting costs could lead to the spatial dispersion of workers. In addition, if the monthly commuting cost exceeds 1290 USD between Seoul (the old capital) and Sejong (the new capital), it would be efficient for workers in Seoul to move to Sejong. Finally, the interregional population equilibrium could be achieved when the share of transportation cost to commodity price reaches 60.1%.

关键词： Input-Output   System Dynamics   Ecological-Economic Modelling   Feedback   Nursery  

摘要： While environmentally extended input-output (IO) models are commonly used for capturing interactions between ecosystems and economic systems, this kind of modelling cannot reflect interactions within the ecosystem. Isard's (1968) model has been the only exception. He entered interactions occurring within the ecosystem into IO. Nevertheless, given the linearity of IO, he could only analyze environmental issues in a linear fashion. We propose an alternative that reverses Isard's model types: the economic system is modelled within the ecosystem (not the contrary), as one of the ecosystem's components. To demonstrate its feasibility, we develop an ecological-economic model by integrating conventional economic IO within system dynamics (SD). After describing the methodological issues, we "test" the IO/SD model on ecological and economic data by applying it to the destruction and restoration of the Seine Estuary, France, where Common soles live. Our model brings insight into the consideration of feedback loops in the modelling of interactions between the ecosystem and the economic system. We believe such a tool may be of help to decision makers in mixing economic and environmental issues like, in our application case, fish habitat and harbour development. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 矿床地质   经济模型法   应用  

摘要： 随着我国的经济迅速发展,对资源能源的需求也在进一步加大,加强各类矿藏资源的开采满足人们的实际需要就显得比较重要。铜镍矿作为重要的应用资源,对其进行开采就要在预测基础上进行,保障准确找到铜镍矿资源。本文主要就铜镍矿矿床地质特征和成矿的过程详细分析,然后对经济模型法在铜镍矿预测中的应用理论和具体应用进行探究,希望能通过此次理论研究,有助于铜镍矿通过经济模型法得到准确预测。

关键词： Flood management   Integrated river basin management   Optimization   Flood risk trading   Expected value  

摘要： Although flood management is no longer exclusively a topic of engineering, flood mitigation continues to be associated with hard engineering options. Flood adaptation or the capacity to adapt to flood risk, as well as a demand for internalizing externalities caused by flood risk between regions, complicate flood management activities. Even though integrated river basin management has long been recommended to resolve the above issues, it has proven difficult to apply widely, and sometimes even to bring into existence. This article explores how internalization of externalities as well as the realization of integrated river basin management can be encouraged via the use of a market-based approach, namely a flood risk trading program. In addition to maintaining efficiency of optimal resource allocation, a flood risk trading program may also provide a more equitable distribution of benefits by facilitating decentralization. This article employs a graphical analysis to show how flood risk trading can be implemented to encourage mitigation measures that increase infiltration and storage capacity. A theoretical model is presented to demonstrate the economic conditions necessary for flood risk trading. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 地方政府债务竞争   财政分权   空间计量经济模型  

摘要： 2008年全球金融危机以来,中国地方政府债务规模迅速膨胀,风险不断累积。地方政府债务是否可持续以及如何对其有效地进行治理已然成为国内外关注的重要问题。在理论上,本文构建了一个包含企业、家庭和地方政府三部门的地方政府竞争模型。研究发现,中国地方政府间存在债务竞争的策略性互动行为;同时,在给定地方政府间存在债务竞争的情况下,财政分权会降低地方政府债务竞争程度。在实证研究上,基于2009-2013年29个省级面板数据,本文使用空间计量经济模型进行了实证检验。结果表明,本地政府选择举债融资时会充分地考虑相邻地区的举债融资策略行为,即相邻地区的人均政府债务规模每增加1%,本地区的人均政府债务就会相应地增加0.264%。此外,进一步实证分析了财政分权与地方政府债务竞争行为的关系,结果与理论发现保持一致。本文的研究对合理地控制地方政府债务规模快速扩张和防范地方政府债务风险有着重要的政策意义。

关键词： 宏观经济模型   自治微分系统   稳定性   Hopf分支  

摘要： 本文主要研究宏观经济学中一类重要的模型,其本质为三维的自治微分系统。通过对它的平衡点稳定性以及产生的Hopf分支进行定性分析,揭示了经济学中的一些规律。

关键词： 人口老龄化   影响因素   空间溢出效应   空间面板计量模型  

摘要： 本文通过引入空间面板计量经济模型,对2005-2012年全国各省老龄化相关数据处理,着重分析了中国各省域人口老龄化的影响因素及其空间溢出效应。研究结果表明,各省人均GDP、出生率、死亡率、医疗卫生条件和城市化率对人口老龄化有显著的影响,其中出生率为显著的反向抑制影响,其他均为正向促进作用。分别使用空间滞后和空间误差面板计量经济模型对省域人口老龄化的空间溢出作用进行分析,结果表明:不能显著地认为邻近区域的人口老龄化影响到本省域的人口老龄化,但是本省域的一些被忽略的其他因子,如政府公共政策和户籍制度等对邻近省域的人口老龄化具有很强的空间溢出效应,实证结果高达47%。同时,本文研究结论也可以为我国人口老龄化理论与政策研究提供新兴的思路与方法。

关键词： 财政支出结构   经济增长   收入分配   GMM模型  

摘要： 选取广西14个地级市2007~2013年的面板数据,采用系统GMM计量经济模型对上述经济关系进行实证分析。研究表明,广西不同类别的财政支出对促进经济增长和缩小城乡差距有着不同的作用,在此基础上,对广西财政支出的规模和结构优化提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词： MARS (Planet)   ECONOMIC models   SUSTAINABILITY   MONTE Carlo method   MARTIAN exploration  

摘要： This paper reports on our effort to develop an ensemble of specialized models to explore the commercial potential of mining water/ice on Mars in support of a Mars Colony. This ensemble starts with a formal systems architecting framework to describe a Mars Colony and capture its artifacts' parameters and technical attributes. The resulting database is then linked to a variety of "downstream" analytic models. In particular, we integrated an extraction process (i.e., "mining") model, a simulation of the colony's environmental control and life support infrastructure known as HabNet, and a risk-based economics model. The mining model focuses on the technologies associated with in situ resource extraction, processing, storage and handling, and delivery. This model computes the production rate as a function of the systems' technical parameters and the local Mars environment. HabNet simulates the fundamental sustainability relationships associated with establishing and maintaining the colony's population. The economics model brings together market information, investment and operating costs, along with measures of market uncertainty and Monte Carlo techniques, with the objective of determining the profitability of commercial water/ice in situ mining operations. All told, over 50 market and technical parameters can be varied in order to address "what-if" questions, including colony location.