关键词： albumin   cost-effectiveness   economic model   septic shock  

摘要： Background The cost-effectiveness of albumin-based fluid support in patients with septic shock is currently unknown. Methods In a simulation study, we compared standard medical practice and systematic 20% albumin infusion. The study population consisted of patients with septic shock admitted to one of the 28 ICUs belonging to the Cub-Rea regional database between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016. Cost estimates were based on French diagnosis-related groups and fixed daily prices. Estimation of mortality reduction relied on ALBIOS trial data documenting a Risk Ratio of 0.87 in a non-preplanned subgroup of patients with septic shock. Life expectancy was estimated with follow up data of 184 patients with septic shock admitted in the year 2000 in the same ICUs. Several sensitivity analyses were performed including a one-way Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis (DSA) and a Probabilistic multivariate Sensitivity Analysis (PSA). Results About 6406 patients were included. In the base-case scenario, the mean live years gained with albumin was 0.49. The mean extra cost of using albumin was euro480 per year. The cost per year gained was euro974. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. The probability of albumin being cost-effective was 95% and 97% for a threshold fixed at euro20 000 and euro30 000 per life-year saved, respectively. Conclusion Based on the risk reduction observed in the septic shock subgroup analysis of the ALBIOS dataset, the application of the ALBIOS trial results to Cub-Rea data may suggest that albumin infusion is likely cost-effective in septic shock.

关键词： Integrated management   Suspended mussel-farming   Long-lines   Pole-cultures   Water circulation   Porous medium   Bio-economy   Spatial planning  

摘要： Suspended mussel-farming using cultivation socks, either in long-line or traditional pole cultivation structures, is a widely spread activity around the world. The sustainability and efficiency of the activity depends on a number of interrelated parameters, as is the natural availability of food, the physical and ecological characteristics of the coastal or marine area and the farmers' choices. The natural parameter which influences the activity the most and which can be a major controlling parameter for integrated management is adequate and uninhibited water circulation. The individual characteristics of the farming structures, as well as their spatial placing, can influence circulation, thus affecting food distribution, growth rates, productivity and profits of the mussel-farming activity. To assess this influence in an integrated manner, it is necessary to work in different levels of analysis and transdisciplinary domains, utilising multiple simulation models and taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the activity in different areas. This paper aims to demonstrate such an integrated management approach through: i) the high resolution assessment of the effect of farming structures on circulation, using a novel parameterisation of the cultivation socks as porous media;ii) the calibration of a traditional drag coefficient based on the results of the high resolution experiments, allowing a lower resolution analysis, necessary to implement assessments in cultivation area level and iii) the analysis and evaluation of alternative spatial planning configurations, both regarding hydrodynamics and bio-economic characteristics of the mussel-farming activity. The case study, used to demonstrate the methodology, was Thermaikos Gulf, in Northern Greece, the area producing more than 80% of the national mussel production and which has been facing critical management problems for more than 20 years. The integrated modelling approach resulted in the successful

关键词： charging station   electric vehicle   PVCS   V2G  

摘要： Energy consumption is increasing in parallel with the population and technological advancements. Albeit the energy efficiency efforts, industrial consumption, and transportation have quite important roles in this increase. The electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to constitute a positive solution to mitigate energy use in transportation. Increasing penetration of EVs into public transport provides new opportunities both for environmental sustainability and transportation infrastructure. To project the potential operator revenue, we set up a hybrid model (solar and storage), which optimizes scheduling for the EV charging unit and evaluates environmental and economic benefits. Different operational scenarios of PV-assisted charging stations will be simulated and solved with Rule-based decision making. Since regulations have an important role in building the optimization model, scenarios are created considering different European regulations. Uncertainties depending on the traffic jam (arrival-departure times), technological differences of the charging stations are encountered in the model. The results are compared among three different scenarios. Net present value of the system changes for different scenarios and electricity sale price is one of the main factors. This value tends to increase after an annual electricity sale price increase rate of 11%. Novelty statement In this study, the effect of different economic parameters on an electric vehicle charging station were analyzed. A system with electric vehicles, solar panel support, and external battery was mathematically modeled and a case study was done.

关键词： Blades   Control algorithms   Control equipment   Dynamics (Mechanics)   Energy storage   Fatigue   Flywheels   Integrated systems   Optimal control   Optimization   Predictive control   Rotors   Simulation results   Stress   Thrust   Wind   Wind energy   Wind power   Wind turbines   Wind velocity  

摘要： Wind power intermittency represents one of the major challenges facing the future growth of grid-connected wind energy projects. The integration of wind turbines and energy storage systems (ESS) provides a viable approach to mitigate the unfavorable impact on grid stability and power quality. In this study, an economic model predictive control (MPC) framework is presented for an integrated wind turbine and flywheel energy storage system (FESS). The control objective is to smooth wind power output and mitigate tower fatigue load. The optimal control problem within the model predictive control framework has been formulated as a convex optimal control problem with linear dynamics and convex constraints that can be solved globally. The performance of the proposed control algorithm is compared to that of a baseline wind turbine controller. The effect of the proposed control actions on the fatigue loads acting on the tower and blades is investigated. The simulation results, with various wind scenarios, showed the ability of the proposed control algorithm to achieve the aforementioned objectives in terms of smoothing output power and mitigating tower fatigue load with negligible effect on the wind energy harvested.

关键词： Real-time economic dispatch   Stochastic economic model predictive control   imbalance energy   Renewable resource   Transmission line constraints  

摘要： This paper presents stochastic economic model predictive control (SEMPC) method for real-time economic dispatch of Balance Responsible Parties (BRPs) as load balance controller in power system structure. In this regard, SEMPC method operates on the energy time scale and optimizes the expected economic performance of the BRP. Calculated set-points are average power injection of controllable generators, as well as known disturbance of prediction wind generation. The novel SEMPC scheme is able to cope with the wind uncertainty occurring in the real-time operation of BRPs. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm can take into account the technical constraints of generators and transmission line constraints of the power network. Simulations on IEEE 9-bus and 57-bus test systems with proposed method shows improvements inability to track reference production, economic performance and imbalance energy with respect to nominal predictive controllers.

摘要： Background Schizophrenia is associated with a high economic burden. Economic models can help to inform resource allocation decisions to maximise benefits to patients. Objectives This systematic review aims to assess the availability, quality and consistency of conclusions of health economic models evaluating the cost effectiveness of interventions for schizophrenia. Methods An electronic search was performed on multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, NHS Economic Evaluation Database and Health Technology Assessment database) to identify economic models of interventions for schizophrenia published between 2005 and 2020. Two independent reviewers selected studies for inclusion. Study quality was assessed using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) checklist and the Cooper hierarchy. Model characteristics and conclusions were descriptively summarised. Results Seventy-three models met inclusion criteria. Seventy-eight percent of existing models assessed antipsychotics;however, due to inconsistent conclusions reported by different studies, no antipsychotic can be considered clearly cost effective compared with the others. A very limited number of models suggest that the following non-pharmacological interventions might be cost effective: psychosocial interventions, stratified tests, employment intervention and intensive intervention to improve liaison between primary and secondary care. The quality of included models is generally low due to use of a short time horizon, omission of adverse events of interventions, poor data quality and potential conflicts of interest. Conclusions This review highlights a lack of models for non-pharmacological interventions, and limitations of the existing models, including low quality and inconsistency in conclusions. Recommendations on future modelling approaches for schizophrenia are provided.

关键词： Cross-border integration   cultural industry   social development   promotion   integration   dynamic panel  

摘要： When using a traditional econometric model to study the promotion effect of the cultural industry on social development in cross-border context, only the mathematical formula is available for the quantitative analysis of social and economic problems, but disadvantages such as complex processing process, low efficiency, and low accuracy are still encountered. This article designs a research model to study the promoting effect of cultural industry on social development in the context of cross-border integration. Based on the economic measurement results of cultural tourism industry, the coupling principle is used to quantitatively analyze the coupling and coordination degree of the development of cultural tourism industry under cross-border integration. Using dynamic panel theory, this article studies the role of cultural tourism industry integration in social and economic development. The experimental results show that the model can effectively analyze the promoting effect of cultural industry on social development in the context of cross-border integration, in which the error rate is only 0.31 and the maximum growth rate is as high as 98%, indicating small error and high efficiency of the proposed model.

关键词： 餐饮供应链   品牌化   经济模型   供应链能力   餐饮连锁   餐饮行业   餐饮业  

摘要： 未来,谁能找到最适合扩张又被消费者认可的品类,谁能最精准地解决选址问题,谁能强有力地掌握住供应链掌握住上游,就有可能在这万亿级市场新一轮的竞争中抢得一席之地,成为下一个新经济餐饮巨头。新冠疫情,给餐饮行业带来了极其深远影响。中国餐饮商家数量接近一千万家,呈现头部-腰部-尾部的金字塔型结构。头部大型连锁餐饮品牌,腰部中小型连锁餐饮品牌,以及尾部大量卫生条件相对不严格的夫妻店路边摊。

关键词： 宏观经济模型   积极财政政策   稳健货币政策  

摘要： 通过利用宏观经济模型,分析我国产能过剩背景下国家的积极财政政策和稳健货币政策的组合政策效果,对比理论结果与实践效果的差异,为我国未来积极有效的干预宏观经济提供有益的借鉴。

关键词： economic model predictive control   input-to-state practical stability   networked control systems   transmission delays  

摘要： In this work, we consider economic model predictive control of nonlinear networked control systems subject to external disturbances and communication delays in both sensor-to-controller and controller-to-actuator channels. The problem is addressed in the framework of the min-max model predictive control. First, a delay compensation strategy is proposed to minimize the impact of communication delays on the control performance. In the compensation strategy, once the receiver at the controller node receives a new state measurement, the controller generates a control sequence and sends the sequence to the actuator to compensate for delayed control inputs. Subsequently, the presence of disturbance is explicitly considered for robustness and the semi-feedback min-max optimization algorithm is used to design the control law based on the estimate of the current state reconstructed by the estimator. Furthermore, the input-to-state practical stability of the proposed approach is established by constructing a modified Lyapunov function. Simulation results of a numerical example and a chemical process example demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of our approach.