关键词： ECONOMIC stabilization   MATHEMATICAL models   ECONOMIC models   ECONOMICS -- Statistical methods   ECONOMETRICS   MATHEMATICS   EIGENVALUES   EQUILIBRIUM  

摘要： In order to simplify stability analysis of an economic model one can assume that one of the model variables moves infinitely fast towards equilibrium, given the values of the other slower variables. We present conditions such that stability of the simplified model implies, or is implied by, stability of the original model. The conditions make use of the concept of a negative dominant diagonal. As an example, we analyse the (local) stability of a Walrasian general equilibrium model.

关键词： 预测可靠性   预测的可靠性   经济计量学方法   经济计量模型   方程式   宏观经济模型   内成变量   预测过程   随机方程   变量值  

关键词： 随机消费   经济模型   消费系数分布   投入产出矩阵   消费矩阵  

摘要： 本文探讨了非生产性消费对生产发展的影响，在假设为独立随机向量族的条件下，给出了最大产出Ｙ（ｎ）（ω）分布由的分布决定的结论。

关键词： 不确定性因素   决策过程   盈利概率   研究成果   决策人员   概率分布规律   经济模型   活动理论   定性条件   管理决策  

关键词： LAND use   ECONOMETRIC models  

摘要： The recent ‘MacSharry reforms’ to the Common Agricultural Policy alter significantly the economic incentives to farmers. Analysis using the economic component of NELUP suggests that the reforms are likely to have some impact on agriculture in the catchment of the River Tyne, but that some of the apparent land use changes would have occurred anyway under existing policy. © 1995, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.

关键词： 动态   经济模型   投入产出系统   稳定增长  

摘要： 本文根据矩阵特征值估计理论,给出动态投入产出(I/O)模型稳定增长的判据.它们由模型系数矩阵元素的简单计算可得,便于对系数矩阵按稳定增长的需要进行调整.

关键词： 通货膨胀率   高失业率   宏观经济模型   经济代理人   曲线模型   结构模型   地方调查   美元贬值   进口货物   膨胀速度  

摘要： 在现代宏观经济模型中，预期的通货膨胀表示适应过去通货膨胀速度的过程。1961年，Muth提出一个二者择一的方程式；经济代理人了解实际的经济结构模型，并利用完整的信息形成“合理的”期望。本文试图在对1978－1985年美国消费者进行地方调查的基础上证明这一假设。回答人应回答下述问题：“您认为在最近12个月内价格是上涨，还是下跌，还是保持不变？”谁回答价格将上涨／或下跌，还需进一步回答补充问题：“您认为价格上涨／下跌的百分比是多少？”此外，模型中还应用了通货膨胀率、失业率、过去汇率的信息。这种模型主要注意通货膨胀和失业之间的联系。失业使需求产生波动，因而对经济产生压力。失业率高，需求就低。生产厂家之间的竞争使价格下降。没有失业时，对价格的压力最高。这样，失业率低时，通货膨胀加剧，而在高失业率期间，通货膨胀率减小。至于说到汇率，美元贬值使通货膨胀率更高。当美元行市跌落时，进口货物的美元价格上升，也使这些商品的生产代理人提高价格。于是通货膨胀率上升。如果美元升值，情况则相反。调查数据和根据模型对计算结果进行分析表明，调查研究可以得出较好的预测。如果利用非利普斯曲线模型进行计算，那么该模型绘出的结果最好。例如。

关键词： 货币政策   经济发展   中国   经济模型  

摘要： 随着改革开放的深入和国民经济的发展,货币政策的宏观调控作用变得越来越重要。有目共睹的事实是,流通中的货币（M0）与GDP之比已由1980年的7％上升到1993年的40％左右;利率对经济运行的作用机制发生了较明显的变化;社会投资资金来源的多元化已形成了不完备的资本市场。这些事实使得货币政策已经成为中央政府进行宏观经济调控的不可缺少的重要手段。因此,深入研究货币政策对中国经济的作用机制,从而更有效地利用货币政策对宏观经济进行调控将成为中国建立和完善社会主义市场经济体系的一个重要方面。本文将通过一个中国宏观经济模型的模拟,从理论分析和实证分析两个方面来讨论货币政策对中国经济的影响。

关键词： WAITING LISTS   PRIVATE SECTOR   NHS  

摘要： This paper develops an economic model of the market for treatment of waiting list conditions, in which complainants choose between private treatment, NHS treatment and no hospital treatment. This choice depends on a number of clinical and non-clinical factors, which enter the demand functions for private and NHS treatment. Among the key influences are the price of private treatment and the expected duration of wait for NHS treatment, both of which are endogenous variables in the model. Given a pair of private sector and NHS supply functions, expressions are obtained for the price and expected wait at which demand and supply are simultaneously equated in both the private sector and the NHS. The paper concludes by exploring the responsiveness of the equilibrium to various demand side and supply side shocks.

关键词： compensated   Paris (Melanthiaceae)   Nuclear disasters   Economic Models   Nuclear Accidents   revision procedure   economic analysis   liability   Vienna Austria   revision   compensation for damage   Accidents   Paris France   Convention  

摘要： In this paper the economic analysis of accident law is used to examine the liability for nuclear accidents. It is argued that the classic system of individual liability of a nuclear power plant operator with a financial cap on compensation and individual insurance by national pools is not effective. The current system leads to a too low compensation for victims and lacks an adequate internalization of the nuclear risk. Hence, it is argued that the economic analysis of law can provide useful insights for the revision of the Paris and Vienna Conventions on the liability for nuclear accidents. It is also argued that higher amounts of compensation can be generated only if the idea is accepted that all plants share the costs of an accident wherever it occurs. This could be realized through a mutual pooling system. Such a system could also be fitted into the revision of the Paris and Vienna Conventions. © 1995 Kluwer Academic Publishers.