关键词： 宏观经济模型   风险性   H∝控制   辽宁  

摘要： 采用近 2 0年来经济体制改革时期的数据 ,建立了辽宁省宏观经济模型 .这一时期的经济模型最大特点是环境的不确定性 ,即存在经济风险性 .针对这种情况 ,研究了如何在“最差情况”下制定控制策略的问题 ,即H∞ 控制问题 ,并且进行了系统仿真计算工作 .

关键词： 微观模拟模型   仿真   经济模型  

摘要： 经济系统作为由各种经济代理人相成的典型复杂系统,在研究方法的重心上需要从传 统的均衡静态模型转向适合复杂系统研究的新型工具.微观分析模拟模型是一种适合研究复杂经济系统的工具,自60年代出现以来,特别是八、九十年代在美国等国家获得了很大的发展,出现了诸如TRIM、2ASPEN等著名的模型.然而国内在这方面的研究还很薄弱.该文是对微观分析模拟模型的一次探索.文章首先在研究一些国外著名的模型的基础上,结合离散事件系统仿真技术与面向对象技术讨论了微观分析模拟模型建模的一般方法,提出了一种开发适合在微机上运行的模型的系统设计方法--\"代理人--事件表\"系统设计法.之后,运用文中提出的系统设计方法建立了一个简单市场经济的三部门宏观经济仿真模型.并且应用所建立的模型来模拟了亏损企业退出或保留在经济中对整个宏观经济以及经济中的其它企业的影响,对结果进行了分析并给出了一仿真结果的经济学解释,从而验证了文中提出的系统设计方法的可行性与正确性.最后讨论了目前的模型所存在的不足和需要进一步研究的问题.

关键词： HYSTERESIS (Economics)   SCOTLAND -- Economic conditions  

摘要： This paper explores the properties of an open economy model in which real exchange rate overshooting has a permanent impact on the rate of unemployment via a hysteresis mechanism. The magnitude of this effect depends on the slope of the short-run Phillips curve, the speed with which expectations adjust in the labour market, and on the speed with which capacity adjusts to changes in capacity utilisation. However, it does not depend on here open the economy is, although the dynamics of the adjustment process (including the extent of the initial jump in the exchange rate following a change in monetary policy) do depend on this factor.

关键词： macroeconomic model   recycling   waste management   environmental industry  

摘要： The objective of this research is to evaluate optimal solutions taking into consideration not only conventional economic activities, but also activities for environmental preservation such as waste management and environmental investment. In order to investigate these activities, we constructed and performed simulations with a multi-sectoral dynamic macroeconomic model, which includes waste generation from each sector as well as the waste reduction, recycling, and final disposal processes. Although recycling activities are more costly than other waste management processes such as incineration and direct final disposal, there are some economic benefits in terms of recovery of economic goods. Our simulations revealed that in cases where there will not be a severe shortage of space for final disposal in the future, the incinerator process can be expected to be adopted for the reduction of waste for final disposal. On the other hand, in cases where severe space constraints exist, the recycling process will become the method of choice because waste management costs will become rise exponentially and the economic recovery benefit of recycling activities will be recognized as being much more important. Simulations performed with a version of the model that separates industries supplying equipment for environmental control from other conventional manufacturing sectors demonstrated that environmental industries have a large potential for both environmental improvement and economic progress. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 宏观经济   股票市场   股份制经济模型   周期波动   ASMEC-S模型   利率   宏观调控  

摘要： 为了分析宏观经济与股票市场之间的相互影响，我们提供了一个基于主体的股份制经济模型－－ASMEC－S。人工经济由多个家庭、多个消费品企业、一个资本品企业、一个银行和一个政府组成。消费品企业是股份制企业，政府和众多家庭是它们的股东。家庭的消费剩余可以用于股票市场的投资，是否买卖某种股票取决于家庭的预期。消费品企业通过调整劳动力数目和资本数目控制生产规模，并应用分类器系统完善定价策略。政府可以通过调整劳动力数目和资本数目控制生产规模，并应用分类器系统完善定价策略。政府可以通过制定货币政策调控经济运行。实验结果表明：宏观经济和股票市场均呈现出周期波动；政府适当地调整利率能够使宏观经济和股票市场运行比较平稳。

关键词： 中国   宏观经济模型   经济发展   资源配置   机构改革  

摘要： 本文阐述了中国宏观经济模型的理论基础、基本类型及建立的过程 ,并对其应用效果进行了分析。作者还就中国社会主义市场经济体制的建立与宏观经济的发展问题 。

关键词： endogenous fluctuations   periodic cycles   Hopf bifurcation   sunspot equilibrium  

摘要： This paper constructs a simple intertemporal model of a small open economy inhabited by forward looking agents, in which endogenous fluctuations in the real exchange rate can arise in equilibrium, i.e. fluctuations that are not linked to movements in economic fundamentals. The key condition for the main results is the assumption that the Marshall-Lerner condition does not hold (i.e. that the country's exports and imports are inelastic to its real exchange rate). It is shown that, given that the Marshall-Lerner condition fails, there exist periodic equilibria and/or stationary sunspot equilibria in the neighborhood of the stationary state. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： no-take marine reserves   bioeconomic equilibrium   open access fishing   coral reefs  

摘要： We model the effect of a no-take reserve in a marine fishery management area, such as on a coral reef. Implicitly, eggs and larvae are mobile but adults are not;and there is open access fishing outside the reserve. A reserve is found to increase equilibrium catch if the prior ratio of stock to carrying capacity is less than a half, and the catch-maximising reserve proportion rises towards a half as this ratio falls towards zero. After initial adjustment, long-run stability is improved by a reserve. We estimate that coral reef reserves could increase world wide annual catches by about a billion dollars. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 地区经济发展   宏观经济模型   民族地区经济   宏观经济决策   决策支持系统   经济数据库   政策模拟   科学化   特点   辅助  

摘要： 本文设计并实现了一个用于辅助政府进行宏观经济决策的决策支持系统.建立了具有民族地区经济特点的宏观经济模型,建立了大型经济数据库,查询系统具有优异的特性,可对民族地区的经济发展进行预测,并可进行政策模拟.

关键词： 南京市   外国投资   经济模型   重合产业   投资环境  

摘要： 该文紧密围绕利用外国投资所涉及的一系列问题开分析.主要包括国际资本流动动机、条件、后果和发展中国家利用外资必要性的理论分析.在此基础上,对于南京市在利用外资工作中所关心的几个方面,主要是未来外资的数量;外资对经济发展促进、对劳动力的吸收、对外贸的促进;在国内吸引分布的因素和各种因素促进大小的分析;对流入外资的引导分析.对于上述的分析,都在数据能够收集到的前提下,尽可能的采用计量经济的分析方法,以期尽可能的给出一些较为精确的量化的结论.该文采用的一些分析方法如何时间序列的分析方法,模型的标准化法在国内均鲜见使用,在这里均收到良好的效果.