关键词： 储能电池   一次调频   成本—效益   容量配置  

摘要： 规模间歇电源并网引起的电网频率问题,导致对引入储能辅助调频的研究越发迫切。提出一种考虑储能电池参与一次调频技术经济模型的容量配置方法。阐述了储能电池功率和容量设计的通用方法;通过分析储能电池在调频运行过程中的成本和效益,基于全寿命周期理论,运用净现值法结合仿真模型构建储能电池参与一次调频的技术经济模型;设计了一种储能电池参与一次调频的充放电策略,在此基础上,考虑受风电出力波动影响的电网综合负荷,从与之对应的电网频率信号波动特性出发,在确定的电网调频及储能电池运行要求约束下,得出调频效果最优、经济性最优以及两者综合最优目标下的储能电池容量配置方案。仿真结果表明了该方法的合理性及有效性。本研究有助于推动储能电池在辅助调频服务上的示范与工程化应用。

关键词： 中国对外贸易   经济增速   宏观经济模型   恢复性增长   全球经济   GDP   CPI   季报  

摘要： 中国季度宏观经济模型2017年秋季报告预测：2017年,中国经济增速将小幅提高,GDP将增长6.80%,增速比2016年提高0.10个百分点;CPI预计上涨1.72%,涨幅比2016年下降0.29个百分点.报告显示,2017年下半年至2018年,全球经济的同步复苏将继续促进中国对外贸易的恢复性增长.

关键词： 图书市场   发展阶段   因子分析   多元线性回归   数学建模   产值预测  

摘要： 文章汇总了1978年至2016年我国各年度宏观经济指标与图书出版业主要数据,发现自改革开放以来,无论是依据内部指标,还是外部指标,中国图书市场都存在四个特征明显各异的阶段。然后基于分期数据,文章通过因子分析和多元线性回归数学建模,建立了中国图书市场规模宏观经济模型。模型提示,自1999年以来,中国图书市场规模主要与社会宏观经济指标相关,而与图书行业的产出关系较小,且其发展过程中,城镇的推动作用远大于农村。最后,文章依据模型与"十三五"规划控制指标,预测了2020年中国图书市场规模,讨论了中国图书市场面临的机遇与挑战。

关键词： health economics   cost-effectiveness analysis   medical decision making   peer-review  

摘要： The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine convened on December 7, 2016 at the National Academy of Medicine to disseminate their recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Following its summary, panel proceedings included lengthy discussions including the field's struggle to disseminate findings efficiently through peer-reviewed literature to target audiences. With editors of several medical and outcomes research journals in attendance, there was consensus that findings of cost-effectiveness analyses do not effectively reach other researchers or health care providers. The audience members suggested several solutions including providing additional training to clinicians in cost-effectiveness research and requiring that cost-effectiveness models are made publicly available. However, there remains the questions of whether making economic modelers' work open-access through journals is fair under the defense that these models remain one's own intellectual property, or whether journals can properly manage the peer-review process specifically for cost-effectiveness analyses. In this article, we elaborate on these issues and provide some suggested solutions that may increase the dissemination and application of cost-effectiveness literature to reach its intended audiences and ultimately benefit the patient. Ultimately, it is our combined view as economic modelers and clinicians that cost-effectiveness results need to reach the clinician to improve the efficiency of medical practice, but that open-access models do not improve clinician access or interpretation of the economics of medicine.

关键词： ECONOMIC models   PUBLIC health   DECISION making   REGRESSION analysis   MEDICAL economics  

摘要： Health economic evaluation is a framework for the comparative analysis of the incremental health gains and costs associated with competing decision alternatives. The process of developing health economic models is usually complex, financially expensive and time-consuming. For these reasons, model development is sometimes based on previous model-based analyses;this endeavour is usually referred to as model replication. Such model replication activity may involve the comprehensive reproduction of an existing model or 'borrowing' all or part of a previously developed model structure. Generally speaking, the replication of an existing model may require substantially less effort than developing a new de novo model by bypassing, or undertaking in only a perfunctory manner, certain aspects of model development such as the development of a complete conceptual model and/or comprehensive literature searching for model parameters. A further motivation for model replication may be to draw on the credibility or prestige of previous analyses that have been published and/or used to inform decision making. The acceptability and appropriateness of replicating models depends on the decision-making context: there exists a trade-off between the 'savings' afforded by model replication and the potential 'costs' associated with reduced model credibility due to the omission of certain stages of model development. This paper provides an overview of the different levels of, and motivations for, replicating health economic models, and discusses the advantages, disadvantages and caveats associated with this type of modelling activity. Irrespective of whether replicated models should be considered appropriate or not, complete replicability is generally accepted as a desirable property of health economic models, as reflected in critical appraisal checklists and good practice guidelines. To this end, the feasibility of comprehensive model replication is explored empirically across a small number

关键词： information dissemination   publishing   software   computer simulation   health policy   cost-benefit analysis   health economics  

摘要： To enhance the credibility and the value of health economic analyses, we argue that the computer model source code underlying these analyses should be made publicly available. Only with open publication is it possible for others to assess whether alternative assumptions, beyond those examined by the model authors, alter the model's findings. Because reproducibility is critical for scientific acceptance and because computation increasingly permeates scientific inquiry, other fields have moved toward open publication of computer models, and health economics should avoid falling behind. Making source code available shines a light on these otherwise black boxes and facilitates their complete evaluation and understandability. The preceding commentary makes 2 arguments against open publication. It claims first that open publication would undermine intellectual property rights and discourage work in this field. We respond that the impact on intellectual property would be minimal, and that open publication could even increase model value. The second argument against open publication is the possibility of model misuse. If anything, however, open publication would reduce this risk by making the model implementation completely transparent. We argue finally that open publication of models would have ancillary benefits by making the research more amenable for adaptation and innovation. Moving toward open publication will present challenges, but we believe that the benefits of increased scientific credibility and utility, particularly for health policy and clinical practice decisions, will certainly outweigh the harms.

关键词： health economics   cost-effectiveness analysis   medical decision making   peer-review  

摘要： The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses has a number of questions unanswered with respect to the implementation of transparent, open source code interface for economic models. The possibility of making economic model source code could be positive and progressive for the field;however, several unintended consequences of this system should be first considered before complete implementation of this model. First, there is the concern regarding intellectual property rights that modelers have to their analyses. Second, the open source code could make analyses more accessible to inexperienced modelers, leading to inaccurate or misinterpreted results. We propose several resolutions to these concerns. The field should establish a licensing system of open source code such that the model originators maintain control of the code use and grant permissions to other investigators who wish to use it. The field should also be more forthcoming towards the teaching of cost-effectiveness analysis in medical and health services education so that providers and other professionals are familiar with economic modeling and able to conduct analyses with open source code. These types of unintended consequences need to be fully considered before the field's preparedness to move forward into an era of model transparency with open source code.

关键词： 房价   截面数据   逐步回归   EVIEW软件  

摘要： 本文以住房价格作为研究对象,将影响房价的因素从房产的消费品与投资品两重属性着手,分为需求因素、供给因素以及宏观经济变量三个方面。为考察影响房价的市场本身因素,采用了35个大中城市的截面数据对影响房价的因素进行定量分析。在定量分析过程中,借助EVIEW软件,建立变量间的回归模型,并通过逐步回归修正回归模型,从而成立最终影响房价因素的回归方程。