关键词： 褐煤   间接液化工艺   经济模型   低碳工艺   油电联产   CCS   不确定参数  

摘要： 使用褐煤作为原料建立间接液化工艺的技术经济模型,对湿法进料和干法进料的液化工艺进行研究。结果表明,干法进料的Shell工艺比湿法进料的GE工艺性能更好,但在成本方面,湿法进料略有优势。通过使用二氧化碳捕集及封存技术(CCS),绝大多数的CO 2排放量可减少,而总成本增加不到1%。受煤种、气化方法和CO 2排放量等影响,液化产品的成本在75美元/桶~115美元/桶。考虑到不确定参数的影响,成本范围会扩大到50美元/桶~140美元/桶(90%置信区间)。油电联产虽投资较高,但生产的油更便宜。对于干法进料,其整体效率较高,而湿法进料的CO 2排放量较低。

关键词： Closed loop systems   Linear systems   Optimization   Predictive control   Stability   Simulation   Algorithms   Tradeoffs  

摘要： The paper studies an economic model predictive control (EMPC) problem for sampled-data linear systems with system constraints. The cost function consists of an economic part and a regulatory part, and a new EMPC algorithm with piecewise constant control is designed. Iterative feasibility of the designed optimization problem and input-to-state stability (ISS) of the closed-loop system are proved. In particular, we show that the closed-loop system is input-to-state stable with respect to the supremum norm of the economic cost, and the system state is ultimately bounded within a bound determined by the economic cost. Through thorough simulations, the effectiveness of the designed algorithm is verified and the tradeoff between control and economic performance is demonstrated.

关键词： economic history   entrepreneurial rents   entrepreneurship   strategic entrepreneurship   value creation  

摘要： Research Summary: How do new entrants create and capture value in established industries? Starting from the foundations of neoclassical economics, we model entrepreneurial entry and competition as occurring simultaneously in production technology space and product attribute space. Our model's central feature is to disaggregate entrepreneurial rents into four components: arbitrage, innovation, organization, and uncertainty-bearing. This permits us to model the nature of value creation from a common analytical platform, and to measure value capture as a set of distinct rent streams available to multiple stakeholders over time. Managerial Summary: Although there is broad consensus that the essence of entrepreneurship is the creation and capture of new value, both scholars and practitioners have struggled to connect this basic exhortation to the entrepreneurial process. This paper argues that returns to entrepreneurial action can be generated through four main mechanisms: innovation, uncertainty-bearing, new business models, or inter-industry arbitrage-either uniquely, or in combination. Examining these mechanisms for value creation together reveals implications for how best to organize and manage the entrepreneurial process so that that returns to entrepreneurial action can be appropriated equitably.

关键词： clinical high-risk for psychosis   early intervention   economic impact   first episode psychosis   prevention   psychosis   risk   schizophrenia  

摘要： Aim Early Intervention Psychosis Services (EIPS) for people experiencing First Episode Psychosis (FEP) offer important clinical and non-clinical benefits over standard care. Similarly, intervention for Clinical High Risk for Psychosis state (CHR-P) can prevent psychosis, ameliorate symptoms and have non-clinical benefits. This study aimed to estimate associated local economic benefits of FEP and CHR-P services compared with standard care. Methods Across four south London boroughs, proportion of annual number of new cases of FEP and CHR-P seen by early intervention services was estimated. Economic modelling conducted for England's mental health strategy was applied to estimate local economic impacts of current and improved service provision. Results Across four London boroughs during 2011/2012, proportion of 15-34 year olds with FEP seen by EIPS was 100.2% assuming 80/100 000 annual incidence whereas proportion with CHR-P seen by CHR-P services was 4.1% assuming 200/100 000 annual incidence. Application of economic modelling suggests that provision of EIPS to reach all new FEP cases each year would free up resources of 13.1m pound over 10 years including 2.0m pound to National Health Service (NHS) after the first year. Scaling up to reach all new CHR-P cases each year would free up resources of 19.7m pound over 10 years with an estimated 10-year cost of implementation gap for each 1 year cohort of 18.9m pound. An earlier related briefing resulted in increased funding for EIPS and new CHR-P services despite overall cuts to mental health services. Conclusions Estimation of local economic impacts of FEP and CHR-P services was associated with improved investment in such services.

关键词： 投资风险   经济模型   研究  

ISBN: (纸本)9787517836346

摘要： 本书稿是作者对近几年取得的有关时依风险模型的研究成果的系统整理和归类，主要阐述在允许索赔额与索赔发生的时间间隔具有一定的相依关系以及索赔非平稳发生等复杂条件下，风险模型中包括破产概率的渐近估计、精致大偏差和中偏差在内的渐近性质。

关键词： Housing price   financial risk   spatial diffusion   investment  

摘要： Financial risk derived from housing price fluctuations in China garnered much public concern recently. Based on the theoretical analyses of the transmission of financial risk from housing price fluctuations, this paper establishes panel spatial Durbin models to empirically analyse housing price fluctuations and financial risks transmission from a spatial economic perspective. Employing the panel provincial data from 1999-2015, we conduct an analysis on the 30 provinces in China as well as a comparison among the Eastern, Middle and Western regions of China. The results indicate that: (1) The soaring housing prices driven by bank credit, real estate developers' heavy investment, local governments' land revenue and individuals and households demands leads to financial risk in various sectors;(2) due to the 'substitution effect', the capital agglomeration in metropolis from bank credits, real estate developers, and individuals and households furthers the amassment of financial risks;(3) housing prices have a significant spatial contagion effect throughout the country, and financial risk could directly transmit across provinces through housing price fluctuations;(4) financial risks could indirectly transmit across provinces via the 'imitative behaviour' or 'driving effect' of different sectors for different regions of China.

关键词： 报业经济   新闻舆论工作   中国报业协会   注意力经济   多元化经营   报纸广告   转型路径   经济模型  

摘要： 中国报业正面临改革开放以来“未有之大变局”。一方面,全媒体不断发展,导致舆论生态、媒体格局、传播方式发生深刻变化,新闻舆论工作面临新的挑战;另一方面,基于注意力经济、影响力经济模型的报业经济“二次售卖”模式被打破,报业广告大幅下降趋势依旧。据CTR媒介智讯数据,2018年1-11月国内报纸广告刊登额同比降幅高达30.7%,规模已不足2011年的七分之一。加之多元化经营前景不明朗,2018年停刊、休刊的报纸多达53家。

关键词： 产业结构优化   空间异质性   碳排放  

摘要： 基于2003—2017年中国各省份面板数据,首先,运用空间固定效应杜宾模型,研究了产业结构优化对碳排放的影响。结果表明:产业结构优化降低了本省碳排放水平,但是通过分解产结构优化对碳排放的效应可知,虽然本省通过产业结构优化降低了本省碳排放,但却增加了邻近省份的碳排放量。其次,运用地理加权回归模型研究产业结构优化存在空间异质性对碳排放的影响。通过模型回归结果发现:发达省份的直接效应较小,而间接效应则较大,对于相对不发达的省份则相反。

关键词： 造价预算   成本控制   环境保护   经济模型  

摘要： 绿色建筑的建设理念与设计思路,决定了其造价预算与成本控制相对传统建筑具有特殊要求。材料价格波动、新技术应用、环境影响力、动态成本回收等特征均具有重要影响。为改善绿色建筑造价预算控制效果,需要建立以环境影响因素为核心的经济分析模型。其成本控制模型则需要采取时间序列分析法。基于建筑项目特征与其控制模型,采取合理的管控控制措施,可有效改善绿色建筑造价预算与成本控制效果。

关键词： 微观行为   基于主体的建模   宏观经济模型   动态随机一般均衡   新凯恩斯  

摘要： 现代经济学理论更加深入和更为精细地刻画分析微观主体行为,并与基于主体的建模和模拟方法(ABMs)相结合研究宏观经济问题,对增强宏观经济模型的科学性、解释力和预见性大有裨益。本文首先从深化微观行为基础、模拟经济运行机制、揭示宏观复杂现象等方面,将颇具代表性的DSGE、新凯恩斯系列、复杂演化系统建模等宏观经济模型与ABMs类模型进行对比分析。然后,本文指出了拓展微观基础、深入分析主体行为的必要性及重要意义,并探讨了宏观模型新特征、演进的内在动因和提升路径、未来宏观微观融合的趋势及存在的阻力与障碍。最后,本文指出了其在中国经济理论构建和政策分析评价应用中的适应性、改进方向及发展走势。