关键词： patchy resource environments   spatial externalities   renewable resource management  

摘要： We investigate the performance of subjects in a patchy resource environment in the experimental laboratory to expand the concept of stock misperception into spatial and non-spatial components. Results indicate that substantial heterogeneity exists in the decision heuristics employed that can be used to identify subject "types": steady-state and pulse fishing strategists. While steady-state strategists are only subject to spatial misperceptions, pulse strategists are subject to both forms of misperception. Both subject groups overallocate effort to regions within the fishery that possess the highest rates of emigration, inducing a spatial externality. These spatial misperceptions are exacerbated by the spatial structure present. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： decision theory   separability   bounded rationality   short-term equilibrium   aggregative models   closed graph theorems  

摘要： An aggregative economic model with suboptimizing agents is considered. The ideas of decentralization and price aggregation (as defined in Utility Theory) are applied. The existence of short-term equilibrium is proved relying on closed graph arguments.

关键词： 利率风险管理   市场利率   基层行   定价模型   经济模型   发行利率   付息负债   银行净值   生息资产   内部资金转移价格   期限缺口   负债期限结构   资产负债   农发行   利率敏感性资产   利率敏感性负债   管理探析  

摘要： 随着利率市场化进程步伐加快,利率风险将逐渐成为我国金融业面临的最主要的市场风险.习惯了在利率管制下经营的农发行,如何及时转变思维,建立一套适合自身特点的利率风险管理机制,应对来自于利率市场化的挑战,是一个亟待研究的课题.

关键词： AutoCAD软件   经济模型分析   应用  

摘要： AutoCAD软件已在机械工程、土木工程等领域应用多年,而在经济分析尤其是对经济图形的处理上应用很少,本文将AutoCAD的图形处理功能引入经济分析,介绍了该软件在经济分析中的使用方法。

关键词： Harvesting   ratio-dependent   permanence   bionomic-equilibrium   optimal harvesting  

摘要： This paper deals with the problem of a ratio-dependent preypredator model with combined harvesting. The existence of steady states and their stability are studied using eigenvalue analysis. Boundedness of the exploited system is examined. We derive conditions for persistence and global stability of the system. The possibility of existence of bionomic equilibria has been considered. The problem of optimal harvest policy is then solved by using Pontryagin's maximal principle.

关键词： agent-based modelling   genetic algorithm   fishery management   input controls   effort creep  

摘要： An agent-based bioeconomic fishery model was developed to assist in the design and evaluation of management instruments in an input controlled fishery. The agent-based structure of the model enables the choice of management instruments to be tailored specifically to account for the competitive 'race to fish' and input substitution behaviour observed in input controlled fisheries. The optimal season length and capital investment in the absence of market failure is determined by assuming there is only one agent in the fishery that can internalise all future benefits resulting from sustainable harvest levels. This is then compared with a number of agent-based scenarios, with varying restrictions on fishing inputs, where each individual agent seeks to maximise its own fishing returns subject to the behaviour of other agents. While the results are for a hypothetical fishery, the model provides estimates of the economic cost of this market failure, which in turn provides a benchmark against which the cost of management can be compared. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： D72   D84  

摘要： We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy;public opinion polls;and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly important role for these models. The performance of polls was quite uneven, and predictions both across pollsters, and through time, vary too much to be particularly useful. Betting markets provide an interesting contrast, and a slew of data from various betting agencies suggest a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout the election cycle and across individual electorates.

关键词： household models   partial equilibrium   rural economy   Malawi  

摘要： This article presents the development of a set of programming models describing the major features of different rural livelihoods and of the informal rural economy they together make up in Malawi. The models allow for differentiated responses by different household types to change and for the partial equilibrium effects of consequent supply, demand, and price adjustments in labor and grain markets. The models provide insights into the relations between own-farm and nonown-farm activities in different households' livelihoods and in the informal rural economy as a whole, and are used to investigate possible impacts of increasing cash crop prices and of a more open rural economy. Impacts of these changes on the poor are found to be critically dependent upon supply and demand elasticities in labor and grain markets, but the poor could potentially suffer significant losses from increased openness of the local economy leading to increased expenditure by less poor households on imported goods and services.

关键词： 西藏   宏观经济模型   预测   技术进步   结构调整  

摘要： 文章依据统计数据,采用联立方程模型方法建立了西藏宏观经济模型。设定了稳妥方案、加大投资方案和提高整体技术水平方案,在不同方案下对西藏“十一五”时期主要经济指标进行预测。模拟分析表明,在制定政策时应重点关注投资、技术进步、结构调整、收入与消费等四个方面。

关键词： 蒲勇健   实证研究   张宗益   定价模型   经济模型   汪应洛   张世英   王浣尘   博弈分析   管理工程学   产业工程学   全员创新   期限结构   实证分析   曾勇   何建   目录   检索工具  

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