摘要： I study a model where hierarchies of beliefs (the beliefs about the beliefs of other agents, etc.) are important. I provide conditions under which optimal actions of agents will converge to the Nash equilibrium of the model characterized by the tree, previously unknown ''fundamentals.'' The conditions are (i) a contraction property on the best-response mappings and (ii) a mutual absolute continuity condition on beliefs. Violation of(i) may result in an ''anything is possible'' result: any stochastic process of actions is consistent with maximizing behavior and Bayesian updating. Violation of(ii) may result in cyclical behavior of actions on each sample path. (C) 1997 Academic Press.

关键词： 开采成本   油田开发   经济模型   目标函数   规划  

摘要： 从区块开采成本最低的角度出发，分析了油田开采的成本形式，建立了产量为约束条件的油田开发经济模型，根据具体井位确定方式以及井数与产量的关系，修正了最低成本规划模型；

摘要： The parameter values and assumptions of any economic model are subject to change and error. Sensitivity analysis (SA), broadly defined, is the investigation of these potential changes and errors and their impacts on conclusions to be drawn from the model. There is a very large literature on procedures and techniques for SA, but it includes almost nothing from economists. This paper is a selective review and overview of theoretical and methodological issues in SA. There are many possible uses of SA, described here within the categories of decision support, communication, increased understanding or quantification of the system, and model development. The paper focuses somewhat on decision support. It is argued that even the simplest approaches to SA can be theoretically respectable in decision support if they are applied and interpreted in a way consistent with Bayesian decision theory. This is not to say that SA results should be formally subjected to a Bayesian decision analysis, but that an understanding of Bayesian probability revision will help the modeller plan and interpret an SA. Many different approaches to SA are described, varying in the experimental design used and in the way results are processed. Possible overall strategies for conducting SA are suggested. It is proposed that when using SA for decision support, it can be very helpful to attempt to identify which of the following forms of recommendation is most appropriate: (a) do X, (b) do either X or Y depending on the circumstances, (c) do either X or Y, whichever you like, (d) if in doubt, do X. A system for reporting and discussing SA results is recommended. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

关键词： 计量经济学   商业周期   宏观经济模型   结构参数   周期分析   经济学方法   其他缺点   方法转变   基本缺陷   必要性  

关键词： 自适应辨识   经济模型   参考模型   计量经济学  

摘要： 运用ＰＯＰＯＶ超稳定性理论，提出了与最小二乘类辨识思路不同的参考模型自适应参数估计方法．用于更一般的经济动态信息。

关键词： 粮食生产   中国   宏观经济模型  

摘要： 粮食问题是一个关系到国计民生的重要战略问题,特别是我们这样一个人口众多的发展中国家,能否解决粮食基本自给是影响到改革与发展能否顺利进行的大事。正如江泽民总书记1995年在中央农村工作会议上强调的:“我们这样一个拥有12亿人口的大国。

关键词： 数量经济学   模型方法论   经济模型  

摘要： 当代数量经济学的模型方法论王文博随着经济体制改革的深入和市场经济向纵深发展，我国经济学界和经济管理部门越来越多地运用定量分析技术和方法来解决经济及管理领域中的问题，而“建立模型”或进行“模型分析”更成为这种数量分析的核心方法。一、模型与数量经济学的发...

关键词： 管理科学   人工神经网络   旅行商问题   神经网络方法   管理科学研究   预测模型   宏观经济模型   企业管理   线性回归方法   线性规划  

摘要： 管理科学天地宽求学不畏路途难——王其文教授的管理科学研究在１９９０年完成博士论文后，王其文教授在赠送朋友的论文的扉页上曾写了一首七律诗，表达他不畏艰险，矢之不渝地在管理科学海洋中遨游的情怀。现抄录如下：管理科学天地宽，求学不畏路途难。决策妙用控制论，...

关键词： 加总理论   经济模型   微观经济模型   宏观经济模型  

摘要： 针对刻划微观经济单元运行规律的指标，定义了完备性的概念．当微观经济模型由一组完备的经济指标所满足的微分方程组给出时，提出了一个由微观经济模型到宏观经济模型的加总方法并给出了一个应用实例．

关键词： 中间业务   投入产出表   多部门经济   经济模型   选择方法   业务分析   计量经济   方法论   时间变化   测定误差