关键词： Government policy   Income taxation   Inequality   Public expenditure   Size of government  

摘要： This paper contributes to the literature on majority voting over fiscal policies. We depart from the standard model in two dimensions. First, besides redistributing income, the government uses the net tax revenue to finance the provision of goods and services that become in-kind transfers to the citizens. By deciding on the composition of this expenditure (education, health, law-and-order, etc.), the government chooses the allocation of the benefits to the different income segments. This choice is a fundamental ingredient of fiscal policy. Second, we tackle the problem of choosing the income tax function and the composition of public expenditure by assuming that the political process selects one of these issues as the salient one. Political controversy and vote focus on this issue exclusively. The other dimension is determined in a way so as to minimize objections (obtain consensus) among the voters. We analyze the case where the salient policy is the composition of public expenditure. We show that for each voted expenditure policy, there is a unique income tax function that attains consensus. The political process we model yields that the progressiveness of the income tax schedule depends on income inequality interacted with the elasticity of substitution of the goods provided in the market and those publicly provided. This relationship is confirmed in our empirical test.

关键词： Nonlinear dynamics   Monetary and fiscal policies   Bifurcations   Multistability  

摘要： In this paper we consider a nonlinear model for the real economy described by a multiplier-accelerator setup. The model comprises the government sector, which influences the output dynamics by means of the fiscal policy, and the money market, where the money supply depends upon the fluctuations in the economic activity. Through rigorous analytical tools combined with numerical simulations, we investigate the stability conditions of the unique steady state and the emergence of different kinds of endogenous dynamics, which are the results of the action of the fiscal and the monetary policy through their reactivity degrees. Such policies, if properly tuned, can lead the economy toward the desired full employment target but, on the other hand, can also generate endogenous fluctuations in the pace of the economic activity, associated with the occurrence of closed invariant curves and multistability phenomena. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Energy hubs   Energy storage systems   Two-stage robust optimization   Lifetime of batteries   Dual norm  

摘要： The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in integrated energy system makes it necessary to consider uncertainty, appropriate investment and scientific operation for energy storage systems, including battery energy storage systems and thermal energy storage systems. In this paper, we propose a two-stage robust planning-operation co-optimization method for Energy Hub considering uncertainties from renewable energy resources as well as multi-load demands, the sizing problem and precise economic model of energy storage systems, in which lifetime loss cost of battery energy storage systems and static loss of thermal energy storage systems are mainly included. Integer variables exist in both stages, thus in the proposed method, dual norms are used to transform uncertain constraints into robust counterparts with which the worst cases are calculated directly, then the problem is merged into a single stage mixed integer linear program. In case studies, optimal planning strategies including multiple storages in Energy Hub are explored under the consideration of sizing problem and uncertainties, and it's found that simultaneously constructing multiple energy storages can have mutually beneficial relationships and propose more economic planning/operation strategies. Then it's validated that precise energy storage model can better improve economics and flexibility of Energy Hub both in longer term and short term planning optimization. Meanwhile, convergence speed of the model and solution algorithm in this paper is acceptable for practical planning problem.

关键词： REDD   Integrated assessment models   REDD risk   REDD opportunity costs   Non-linear damages   Monte Carlo simulation  

摘要： Compared to conventional abatement measures, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) offers attractive cost savings while tackling the climate change problem. However, there exist challenges associated with the selection of the optimal level of REDD-based abatement given the risks and non-uniform costs of their implementation across countries. This paper develops an integrated assessment model of carbon mitigation, incorporating the REDD option. Using a dynamic optimization framework, it derives the optimal timing and level of REDD participation for key countries with REDD potential based on their opportunity costs and risks. Specifically, Brazil, Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Papua New Guinea, are chosen for inclusion under the REDD-based abatement option. Together, these five countries account for roughly 20 percent of global forest area and 40 percent of current global deforestation. The relevance and contribution of REDD-based abatement is explored under the possibility of non-linear damages resulting from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Results indicate that the REDD programme is an attractive option to consider despite the associated risks of impermanence. Including the REDD option, in fact, also increases conventional abatement efforts because low costs of REDD reduce the overall abatement costs, thereby making it optimal to abate more. Further, use of REDD option helps stabilise the atmospheric carbon stock in the long term. Without REDD, atmospheric carbon concentrations would be higher by 800 billion tonnes in the next 300 years. Whereas, optimal implementation of REDD in just five countries would help avoid the release of about 80 billion tonnes of carbon in the next 50 years.

关键词： 住宅租金   空间效应   克里金插值   空间计量经济模型   南京市  

摘要： 选取2009—2017年南京市“一主三副”的3198个住宅小区为研究单元,运用克里金插值法、热点分析法、空间计量经济模型等研究住宅租金的时空分异格局、空间效应及影响机制。结果表明:南京住宅租金总体呈上升趋势,具有显著的中心-外围模式,热点集聚区域分布在主城区,冷点集聚分布在3个副城。中心位势和交通位势对住宅租金起决定性作用,生活配套、餐饮配套、容积率、医疗设施和商务配套的影响也较为显著。研究结果可为管理住宅租赁市场、规范租赁行为提供参考依据。

关键词： Retrospective simulation   Backtesting   Hindcast   Model evaluation   Model validation   Buildings sector   Residential sector  

摘要： Model-based projections of energy demand are hardly ever confronted with observations. This shortfall threatens the credibility policy-makers might attach to integrated energy-economy models. One reason for it is the lack of historical data against which to calibrate models, a prerequisite for attempting to replicate past trends. In this paper, we (i) assemble piecemeal historical data to reconstruct the energy performance of the residential building stock of 1984 in France;(ii) calibrate Res-IRF, a bottom-up model of residential energy demand in France, against these data and run it to 2012. In a preliminary simulation with model parameters based only on the data that were known at the beginning of the simulated period, we find that the model accurately predicts energy consumption per m(2) aggregated over all dwelling types: the Mean Absolute Percentage Error is below 1.5% and 85% of the variance is explained, which builds confidence in the general accuracy of the Res-IRF model. Then we run 1920 simulations covering the uncertainty surrounding the parameters of the initial year. Even in simulations which fit the data best, energy demand is unevenly well replicated across fuels, which reveals some limitations in the ability of the model to capture politically-driven policies such as the expansion of the natural-gas distribution network. We discuss the directions for data collection which would ease comparison between simulations and observations in future hindcast experiments. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V.

关键词： Drug regulation   Health policy   Health services   Predictive markers  

摘要： The pharmacokinetics of many antidepressants (tricyclic antidepressants (TCA) or selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRI)) are influenced by the highly polymorphic CYP2D6 enzyme. Therefore, pharmacogenetics could play an important role in the treatment of depressive patients. The potential cost-utility of screening patients is however still unknown. Therefore, a Markov model was developed to compare the strategy of screening for CYP2D6 and subsequently adjust antidepressant treatment according to a patient's metabolizer profile of poor, extensive, or ultra metabolizer, with the strategy of no screening ('one size fits all' principle). Each week a patient had a probability of side effects, which was followed by dosage titration or treatment switching. After 6 weeks treatment effect was evaluated followed by treatment adjustments if necessary, with a total time horizon of the model of 12 weeks. The analysis was performed from a societal perspective. The strategy of screening compared with no screening resulted in incremental costs of (sic)91 (95 percentiles: (sic)39;(sic)152) more expensive but also more effect with 0.001 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) (95 percentiles: 0.001;0.002) gain. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was therefore (sic)77,406 per QALY gained, but varied between (sic)22,500 and (sic)377,500 depending on the price of screening and productivity losses. According to our model, we cannot unequivocally conclude that screening for CYP2D6 in primary care patients using antidepressants is be cost-effective, as the results are surrounded by large uncertainty. Therefore, information from ongoing studies should be used to reduce these uncertainties.

关键词： Fault-tolerant control   fault diagnosis   renewable energy systems   wind turbines   model-predictive control  

摘要： The operational cost of wind turbines (WT) is remarkably incurred in fatigue loads induced by torsional vibration within the drive-train subsystem and fore-aft bending of the tower subsystem. Under closed-loop control configuration, actuator faults in pitch subsystem and converter subsystem proliferate these fatigue loads, thereby, severely affect the economic operation of WT. In this paper, we present a novel active fault-tolerant control (FTC) methodology for WT, which minimizes the economic cost of WT by achieving the two broad objectives: power maximization and fatigue reduction, possibly under the effect of torque bias faults in converters. The proposed FTC system is composed of two modules: fault detection and diagnosis (FDD), and controller reconfiguration (CR). We develop the CR module using a model-predictive control (MPC) technique where the primary issue is that the constraint set is not convex in decision variables. The novelty of the proposed scheme lies in transforming the original nonconvex optimization problem into a convex problem using some new decision variables. We also develop the FDD module using an unknown-input-residual generator and a suitably designed estimation filter to extract the complete information of the fault. This fault information is subsequently used to reconfigure in real-time the constraints of the MPC to ensure system availability. The effectiveness of the developed scheme is demonstrated on a 2-MW wind turbine system.

关键词： VOC abatement   Non-thermal plasma   Economic analysis   Biofiltration   Mechanical-biological treatment  

摘要： Waste treatment plants emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmosphere, which can be both toxic and unpleasant for their smell. Biofiltration is a valuable option to decrease the amount of emitted VOCs under stationary conditions, while it suffers from problems under transient conditions. To overcome this drawback, an additional treatment before the biofiltration stage might be an effective strategy. In the present work, we evaluated the plasma treatment on some typical VOCs (alpha-pinene, ethyl isovalerate, and dimethyl disulphide) by considering, in particular, the energy cost of different removal rates and the consequent economic costs of scaling the laboratory setup to real-size plants. Depending on the desired target, the operating costs of different process schemes have been considered, and the most convenient operational mode has been identified. Our results suggest that the use of non-thermal plasmas as a pretreatment of a biofiltration stage in the waste treatment might be a valuable option. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 电能质量   DEA   分质定价   经济模型  

摘要： 在电力市场快速发展的推动下,电能的发电成本和不同电能质量等级的治理费用将共同决定用户的用电电价。首先介绍了电能质量的主要指标;其次通过数据包络分析法对电能质量作出综合评估,得到相应的综合等级;然后提出电能质量服务费的概念,建立用户与发电商的经济效益模型,设定在两者的综合效益达到最大时,可求得最合理的电能质量等级;最后根据用户与发电商的经济模型,通过实例可确定经济性最佳时的电能质量综合指数以及相应的综合电价。