关键词： Model predictive control (MPC)   Building climate control   Heat pump   Battery storage   Thermal energy storage   Domestic hot water  

摘要： This article investigates the potential of economic model predictive control of complex residential energy systems with electric coupling to the public grid. The examined system includes a battery energy storage system, photovoltaic power generation, an air-to-water heat pump, thermal energy storage and a building model. The said power generation provides energy for electric loads as well as domestic hot water and space heating. Model predictive control algorithms manage the energy system by nonlinear global optimization. Within this optimization, a time-varying state space model, which is derived from the energy system simulation model, reflects the system dynamics. Owing to the resulting high complexity, two algorithms for distributed model predictive control are developed. In addition, the developed approaches are compared to a common reference control concept as well as centralized model predictive control. For the comparison of annual operational costs, current German energy prices and subsidies are implemented into the economic calculation. Results show an improved performance of the developed approaches with 11.6% cost reduction in comparison to the reference. This is achieved through an increase of the heat pump seasonal performance factor by 3.4%, reduced curtailment of electrical photovoltaic energy to 21.5% of the reference value and prevention of auxiliary heater operation. Furthermore, increased photovoltaic self-consumption by the heat pump results in a slight reduction of battery storage operation. In conjunction with monetary and energetic advantages, model predictive control increases the comfort in regards to the violation of minimum limits for the comfort criteria.

关键词： Model coupling   Economic modelling   Environmental assessement   Integrated assessment   Regional policy   Sustainability  

摘要： This review analyses and compares the most promising methods to perform ex ante economic and environmental assessment of policies at the meso scale, i.e. from local communities to subnational regions. These methods called Economic-Environment Integrated Models (EEIM) are based on the coupling of formalised economic modelling tools with environmental assessment methods. The economic modelling tools considered are Input Output (IO) models, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models, Agent-Based models (ABM), and System Dynamics (SD) models, which we pair with environmental assessment methods such as Footprints (FP), Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), or Material Flow Analysis (MFA). A grid of criteria is developed to perform a qualitative rating of the EEIMs according to existing literature. The grid encompasses the detail level of the economic modelling, the level of coupling between environmental and economic tools, the quality and diversity of indicators, the ability to account for diverse indirect effects, spatial differentiation, time aspects, and the coupled model usability. First, the results show that the couplings do not perform on the same criteria, which shows complementarity to deal with diverse issues. Second, overall, for most criteria, PE/CGE models coupled with FP/LCA ranked highest. Third, a few case studies showed that couplings involving a third tool can be beneficial- for instance AB modelling or MFA with PE/CGE-LCA/FP may allow to overcome some shortcomings such as agent behaviour modelling or data availability for biophysical flows. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： circular economy   material circularity index   sustainability   asphalt pavements   reclaimed asphalt   asphalt recycling  

摘要： The transition of the road engineering industry to a circular way of doing business requires more efficient and sustainable resources, energy, and waste management. The rates in which reclaimed asphalt is being recycled or reused in the asphalt mixture production process constitutes a crucial parameter in this transition. This paper aims at establishing a further step towards the combined circularity and sustainability of asphalt pavements, by introducing a framework for quantifying their Material Circularity Index. The framework is based on the methodology proposed by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation and accordingly tailored for the context of asphalt pavements. This study, thus, attempts to provide a thorough analysis of the Reclaimed Asphalt's recycling rates and trends on a European scale and to identify whether the efficiency of the current recycling practices is adequate or not. Moreover, a case study has been undertaken in order to quantify the Material Circularity index of the asphalt pavements forming Italy's motorway network, following the proposed framework. For representative and accuracy reasons, the Material Circularity index of wearing, binder, and base courses has been calculated separately, and the results interestingly indicate that the base course exhibits the highest rates of circularity.

关键词： 农村   GIS   贫困   空间计量经济模型   影响因素   云南省  

摘要： 农村减贫一直是政府和学术界关注的焦点。为客观揭示区域农村贫困影响因素,促进区域性宏观减贫政策的有效制定与实施,进一步提高减贫成效。该文以农村贫困典型区域的云南省为研究对象,结合区域贫困空间关联性,运用空间计量经济模型分析方法与GIS空间分析技术,分析探讨了全省129个县(区、市)2010-2015年间县域农村贫困格局、主要影响因素及空间影响效应,并分区域提出了减贫政策建议。结果表明:1)云南省县域农村贫困空间上表现出"中心-外围-边角"的低、中、高贫困分布格局,贫困程度较高的区域主要集中在滇西北、滇东北、滇西南及滇南地区,主要涉及金沙江、澜沧江、怒江及红河等流域地带。2)空间滞后模型(spatial lag model, SLM)回归结果显示,地形起伏度、到所在市政府的交通距离、农村15岁及以上文盲率、每千人医疗机构床位数、农村65岁及以上老年人比例5个因子是造成近年来云南省县域农村贫困的显著影响因素,5个因子的回归系数分别为0.005、0.044、0.380、-1.257和-2.132。3)农村贫困存在区域差异性,云南省区域扶贫开发需针对区域贫困程度和主要致贫因素精准施策,并强化相邻县域之间合力攻坚,巩固减贫成效。该文重点关注的空间效应是区域农村贫困研究的重要内容,可以为制定科学、合理的区域性减贫政策提供参考。

关键词： 原油稳定   经济模型   常规负压闪蒸工艺   气提技术   稳定深度  

摘要： 为使原油稳定经济效益最大化,建立了经济模型,以某处理站原油全烃色谱分析实验数据及现场实际运行工况为基础,利用HYSYS流程模拟软件对常规负压稳定工艺进行模拟,分析了稳定塔操作压力及温度对原油稳定、轻烃回收量的影响,并将模拟结果导入经济模型,得出结论,即以降低稳定塔操作压力和提升稳定塔操作温度来提高原油稳定深度与轻烃回收量,从实际情况与经济的角度来说都是不可取的。在常规负压稳定工艺的基础上,引入气提技术,利用HYSYS软件对其模拟,并将模拟结果导入经济模型,结果表明气提负压稳定工艺无论从稳定深度、分离效果、轻烃回收量、经济效益都优于常规负压闪蒸稳定工艺;同时研究了气提气量及不同气提组分对稳定工艺的影响,结果表明,气提气组分越贫,气提效果越明显,影响气提效果的主要是气提气中的C_1～C_5的含量,气提气中N_2和CO_2的含量对气提效果几乎没有任何影响。

关键词： Economic model predictive control   Moving horizon estimation   Mechanical pulping process   Stability  

摘要： We develop a multi-objective economic model predictive control (m-econ MPC) framework to control and optimize a nonlinear mechanical pulping (MP) process. M-econ MPC interprets economic MPC as a multi-objective optimization problem that trades off economic and set-point tracking performance. This interpretation allows us to construct a stabilizing constraint that guarantees closed-loop stability. The framework infers unmeasured states of the MP process (associated with product consistency) by using a moving horizon estimator (MHE). The MP process dynamics are described by using a nonlinear Wiener model. Examples from a two-stage high-consistency MP process are employed to demonstrate that significant improvements in economic performance are achievable.

关键词： 风力发电机组   经济模型预测控制   经济性能   风能利用   疲劳负荷  

摘要： 在风力发电控制系统中,模型预测控制是降低发电成本、提高能源利用率的有效方式。经济模型预测控制,旨在用一个优化问题实现不同区域控制目标,同时实现运行区域间的高效切换。以5 MW风电机组作为研究对象,对两种控制策略进行了仿真对比。结果表明经济模型预测控制不仅实现机组不同区域的控制目标同时提高闭环经济性能,尤其在区域切换过程中,可以有效提高风能利用,减小结构疲劳,对改善风电的电能质量,延长机组使用寿命具有重要意义。

关键词： Bifurcation   Economic agglomeration   Racetrack economy   Replicator dynamics   Spatial economy model  

摘要： Racetrack economy is a conventional spatial platform for economic agglomeration in spatial economy models. Studies of this economy up to now have been conducted mostly on 2(k) cities, for which agglomerations proceed via so-called spatial period doubling bifurcation cascade. This paper aims at the elucidation of agglomeration mechanisms of the racetrack economy in a general setting of an arbitrary number of cities. First, an attention was paid to the existence of invariant solutions that retain their spatial distributions when the transport cost parameter is changed. A complete list of possible invariant solutions, which are inherent for replicator dynamics and are dependent on the number of cities, is presented. Next, group-theoretic bifurcation theory is used to describe bifurcation from the uniform state, thereby presenting an insightful information on spatial agglomerations. Among a plethora of theoretically possible invariant solutions, those which actually become stable for spatial economy models are obtained numerically. Asymptotic agglomeration behavior when the number of cities become very large is studied.

关键词： 企业所有制   区域环境污染   溢出效应   空间计量经济模型  

摘要： 通过熵权法构建全面反映区域环境污染综合指数,进行全局空间自相关Moran'I指数检验和局域空间自相关Moran散点图检验,发现区域环境污染呈现显著的区域依赖特征,即区域环境污染存在空间溢出效应;对2011—2016年全国省市自治区采用空间计量经济模型实证研究,发现外资企业抑制了环境污染的溢出效应,而国有企业和私营企业加剧了环境污染溢出效应。同时,对控制变量经济发展、产业结构和知识资本存量对区域环境污染溢出效应的影响进行了实证分析。