关键词： 计量经济   联合国   联接模型   世界经济   中国  

摘要： 联合国世界计量经济联接模型系统中的中国宏观计量经济模型（１９９６版）简介祝宝良（国家信息中心经济预测部１０００４５）１模型设计的主导思想建立中国的计量经济模型必须考虑中国经济自身的特点。众所周知，１９７９年以前，中国经济体制是高度集中的计划经济体制...

关键词： 煤矿企业   原煤成本   成本计量   经济模型   成本预测  

关键词： 国外石化公司   市场调研   国外公司   第二手资料   经济模型   国民经济增长率   石化产品   工艺设备   市场需求   产品定位  

摘要： 国外石化公司市场调研点滴刘群国有企业要过好市场关，提高市场竞争力，必须提高对市场规律的认识，增强对市场的应变能力，以掌握市场的主动权，在这方面国外石化公司有许多做法值得我们学习和借鉴。他们常常把市场调研作为生产经营工作的先行，特别是在每一项投资的可行...

关键词： 计量经济模型   几何   微分几何  

摘要： 研究了一类计量经济模型.首先,利用Severini和Wong(1992)提出的广义子集参数似然建立了类似于Wei(1991)的几何结构.然后.研究了参数估计同统计曲率有关的一些渐近性质,本文的结果进一步推广和发展了Wei(1991)等的工作.

关键词： 宏观经济理论   马克思   生产论   再生产理论   中国宏观经济   经济数学模型   宏观经济模型   理论模型   定性和定量分析   国家行政学院  

摘要： 中国宏观经济模型是以马克思再生产理论为基础的经济数学模型.这个模型将马克思再生产理论与价值规律有机地结合起来,较好地描述了市场经济条件下经济的动态运行过程.考虑了货币、价格动态等因素,使模型更趋现实,所以运用它能对中国宏观经济进行定性和定量分析.

关键词： 世界经济   联合国   计量经济   联接模型   中国  

摘要： 联合国世界计量经济联接模型系统中国宏观计量经济模型的模拟分析结果祝宝良（国家信息中心经济预测部１０００４５）１模型简介１９７９年实行改革开放以来，我国的经济体制逐步由计划经济向社会主义的市场经济转变。但在１９８８年以前，由于我国部分商品的价格处于管...

关键词： 博士生导师   国家自然科学基金   宏观经济模型   数量经济学   金融计量经济学   中国国际收支   宏观经济计量模型   研究方向   日本京都大学   通货膨胀  

摘要： This paper addresses relationships between structural parameters of a complex three-dimensional system and agricultural wealth subject to a minimum safe standard for the ecosphere. The subsystems are the ecosphere, agriculture, and industry. Their interaction is modeled by a dynamical system based on the predator prey paradigm. It is demonstrated that the system may surpass certain local and global bifurcations. The later ones lead to appearance and disappearance of strange attractors. The presence of strange attractors connotes poor predictability. Sustaining agricultural systems requires the ability to predict departures from preferred reference states and in the limit to predict approaching extinction. A suitable model needs to be heuristic. Such a model should provide several features for managers and policy makers. It should incorporate learning about the minimum sustainable ecospheric threshold, preferred reference states, and the dynamics of departures from those reference states. Predictions of the model should reveal how to maneuver parameters in order to achieve 'favorable' system dynamics. That is why most of our attention is placed on exploring the range of parameters in which strange attractors occur or do not occur. The policy problem for sustainable agriculture is consequently defined as preventing strange attractors from appearing. Simulations show that strange attractors may be avoided and replaced by stable periodic trajectories or stable nodes by changing the coefficient of ecospheric recovery, terms of trade, or the productivity of the ecosphere in agricultural uses. Agricultural terms of trade and ecospheric recovery coefficients are partially substitutable in sustaining agriculture and improving predictability. The results suggest that sustainability is sensitive to learning processes which address tradeoffs among the parameters, minimum thresholds of persistence for the ecosphere and mutualism in economic predation. (C) Elsevier Science Inc.,

关键词： simulation model   health care costs  

摘要： This paper describes the construction of a model of the Dutch health care sector. It discusses the behaviour of patients, general practitioners, medical specialists and hospital managers. It also analyses the various ways the actors interact, such as general practitioners supplying the services demanded by patients, specialists dispatching referrals made by general practitioners or hospital managers boosting output to match an increasing amount of specialist services. Numerical simulations illustrate the various mechanisms in the model. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

摘要： Four different types of equilibrium are possible within a two-player model of society where only armed self-enforcement of property rights is possible. The main underlying parameters are the total resource endowment and the initial distribution of this endowment between the players. The parameter space is partitioned into regions in which the respective types of equilibrium occur. The equilibrium types involve positive arms expenditure by, respectively, neither player, the richer player, and both players;the latter case involves a sub-type in which the poorer player's entire endowment is expended on arms.