关键词： Externalities   Religious studies   Secular human capital  

摘要： Traditional theories have explained religious behavior in terms of primitive thought, neurotic impulses and social conditioning rather than rational self-interest. Recent evidence, however, suggests that religious involvement can be justified by standard economic theories of rationality;that religious and secular human capital are complementary inputs in generating income;that religious studies have a direct effect on utility;and that such studies induce positive externalities. On the basis of these empirical findings, we have extended the model on human capital investment by assuming that an individual may be engaged in both religious and secular studies. Our model shows that as a result of the direct positive effect of religious studies on utility, the individual engaged in them is motivated to devote more time to religious as well as secular studies. This result is compatible with the empirical findings. The case of the effect of wage changes in the course of studying is used to highlight an interesting result of the extended model, whose conclusions differ from that of the traditional model. In the latter, a wage increase leads to an unambiguous decrease in the individual's study time, whereas in our model, a wage increase may increase time spent on religious studies, as a normal good, as well as on secular studies. We also discuss the positive externalities of religious studies and show how Jewish law and that of other denominations correct for this market failure. © 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： 品牌   区域市场行为   适合度   经济模型  

摘要： 对品牌的区域市场行为进行了探讨 ,系统研究了品牌区域市场行为的几种类型及其表现特征 ,提出了品牌区域市场适合度的概念 ,分析了品牌区域市场适合度的影响因素 ,给出了品牌区域市场适合度曲线与品牌区域市场适合度计算的函数表达模型 .通过对品牌区域市场行为基本经济变量 :成本变量与产出变量的分析 ,建立了品牌区域市场行为经济模型 .利用模型对不同品牌区域市场行为模式进行分析 ,提出了不同品牌行为模式下的市场结构特征及行为策略趋向判定标准 .最后 ,对某食品品牌的区域市场行为进行了实证案例研究 ,计算了该品牌区域市场适合度与市场投入产出变量 。

关键词： 货币危机   汇率制度   债券   经济模型  

关键词： TIME delay systems   ECONOMIC models  

摘要： In this paper we investigate the relationship between the time delay for building investment goods and cycles under the conditions of general equilibrium. We introduce a delay parameter in the spirit of Kalecki into the simple of models of growth theory. They encompass a wide range of models of neoclassical economics with a production model which shows constant return to scale, and also mufti-sector models. Kalecki's delay parameter is introduces into the equation for the accumulation of capital, assuming that the growth of the amount of capital at time t is a function of the total output of capital at time t - T. We consider the simplest case, when the time of building investment goods is constant, but we also suggest a more realistic economic situation, when the building time is represented by a distribution function. We show that the limit cycle is indeed the optimal time path in a model of economic growth. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Transportation   Microeconomics   Labor costs   Commerce  

摘要： After Vickrey's view, Mohring constructed a microeconomic model to determine the optimal frequency of buses serving a corridor with fixed demand. The main result was that frequency should be proportional to the square root of demand. The role of users' costs was shown to be crucial. This approach has evolved over the past decades, improving our understanding of public transport operations. This paper describes and analyses the evolution of microeconomic models for the analysis of public transport services with parametric demand, leading towards a more comprehensive one. An indepth review of all the contributions in the academic literature is presented, emphasizing both the treatment of variables and the form of the results mostly in terms of frequency and fleet size. A series of partial new elements is also identified. An extension of Jansson's model for a single period is developed analytically, including the effect of vehicle size on operating costs and the influence of crowding on the value of time. Numerical simulations are used for comparison and analysis. A general model is then proposed where bus operations are optimized accounting for a number of simultaneous relations. Finally, the different models are discussed and compared.

关键词： EVA   经营决策评估   经济增加值   贴现现金流   企业   经济模型   供应成本决策   销售合同  

摘要： 一、EVA理论及其理论渊源 EVA,即经济增加值(economic value-added),并不是一个新的概念.作为一种度量公司业绩的指标,EVA成为经济学家工具箱中的一件工具已经有200多年的历史了.长期以来经济学家一直将其称为经济利润.EVA最基本的形式是公司的剩余收入(residual income).也就是说,投资人为了获得适当的回报,投资回报必须大到能够弥补投资风险.如果经营利润(operating return) 刚好等于补偿风险的必要回报,公司的剩余收入就是零.当然,必要回报针对的资本应当既包括股权也包括债权.对于一个特定的企业,EVA是指经营利润减去资本成本之后的剩余值.

关键词： 交通运输   国民经济   国内生产总值   经济模型   预测   区域产业经济结构   旅客运输量   旅客周转量   货物运输量   货物周转量   国内生产总值   线性计量经济模型  

摘要： 交通运输是国家重要的基础产业,对国民经济的发展有着举足轻重的作用,同时对区域产业经济结构的发展也有很直接的影响。本文以交通运输的旅客运输量、旅客周转量、货物运输量、货物周转量为特征指标,通过模拟分析建立国内生产总值与相关特征指标的线性计量经济模型,并对交通运输建设与国民经济发展的供需关系进行定量预测和分析。

关键词： voluntary contributions   economic incentives   warm glow   identity theory  

摘要： In this paper, we present an economic model of moral motivation. Consumers prefer regarding themselves as socially responsible individuals. Voluntary contributions to public goods are motivated by this preference. The self-image as socially responsible is determined by a comparison of one's actual behavior against an endogenous morally ideal behavior. Public policy influences voluntary contributions through its effects on relative prices and budget or time constraints, but also indirectly through the policy's effect on the morally ideal contribution. This implies that economic incentives may have adverse effects on contributions. We present survey data on recycling behavior and voluntary community work, which is consistent with the model predictions. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： economic evaluation   methodology   modeling   validity   varicella vaccination  

摘要： Objectives: The credibility of models rests on their validity. An age-structured decision analytic model, Economic Varicella VaccInation Tool for Analysis (EVITA), has been developed to examine the epidemiologic and economic effects of universal varicella (chicken pox) vaccination in Germany. EVITA combines a varicella transmission module describing the spread of infection in a population over time with a second module describing the course of disease in case of an infection. Any vaccination strategy can be assessed dependent on coverage levels and targeted age group. Model input data include epidemiologic, clinical, and economic information, which were mainly derived from actual varicella cases (retrospective survey). The objective of this study was to illustrate the efforts undertaken to validate the EVITA model. Methods: We assess the descriptive validity, i.e., whether the model provides an adequate picture of the reality and covers all relevant aspects of the spread of varicella and the course of disease. Analyzing the consistency of the model results with observable data does technical verification. Face validity, i.e., the consistency with the underlying theoretical basis of the spread of varicella, is analyzed with respect to results on possible age shifts and elimination of varicella. Tests of corroboration, or convergent validity, are performed by comparisons with other models. Results: Without vaccination, the EVITA model predicts undiscounted, indirect costs of Euro154 million, nearly 40,000 complications and 5,700 hospitalizations per year owing to varicella. These results, especially the distribution of complications and hospitalizations, fit well with population-based survey data. The development of the EVITA model is based on an established epidemiologic model and on real-life data from the survey, ensuring descriptive validity. Results on age shifts and elimination show face validity. Although other models differ considerably with respect to methods

关键词： 时间序列   随机变量   回归分析   传递函数   计量经济模型  

摘要： 基于时间序列分析的基本理论,采用线性回归和传递函数分析方法,研究了机械工业主要经济指标与宏观主要经济指标之间的相互影响关系. 在此基础上,分析比较了机械工业主要经济指标的多元线性回归模型和多输入单输出传递函数模型. 结果显示,传递函数模型比线性回归模型精度更高,更具有普遍性.