关键词： 风险管理   经济模型   项目   评价  

摘要： 本文通过对风险概念的进一步分析，说明了风险权衡在项目风险分析中的重要作用。并且阐述了多阶段项目风险权衡的两个基本目的，即评估各阶段风险权衡策略的综合效果，以及根据预期风险控制要求，产生各阶段的风险权衡策略。同时，通过给出一些基本假设，引出了一个多阶段项目的风险权衡模型，并且给出了几种简单实用的求解方法：搜索法和启发式法等。最后，就本文所讨论的方法进行了简单的分析。

关键词： multi-country models   model comparisons   simulation   rational expectations  

摘要： This article presents a first account of comparative research on multi-country models conducted by an independent third party with full hands-on access to the models. The models are MSG2, MULTIMOD and NIGEM. Their structural characteristics are first compared and contrasted;their theoretical foundations are seen to have some broad similarities. Overall model properties are then elucidated by three simulation experiments conducted in a standardized policy framework. The source and nature of observed cross-model and cross-country differences in the results are described, a fundamental source being the model-builders' different approaches to quantification. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

关键词： 进步率   经济模型   经济数学模型   投入量   江西财经大学   劳动投入   产出量   资本投入  

摘要： 新古典经济模型与江西科技进步率的测定□江西财经大学统计学系林洪文德才自改革开放以来，江西经济得到了长足的发展，增长速度一直高于全国平均水平，１９７８－１９９６年ＧＤＰ年均增长１０．７％，比全国平均水平高出１．２个百分点，特别是自１９９０年以来，江西省...

关键词： 世界宏观经济   经济模型   区域经济模型   模拟特征  

关键词： 中国宏观经济   汽车   经济发展趋势   经济趋势   宏观经济调控   宏观经济管理   个人收入差距   住房需求   政府转移支付   宏观经济模型   经济增长点   中央政府   国有企业改革  

摘要： １９９８年中国宏观经济展望刘晓越１９９８年来临，社会各界对今年我国宏观经济发展趋势都非常关注。为此，我们根据《中国宏观经济模型》，对１９９８年的主要宏观经济指标进行了分析预测，认为在积极加快改革，加强调控的前提下，１９９８年整体经济仍将保持快速稳定增...

关键词： Climate models  

摘要： Climate policy analysis has come to rely heavily on large-scale numerical simulation models of increasing complexity, posing a challenge to policy-makers and other non-specialists who must interpret and apply the models. This paper provides a "user's guide" to economic models used in climate analysis. We review basic features, underlying design issues, and basic research questions bearing on the models' foundations. We also provide an overview of five such global or world models currently in use.

关键词： 金融创新   金融风险   金融监管  

关键词： 世界宏观经济   宏观经济模型   财政政策   利率变化   美元贬值  

关键词： 世界宏观经济   宏观经济模型   工业化国家  

关键词： Cost-Benefit Analysis   Decision Trees   Gastrointestinal Agents/economics   Gastrointestinal Agents/therapeutic use   Gastrointestinal Diseases/economics   Gastrointestinal Diseases/therapy   Great Britain   Great Britain   Humans   Models, Economic   Primary Health Care/economics  

摘要： Health economic models for identifying therapeutic options that maximise health benefits from limited healthcare resources are being developed in a number of therapeutic areas. The development of such a model for upper gastrointestinal (UGI) symptoms to support decision-making by primary care clinicians is of particular importance, given the prevalence of this symptomatology. This economic model was based upon the clinical guidelines aimed at improving the management of UGI disorders at the primary care level that were developed by the International Gastro Primary Care Group. This paper discusses the derivation, methodology and results of the economic model developed to assess the resource implications arising from these clinical guidelines. In order to construct the economic model, it was necessary to identify the following: every therapeutic pathway followed by patients resource use along each pathway the probabilities of following alternative pathways. One crucial factor underlying the interpretation of results obtained from any economic model is the time period covered by the model. The model presented here analysed the initial 12-month treatment period of 'new' patients presenting with UGI symptoms. In order to test the implications of a longer term perspective, the model is currently being developed to analyse resource use over a 24-month period. The model demonstrates that utilising the predominant symptom approach to the diagnosis and treatment of patients with UGI disorders appears to provide significant benefits in terms of patient management and effective resource use. This factor, together with the more intensive use of Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy, provides the potential to reduce the cost of drugs for the treatment of UGI disorders by approximately 15% in the UK. A major strength of the model is its adaptability to a wide range of clinical and cost scenarios. Such adaptability enables the model to effectively reflect the potential resource i