关键词： Catastrophic risk   climate change   lagged effects   resource management  

摘要： We model endogenous catastrophic risk in a new way. We call it "inertia risk", which accounts for delays between physical variables and the hazard rate - a characteristic often observed in reality. The added realism significantly affects optimal policies relative to the standard model of catastrophic risk. The probability of a catastrophe occurring at some point in time can span the entire interval [0,1], and is not 0 or 1 as is typical in standard models. Inertia risk can also generate path dependences. We illustrate the implications for policy in a simple model of climate change.

关键词： Service-oriented architecture   Computer architecture   Routing   Biological system modeling   Economics   Protocols   Future Internet architecture   network economics   deployment of network protocols   game theory  

摘要： Emerging new applications demand the current Internet to provide new functionalities. Although many future Internet architectures and protocols have been proposed to fulfill such needs, ISPs have been reluctant to deploy many of these architectures. We believe technical issues are not the main reasons as many of these new proposals are technically sound. In this paper, we take an economic perspective and seek to answer: Why do most new Internet architectures fail to be deployed? How can the deployability of a new architecture be enhanced? We develop a game-theoretic model to characterize the outcome of an architecture's deployment through the equilibrium of ISPs' decisions. This model enables us to: (1) analyze several key factors of the deployability of a new architecture such as the number of critical ISPs and the change of routing path;(2) explain the deploying outcomes of some previously proposed architectures/protocols such as IPv6, DiffServ, CDN, etc., and shed light on the "Internet flattening phenomenon";(3) predict the deployability of a new architecture such as NDN, and compare its deployability with competing architectures. Our study suggests that the difficulty to deploy a new Internet architecture comes from the "coordination" of distributed ISPs. Finally, we design a mechanism to enhance the deployability of new architectures.

关键词： Meat paradox   Self-deception   Price elasticity   Moral wiggle room  

摘要： Many individuals have empathetic feelings towards animals but frequently consume meat. We investigate this "meat paradox" using insights from the literature on motivated reason ing in moral dilemmata. We develop a model where individuals form self-serving beliefs about the suffering of animals caused by meat consumption in order to alleviate the guilt associated with their dietary choices. The model predicts that the price of meat has a causal effect on individuals' beliefs: high prices foster realism by lowering the returns to self-deception, which magnifies the price elasticity of meat consumption. The model also predicts a positive relationship between individuals' taste for meat and their propensity to engage in self-deception, a causal effect of aggregate consumption on individual beliefs, and the coexistence of equilibria of "collective realism" and "collective denial". (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 生产性服务多样化   地理毗邻   流通业发展   空间计量经济模型   熵值法  

摘要： 本文通过熵值法测算了我国生产性服务多样化水平指数,并基于空间计量经济模型实证检验了生产性服务业多样化、地理毗邻与流通业规模增长之间的关系。研究表明:我国面上的生产性服务多样化水平总体不断提升;各地流通业规模和生产性服务多样化水平都因地理毗邻而存在正向集聚性;生产性服务多样化是促进流通业规模增长的一个重要因素,同时流通业发展也因地理毗邻而表现出空间依赖性,即毗邻地区流通业的增长对本地流通业带来空间传递效应。

关键词： 次贷危机   中国政策   宏观经济模型  

摘要： 由于美国次级贷危机引起的全球金融危机虽然已过去多时,但从理论和实践上我们仍然有必要对我国应对国际金融危机的政策及其效果进行分析和评价,为未来的可能的经济金融危机做好未雨绸缪。该文主要利用宏观经济模型对我国当时采取的政策的理论和实践上的效果差异进行对比分析,并给出建议。

关键词： 农业R&D投入   空间溢出   农业经济增长   空间计量经济模型  

摘要： 本文以1999—2015年为研究时段,运用空间计量经济模型实证研究了中国农业R&D投入的经济效应(包括直接效应、溢出效应与总效应),并通过调整空间权重设定分析其在不同区域内部及区域之间的差异。结果表明:(1)中国农业R&D投入和农业GDP在空间上均存在显著的集聚特征;(2)农业R&D投入对农业经济增长的直接效应、溢出效应和总效应均显著为正,且溢出效应大于直接效应;(3)中部地区农业R&D投入的总效应最大,其次是东部,东北地区则不显著;东北地区农业R&D投入的直接效应与溢出效应则为四大区域之首;(4)农业R&D投入在四大区域间均产生了正向溢出效应,其中,中-西部之间溢出效应最大,东-东北紧随其后,而东-西部和中-东北间溢出效应则并不显著。因此,在制定区域农业科技创新发展战略时应具有全局观念,不仅要结合各区域自身的发展特点,更应充分考虑周边地区发展的间接影响,以全面提升我国农业科技创新效率水平。

关键词： GDP数据质量   计量经济模型   统计数据诊断   随机数值模拟  

摘要： 针对中国GDP数据质量评估研究中广泛采用的计量经济模型方法,本文从其技术原理的局限性以及GDP核算误差发生机制的影响效应两个方面,系统考察了该方法在具体评估实践中的适用性。研究表明,基于计量经济模型的两类评估方法(参数可靠性分析与异常数值识别),在实际操作中易于陷入“数据质量不佳”或者“模型结构设定不当”的对立解读困境;因忽视了GDP核算误差的发生机制,根据模型估计结果的异常特征来反推GDP数据序列中误差结构(效应),其可行性有所不足。计量模型方法之于GDP数据质量评估研究的适用性的提升,还有待于对GDP核算误差机制的显性识别;本文在此方面提供了一个相对完备的概念性基准模型,有助于相关研究的进一步深化拓展。

关键词： 绿色建筑   可持续发展   经济分析  

摘要： 文章对传统材料与节能材料进行了对比,阐述了量化节能材料经济效益的可行性,列举了建筑节能材料经济模型,探究了建筑节能材料的未来发展趋势。

关键词： Robust economic model predictive control   Output feedback and observers   Optimal controller synthesis for systems with uncertainties   Optimization-based controller synthesis   Robust estimation  

摘要： This paper proposes a novel economic Model Predictive Control algorithm aiming at achieving optimal steady-state performance despite the presence of plant-model mismatch or unmeasured nonzero mean disturbances. According to the offset-free formulation, the system's state is augmented with disturbances and transformed into a new coordinate framework. Based on the new variables, the proposed controller integrates a moving horizon estimator to determine a solution of the nominal system surrounded by a set of potential states compatible with past input and output measurements. The worst cost within a single homothetic tube around the nominal solution is chosen as the economic objective function which is minimized to provide a tightened upper bound for the accumulated real cost within the prediction horizon window. Thanks to the combined use of the nominal system and homothetic tube, the designed optimization problem is recursively feasible and less conservative economic performance bounds are achieved. The proposed controller is demonstrated on a two-tanks system. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.