关键词： CAUSAL ORDERING   QUALITATIVE MODELING   QUALITATIVE REASONING   ECONOMICS   EXPLANATION   CAUSALITY  

摘要： In this paper, a framework is introduced in which economic models can be represented in a graphical way using causal ordering. This framework unifies the existing approaches of causal ordering in the literature. On the basis of locally imposed directions of causality (derived from the underlying economic theory) global causal dependencies can be derived for the whole model. The result is a graphical representation of the causal dependencies of the model, called a signed causal-ordering graph. On the basis of a small example taken from the area of public finance, it is pointed out what kind of conclusions can be drawn from the signed causal-ordering graph. The conclusions of this kind of qualitative analysis can be viewed as a hypothesis which requires subsequent empirical analysis in order to see if the hypothesis can be rejected.

摘要： Recently, the simulated annealing has been applied to several combinatorial optimization problems. In this paper, the simulated annealing method for continuous functions is reviewed, and it is applied to an economic model having multiple optimal solutions, in which all optimal solutions cannot be simultaneously obtained by Scarf's algorithm. © 1995 Nicholas Copernicus University Press.

关键词： 渠道   维修   渗流控制   强度   经济模型  

摘要： 本文用静水测验法分析了各种灌溉渠道及已运行多年的防渗渠道维修前后的观测结果，根据经济学原理，提出了判断灌溉渠道防渗、维修及重建的数理经济模型，供渠道防渗和维修或改建设计时参考使用．

关键词： 生产函数   技术进步   经济结构   经济模型  

摘要： 通过对 Cobb-Douglas 生产函数的剖析,阐明了 C-D 模型的一些性质及技术进步在生产过程中的重要作用,分析了企业各部门间的经济结构变化对产出的影响。

关键词： 情报服务   有偿服务   微观   经济模型  

摘要： 情报有偿服务是情报服务产业化进程中不可逾越的过渡阶段,它是政府资助和服务创收并存的混和经济模式。作者参照国外的图书馆服务经济模型。以联机检索服务部门为例,建立了情报有偿服务的微观经济模型,用模型模拟了情报有偿服务的运行状态,剖析了它的内在机制,探讨了它的发展方向。模型的突出特点是:情报服务部门的投入用于建立、维持和提高服务能力,这种能力定为情报服务部门的产出;在与用户的交易中,服务能力转换成了现实的服务,交易量是可以测量的、能控制的。

摘要： Agricultural policy measures are directed increasingly towards encouraging production systems that are deemed to be favourable for ecologically valued plant communities and species. This paper presents an approach to linking an ecological model of vegetation with a regional economic model of agricultural production to provide a means of estimating the costs of achieving a given area of a desired vegetation type. This is demonstrated by an empirical study of heather and hay meadow conservation in River Tyne catchment in northern England. The results show that policy measures need to take account both of spatial linkages within agriculture and temporal links between ecological processes and agricultural productivity.

关键词： structural regional modeling   Bayesian forecasting   REMI  

摘要： This paper examines the performance of the model produced by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), which utilizes pooled econometric coefficients, in forecasting and simulating the Las Vegas, Nevada economy. Forecasts and simulations are performed using the REMI model and alternative sets of parameter estimates: REMI pooled estimates;estimates based on local data;and two sets of estimates that are calculated using Bayesian shrinkage techniques. The results reveal that the economic multipliers produced by the REMI model are sensitive to the set of estimates used to parameterize the model. Regarding forecasting performance, the REMI coefficients produce the most accurate long-run forecasts while one of the Bayesian shrinkage estimators produces the most accurate short-run forecasts.

摘要： The new political economy includes formal models in which the notion of general equilibrium extends to political as well as economic processes. Policies are determined endogenously. This paper first reviews models in which trade taxes and subsidies are tied to the optimal tariff of the median voter, to the interests of industry-specific lobbies and an incumbent politician, or to the attempts of competing parties to maximize the probability of their election. The paper then briefly considers models focusing on fiscal policy, macroeconomic stabilization, and the sequencing of economic reform. At the end of the paper, several critical questions are raised. © 1995 Springer.

关键词： 非均衡   计量经济模型   研究   经济数学  

摘要： 在经济学中,非均衡是相对于瓦尔拉斯均衡而言的。瓦尔拉斯均衡是在假定存在着完善的市场和灵敏的价格体系条件下所达到的均衡,非均衡则是在不存在完善市场和灵敏价格体系条件下所达到的均衡。简言之,均衡是暂时的和相对的,而非均衡则是长期的和绝对的。因此非均衡理论是符合实际的,其中非均衡模型能够客观地描述经济系统运行的非均衡现实和特点。自70年代以来,非均衡计量经济模型成为国际经济学界研究与应用的热点,成果丰富,发展迅速。我国先后有计划经济、计划与市场相结合。

关键词： 计量经济模型   银行经营管理   储蓄存款   计量经济方法   商业银行   管理方法   人均国民收入   金融体制改革   计量经济学   理论运用  

摘要： 一、计量经济模型运用于银行经营管理中的意义计量经济学是以一定的经济理论为依据,以数学和统计方法为手段,对各种经济关系进行数量分析的一门社会科学。其在不同的社会经济制度国家里,发挥着极其重要的作用。为适应社会主义市场经济发展的需要,改革金融体制应采用计量经济科学的管理方法,将计量经济理论运用于金融管理中,必将有着重要的现实意义: