关键词： Cost-effectiveness   Markov model   return on investment   smoking cessation   tobacco   tobacco control  

摘要： Background and Aims Although clear benefits are associated with reducing smoking, there is increasing pressure on public health providers to justify investment in tobacco control measures. Decision-makers need tools to assess the Return on Investment (ROI)/cost-effectiveness of programmes. The EQUIPT project adapted an ROI tool for England to four European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Hungary). EQUIPTMOD, the economic model at the core of the ROI tool, is designed to assess the efficiency of packages of smoking cessation interventions. The objective of this paper is to describe themethods for EQUIPTMOD and identify key outcomes associated with continued and cessation of smoking. Methods EQUIPTMOD uses a Markov model to estimate life-time costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and life years associated with a current and former smoker. It uses population data on smoking prevalence, disease prevalence, mortality and the impact of smoking combined with associated costs and utility effects of disease. To illustrate the tool's potential, costs, QALYs and life expectancy were estimated for the average current smoker for five countries based on the assumptions that they continue and that they cease smoking over the next 12 months. Costs and effects were discounted at country-specific rates. Results For illustration, over a life-time horizon, not quitting smoking within the next 12 months in England will reduce life expectancy by 0.66, reduce QALYs by 1.09 and result in 4961 pound higher disease-related health care costs than if the smoker ceased smoking in the next 12months. For all age-sex categories, costs were lower and QALYs higher for those who quit smoking in the 12 months than those who continued. Conclusions EQUIPTMOD facilitates assessment of the cost effectiveness of smoking cessation strategies. The demonstrated results indicate large potential benefits from smoking cessation at both an individual and population level.

关键词： 改进的层次K均值聚类法   熵权法   供需函数   打包  

摘要： 首先,对数据预处理,通过MATLAB软件,利用改进的层次K均值聚类法对任务进行聚类;然后,分析影响任务定价的主要因素,确定用来刻画任务定价的合理指标;最后,利用熵权法对指标赋值,结合微观经济中的供需函数建立任务定价模型,并在此基础上建立任务打包情况下的定价模型。

关键词： 电力市场   改革   新模式   经济模型  

摘要： 未来电网企业统购统销的经营模式将改变,供电侧和售电侧的市场将逐步放开,电网企业的收入将由政府核定的输配电“准许成本+准许收益”确定,因此如何在电改政策出台后尽快适应新形势成为电网企业可持续发展的重点。文章利用科学的成本费用管控手段,将“两管五分”成本管理手段融入成本闭环管理流程,以财务管理信息系统为支撑实现成本管控的科学化、精细化与标准化。通过成本精益管理体系,从市局层面节约成本、提升价值、提供成本管理能力,将挑战变成机遇,助力网省公司在电改方案落地后的可持续发展。

关键词： 热传导   一维非稳态   分析解   残差分析  

摘要： 本文中就一种给定若干属性的消防服材料,进行它的专业性能研究,对该问题的不同情况开展针对性的研究,建立相应的数学模型,通过已知材料属性与给定实验数据,评测该消防服设计的安全性以及对模型的改进与优化。

关键词： 空间经济学   要素流动模型   流动市场   集聚力   本地市场效应  

摘要： 文章通过引入衡量流动要素收入流与支出流空间同步程度的“市场转移指数”的指标,构建了一般化的要素流动模型。结论显示,市场转移指数与区际贸易成本在决定长期空间经济均衡方面存在“替代”关系,当贸易成本既定时,市场转移指数同样可能引发空间均衡的集聚突变,同时产生与贸易成本类似的其他空间经济标杆效应。此外,“自由资本”和“自由企业家”成为本模型框架下的两个特例。

关键词： 农民收入   农业技术进步   经济计量模型  

摘要： 河北省是华北平原上农业大省,拥有辽阔的耕地面积,2016年河北省的农村人口为3613.7万,占全省总人口的48.67%。加强农业科技进步是河北省更好地提高农民收入,巩固农业经济发展,促进河北省社会进步的重要课题。本文运用EViews软件建立了计量回归模型和方程,构建了河北省农民收入这一变量与农业技术进步这一变量计量经济二元一次模型。

关键词： 多元线性回归   粮食产量   影响因素   政策建议  

摘要： 近年来,粮食安全问题受到了越来越广泛的关注。四川省,作为农业大省,其粮食产量的波动,对全省乃至全国经济、粮食安全均产生重要影响。四川省粮食产量受到多方面因素的影响。选取播种面积、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、化肥施用量、受灾面积作为影响四川省粮食产量的主要变量来分析,从而提出提升四川省粮食产量的合理化政策建议。

关键词： 汇率波动   社会福利   汇率传导   新开放宏观经济学  

摘要： 在新开放宏观经济理论的基础上,构建一个两国新开放宏观经济模型来研究汇率波动对一国社会福利的影响。研究表明,汇率波动对社会福利的影响在不同汇率传导程度下有不同的表现;同时汇率波动对小型开放经济体和大型经济体社会福利的影响存在差异;现实经济的运行中汇率波动对一国社会福利有显著的影响;汇率波动给社会福利所带来影响的方向由本国经济的开放程度、劳动供给的弹性以及产品价格的弹性等因素综合决定。

关键词： hydrogen   hydrogen economy   renewable energy   photovoltaic thermal   wind turbine   biogas   geothermal energy   exergy   low-exergy buildings   net-zero targets  

摘要： The energy base of urban settlements requires greater integration of renewable energy sources. This study presents a "hydrogen city" model with two cycles at the district and building levels. The main cycle comprises of hydrogen gas production, hydrogen storage, and a hydrogen distribution network. The electrolysis of water is based on surplus power from wind turbines and third-generation solar photovoltaic thermal panels. Hydrogen is then used in central fuel cells to meet the power demand of urban infrastructure. Hydrogen-enriched biogas that is generated from city wastes supplements this approach. The second cycle is the hydrogen flow in each low-exergy building that is connected to the hydrogen distribution network to supply domestic fuel cells. Make-up water for fuel cells includes treated wastewater to complete an energy-water nexus. The analyses are supported by exergy-based evaluation metrics. The Rational Exergy Management Efficiency of the hydrogen city model can reach 0.80, which is above the value of conventional district energy systems, and represents related advantages for CO2 emission reductions. The option of incorporating low-enthalpy geothermal energy resources at about 80 degrees C to support the model is evaluated. The hydrogen city model is applied to a new settlement area with an expected 200,000 inhabitants to find that the proposed model can enable a nearly net-zero exergy district status. The results have implications for settlements using hydrogen energy towards meeting net-zero targets.