关键词： 经济模型   假设的现实性  

摘要： 本文试图在工具主义背景下讨论经济模型假设的现实性问题,以指出实在主义在解释经济模型性质方面替代工具主义的潜力。

关键词： 境界优选   块体模型   浮动圆锥法   经济模型  

摘要： 露天矿的境界优选是开采设计和生产过程中的重要环节,优选结果直接影响矿山的经济效益和安全生产。借助Datamine软件建立了某铁矿矿体块段模型,利用浮动圆锥法生成了序列境界,并结合生产实际对序列境界进行深入分析,最终确定最优经济合理剥采比为12m^3/m^3,相比优选前矿石量增加了21 480.81万t,大大提高了矿山企业的经济效益。

关键词： 诺贝尔经济学奖   罗默   诺德   瑞典皇家科学院   宏观经济模型   经济学家   气候变化   技术创新  

摘要： 10月8日,瑞典皇家科学院宣布,将2018年的诺贝尔经济学奖授予两名美国经济学家威廉·诺德豪斯（William ***）和保罗·罗默（Paul ***）,以表彰两人将技术创新和气候变化引入长期宏观经济模型分析框架所作出的贡献.

关键词： 社会融资规模   经济增长   空间溢出   空间自相关  

摘要： 文章基于辽宁省14市2006-2016年面板数据,采用空间计量经济模型对社会融资规模的经济增长效应进行实证研究。结果显示,社会融资规模及其结构呈现较强的空间相关性,对地区经济增长影响存在空间溢出效应,但影响强度逐年下降。社会融资结构对实体经济影响程度不同,直接融资的经济增长效果较好,但持续时间短,保险公司赔偿的影响稍弱,间接融资的影响更弱。社会融资规模对经济增长影响存在区域非对称性,经济较发达地区社会融资规模影响强度较小,经济欠发达地区影响强度较大。最后,基于实证结论提出对策建议。

关键词： Economic models   Econometrics   Macroeconomics   Decision making   Randomized controlled trials  

摘要： Evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is used to support regulatory approval and reimbursement decisions. I discuss how these decisions are typically made and argue that the amount of sample data and regulatory authorities' concerns over multiplicity are irrelevant when making reimbursement decisions. Decision analytic models (DAMs) are usually necessary to meet the requirements of an economic evaluation. DAMs involve inputs relating to health benefits and resource use that represent unknown true population parameters. Evidence about parameters may come from a variety of sources, including RCTs, and uncertainty about parameters is represented by their joint posterior distribution. Any impact of multiplicity is mitigated through the prior distribution. I illustrate my perspective with three examples: the estimation of a treatment effect on a rare event;the number of RCTs available in a meta-analysis;and the estimation of population mean overall survival. I conclude by recommending that reimbursement decisions should be followed by an assessment of the value of sample information and the DAM revised structurally as necessary and to include any new sample data that may be generated.

关键词： urban housing price   regional systemic financial risk   spatial contagion  

摘要： The regional systemic financial risks driven by escalating urban housing prices have been of great concern recently. Based on the theoretical analyses on the mechanism of formation of regional systemic financial risk driven by urban housing price fluctuations, this paper builds panel spatial economic models to empirically analyze the relationship between urban housing price fluctuations and regional systemic financial risks, in addition to their spatial linkages, in 13 cities in Jiangsu, a representative province of China. The empirical results show the following. (1) The excessive investment or speculation of local governments, banks, real estate developers, individuals, and families on the housing market stimulate the escalation in urban housing prices, leading to the systemic financial risks;(2) Urban housing prices and the land supply price of local governments have strong spatial contagion effects among cities, which will diffuse risks to adjacent cities, causing regional systemic financial risk;(3) Compared with North Jiangsu, South Jiangsu has more serious investment expansion from real estate developers and stronger spatial contagion effects, suggesting the existence of heavier regional systemic financial risks derived from housing price fluctuations;(4) North Jiangsu has slightly stronger "imitative behavior" among local governments, and fewer "substitution effects" of central cities' demand to adjacent cities' demand than does South Jiangsu.

关键词： FISHERY economics   FISHERIES   SUSTAINABILITY   SEASONAL distribution of fishes   ENVIRONMENTAL impact analysis  

摘要： An individual-based bio-economic model is presented and applied to the Bay of Biscay sole (Solea solea) fishery to investigate alternative quota management systems from a multicriteria perspective. For this study, the model integrates several institutional arrangements related to catch share management. The current French co-management system with nontransferability of quota is compared with an alternative individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in a context of transition to maximum sustainable yield. Trade-offs between ecological and socioeconomic impacts are highlighted and the effectiveness of governance scenarios is discussed in regard to the challenge of capacity adjustment. Results emphasize that the introduction of ITQs is expected to reduce by 40% the number of vessels in the fishery. While effectively mitigating the economic impacts of the transition phase to maximum sustainable yield, ITQs are also expected to increase substantially the fishing effort by trawlers, which may cause ecological concerns. The scenarios tested also include the simulation of a decommissioning scheme where subsequent decommissioned vessels are considerably different from the vessels that would lease out their quotas in an ITQ system, resulting in differentiated ecological and socioeconomic impacts between scenarios.

关键词： Agent-based modelling   Evolutionary economics   Climate change   Climate-economic modelling   Bounded rationality   Learning  

摘要： In climate-economic modelling, agent-based models are still an exception. Although numerous authors have discussed the usefulness of the approach, only a few models exist. The paper proposes an update to a multi-agent climate-economic model, namely the "battle of perspectives" (Janssen, 1996;Janssen and de Vries 1998). The approach of the paper is twofold. First, the reimplementation of the model follows the "model to model" concept. Supporters of the approach argue that replication is a useful way to check a model's accuracy and robustness. Second, updating a model with current data and new scientific evidence is a robustness check in itself. The long-term validity and usefulness of a model depends on the variability of the data on which it is based, as well as on the model's sensitivity to data changes. By offering this update, the paper contributes to the development of agent-based models in climate-economics. Acknowledging evolutionary processes in climate-policy represents a useful complement to intertemporal cost-benefit analyses, the latter of which derive optimal protection paths but are not able to explain why people do not follow them. Since the replication and update succeeded, the paper recommends using the model as a basis for further analysis.

关键词： Group-theoretic bifurcation theory   hexagonal lattice   self-organization   spatial economy   stability  

摘要： Self-organization of spatial patterns is investigated for a scalar field of a system of locations on a hexagonal lattice. Group-theoretic bifurcation analysis is conducted to exhaustively try and find possible bifurcating patterns. All these patterns are proved to be asymptotically unstable for general spatial economic models in new economic geography. Microeconomic interactions among the locations are expressed by a spatial economy model and all bifurcating patterns are demonstrated to be unstable by numerical bifurcation analysis.