关键词： 空间经济模型,港口腹地,大连港  

摘要： 提出了建立港口腹地空间经济模型的分析方法 .针对实际应用中的分析数据量大的情况提出了包括概要腹地确定、定位性经济分析和特定元素空间经济模型建立的渐进的分析模式 ,提高了方法的适用性 .以大连港为例进行了实例建模 ,表明空间经济模型在港口腹地服务潜力评估中具有较强的可操作性 .

关键词： 科技创新   经济模型   知识产权激励   净收益激励   资金平均成本激励  

摘要： 从经济学立场看,科技创新的激励策略主要有知识产权激励、增加净收益激励、减少资金平均成本激励。只有不断提高科技创新的收益率,才会有更多的组织和个人投身于科技创新活动。

关键词： Commitment   Discretion   Exchange rate channel   Stabilization bias  

摘要： This paper compares optimal monetary policy under discretion and commitment in an economy where the direct exchange rate channel is operative. The stabilization bias under discretion is shown to be weaker in an open economy relative to a closed economy. In an open economy, a ‘less conservative central banker’, one that attaches a smaller weight to the variance of inflation in the loss function, can be appointed to replicate the behaviour of real output that eventuates under commitment. Evaluating the social loss function under discretion and commitment, we find that the existence of a direct exchange rate channel in the Phillips Curve mitigates the pronounced differences between the two strategies in case of high persistence in the stochastic shocks. © 2005, Korea International Economic Association.

关键词： decision modeling   rheumatoid arthritis   methods   infliximab   cost-effectiveness  

摘要： Objectives. To compare the analytic judgments, data, and assumptions of different models used in the economic evaluation of infliximab, one of a new class of drugs for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. A detailed assessment was made of 4 models, 1 submitted (in a reimbursement dossier) by the manufacturer, 1 produced by an independent academic group, and 2 recently published in the literature. Factors considered included the key data inputs, assumptions about the sequencing of treatments for RA, the methods used to calculate health utilities, and the estimation of cost offsets. Results. Two of the 4 models, although embodying different methodological approaches, gave fairly similar results (approximately 25,000- pound 35,000 pound cost per additional quality-adjusted life year [QALY] gained). The other 2 models, both by an independent academic group, gave much higher estimates, ranging from 50,000 pound to 60,000 pound to more than 100,000 pound per additional QALY. The differences appeared to depend mainly on differences in model structure, the assumptions about the positioning of infliximab in the treatment sequence, and the relationship between Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) states and QALYs. Conclusions. Economic models of treatments for RA incorporate different key data inputs and analytic judgments. However, convergence was observed in some of the estimates produced by the models, particularly when adjustments were made for some of the differences in input parameters. Nevertheless, differences in the choice of model structure and in key assumptions also had a major impact on results. Therefore, more discussion is needed to reach a consensus on some of these methodological issues.

关键词： forest   soil   degradation   Nepal   bio-economic   model  

摘要： Forest degradation, manifested through decline in forest cover, and the resulting soil erosion and organic carbon losses, is a serious problem caused by a complex coupling of bio-physical, socio-economic and technological factors in the Himalayan watersheds. Greater understanding of the linkages between these factors requires a systems approach. We have proposed such an approach using a bio-economic model to explore the system behaviour of forest degradation, soil erosion, and soil C losses in the forest areas. The outcome of the model simulation over a 20-year period indicates that soil erosion and C loss rates may increase more than four-fold by the year 2020 under the existing socio-economic and biophysical regime (the base scenario). Reductions in the population growth rate, introduction of improved agricultural technology and increase in the prices of major agricultural crops can help slow down the rates of forest decline, soil erosion and C loss or even stabilize or reverse them. The results suggest that economic incentives may be highly effective in the reduction of soil loss, as well as C release to the atmosphere. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： MACROECONOMICS   ECONOMIC models   HYPOTHESIS   METHODOLOGY  

摘要： This paper presents a methodology for employing qualitative and econometric methods for refuting, or falsifying, the hypothesis presented by an economic model expressed in its structural form. The emphasis of the analysis is upon less than fully quantitative specifications of the structural form, e.g., (as here) where only the sign patterns of the arrays expressing the structural model are known. The method presented enables a structural model to be refuted regardless of its state of identification. It is found that different structural models can be equivalent in terms of the criteria they support that enable falsification. Procedures are presented that allow models to be refuted that are only expressed in terms of their algebraic form. Examples are provided for an early, overidentified macroeconomic model and an under-identified microeconomic model. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 知识产权   制度安排   经济模型  

摘要： 随着技术因素在经济增长中作用的凸现,知识产权保护问题正逐渐成为各国经济和法律界关注的焦点。文章以经济分析法学为指导,将经济学的模型引入知识产权保护问题的研究之中,开创性的用经济激励模型和委托—代理模型等微观经济学的理论来探析我国在当前的形势下应该选择怎样的知识产权保护制度安排及对策。

关键词： 经济模型   抛物型需求   最优解  

摘要： 传统的确定性经济批量模型通常都假定需求率是常数,且每周期的相关费用是固定不变的。弱化这些假定,并在每周期的需求依赖于抛物型需求的假设下,提出了带有两货栈的变质性物品在有限计划期内的经济批量模型。研究了该模型具有惟一的整体最优解,并给出应用实例。

关键词： 模拟分析   演化   实验方法   市场经济转轨   宏观经济模型   经济学研究   实验形式   经济实验   微观基础   宏观分析   计划经济   经济现象   经济运行   模拟实验   实践意义   计算机   政策面   技术  

摘要： 经济实验是一种应用于经济学研究的实验形式。大量的演化经济模型借助经济学实验的方法和技术工具,在计算机上模拟微观个体的行为并为宏观分析和微观基础之间建立了有效的桥梁。我国正处于由计划经济向市场经济转轨阶段,传统宏观经济模型在许多新的经济现象和经济政策面前无能为力,运用演化模拟实验深入分析我国经济运行的基本规律,具有重要的理论和实践意义。

关键词： 企业信息化   模糊评价   经济模型   层次分析法  

摘要： 从企业信息化的基本概念出发,根据目的性、全面性、科学性等原则,建立了一个衡量企业信息化水平的科学评价体系。该评价体系包括信息设备及软件系统装备程度和利用程度、信息使用者水平、企业信息化环境和信息化经济效益等5项内容的定量和定性指标。综合我国工业企业的具体情况,对于非量化的企业信息化因素,提出了一种综合模糊评价模型。