关键词： Quality control charts & diagrams   Economic models   Charts, diagrams, etc.   Process control   Quality control   Automatic control  

摘要： As suggested by Box and Kramer [1] and others, it is possible to reduce both the special cause and common cause variations by applying Statistical Process Control (SPC) methods to monitor the output of an Automatic Process Control (APC) controlled process. In this paper, we develop an economic model for SPC monitoring of APC controlled processes. We also develop an economic loss-based criterion, the Average Quality Cost (AQC), to evaluate the performance of SPC charting methods. The AQC and the traditional average run length of three common SPC charts are investigated and compared.

关键词： 期望孩子数   贝克尔生育率模型   收入水平   理想的子女文化程度  

摘要： 本文通过对四川省宣汉县这一个案的研究 ,分析了影响期望孩子数的因素 ,探讨了贝克尔生育率模型的适用性

关键词： 市场预测   时间序列   经济模型   动态规划   多目标决策   媒炭市场  

摘要： 该文根据媒矿多种指标的历史数据,建立起了多变量时间序列方差分量分析预测模型 ,从数量上把握各因素对媒炭销量的影响程度,通过各种因素的预测来完成对销量的预测,作为矿井产量计划的依据.该文还应用了动态规划等数学原理,建立起了不同媒层的各种产量计划下的配采接续模型,通过优化计算各个配采方案的吨媒生产成本,磷选经济上较省的方案,最后用多目标决策方法,提出了合理的配采方案.

关键词： 消费信贷   拉动经济增长   宏观经济模型   凯恩斯模型   储蓄曲线   现实分析   商业银行   个人消费信贷   国民生产总值GNP   社会总需求  

摘要： (一)当前中国的政策选择:鼓励消费信贷,刺激国内需求,拉动经济增长以危机国家货币贬值为主要特征的亚洲金融危机已持续两年之久,尽管危机程度有所降低,但这次危机对中国经济的影响却日渐显现:中国出口产品的竞争力下降,出口受到了一定冲击,出口对中国经济增长的贡献份额越来越小。据中国人民银行初步统计,截止99年8月止,我国城乡居民储蓄存款余额接近6万亿,90年代中期以来,储蓄率居高不下,年均超过40%,储蓄倾向仅次于新加坡,高居世界第二位。储蓄是消费的镜像,高储蓄的背后即是低消费。这就是当前中国经济面临的现实:高储蓄产生了巨大的供给能力,而出口需求与国内需求相对萎缩,形成供给相对过剩,阻碍了国民经济持续

关键词： 金融市场   通货紧缩   宏观经济模型   加速器   西方经济学   宏观经济学   金融产品   凯恩斯理论   信贷市场   经济理论  

摘要： 自50年代以来,金融市场的研究开始成为经济学理论研究中最为活跃的领域之一。从马科维茨等人的资本资产定价模型(CAPM)的产生、到70年代罗斯(Ross)套利定价模型(APT)和布莱克—斯科尔斯(Black—Scholes)定价公式的出现,金融研究取得了一系列新进展。但尽管如此,这一研究只是局限于金融市场本身,而且其研究方法也是微观的,没有涉及到任何宏观总量的东西。就在金融理论取得重大进展的同时,货币主义和理性预期学派先后向凯恩斯主义发难,使居于统治地位的凯恩斯宏观经济学摇摇欲坠。我们知道,在传统的凯恩斯理论里是没有金融市场的位置的。金融市场研究的进展和正统的宏观经济学所遇到的挑战似乎预示着二者之间会发生某种关系,而后来事实也的确在朝着这个方向发展。从80年代中后期开始,金融市场开始一步一步地"进入"到主流经济学中,并且成为当前宏观经济学研究的一个热点。下面我们对这一研究的发展过程进行一下简单的综述和评论,并在"结束语"中尝试着用从这一理论中获得的启示对我国当前的通货紧缩问题作出一些解析。

关键词： costs and cost analysis   stroke   stroke outcome  

摘要： Background and Purpose - Stroke is a debilitating disease with long-term with long-term social and economic consequences. As new therapies for acute ischemic stroke are forthcoming, there is an increasing need to understand their long-term economic implications. To address this need, a stroke economic model was created. Methods - The model consists of 3 modules. A short-term module incorporates short-term clinical trial data. A long-term module composed of several Markov submodels predicts patient transitions among various locations over time. The modules are connected via a bridge component that groups the survivors at the end of the short-term module according to their functional status and location. Examples of analyses that can be conducted with this model are provided with the use of data from 2 international trials. For illustration, UK unit costs were estimated. Results-With the trial data in the short-term module, the short-term management cost is estimated to be pound 8326 (US $13 649 [USD]). Hospital stay was the major cost driver. By the end of the trials, there was pronounced difference in the distribution of patient locations between functional groups. It is predicted in the long-term module that the subsequent cost amounts to pound 75 985 (124 564 USD) for a major and pound 27 995 (45 893 USD) for a minor stroke. Conclusions-Linking functional recovery at the end of short-term treatment with patients' treatment and residential locations allows this model to estimate the long-term economic impact of stroke interventions. Using patient location instead of the more common natural history as the model foundation allows quantification of the long-term impact to become data driven and hence increases confidence in the results.

关键词： 印刷电路板   故障检测   经济模型   测试策略  

摘要： 给出了检测环节前后电路板板级故障谱及成品率的计算方法,使检测环节的选择和检测效果的考查有了科学的依据;将不同检测方法按检测流程分类,建立了各自的费用模型.根据新的电路板检测经济模型及测试策略优化算法,可制定出最佳的检测方案,使总检测费用最小.最后。

ISBN: (纸本)730702750X

关键词： CRIME   CRIMINAL statistics  

摘要： Using unique and unpublished panel data from selected US cities, the paper investigates the consequences of ignoring unobserved heterogeneity in the unit of observation when estimating the economic model of crime. Results confirm that neglecting to control for unobserved heterogeneity overstates the ability of sanctions to deter criminal activity. Further, this upward bias is found to vary significantly across crime types. Interestingly, heterogeneity is insignificant in the tightly reported crimes of murder and auto-theft while being significant in assault, robbery, burglary and larceny where individuals and police have greater discretion in reporting.

ISBN: (纸本)7111074580