关键词： 供水成本   水利工程   经济模型  

摘要： 供水成本是确定供水价格的基础,也是水利工程市场化开发建设研究的重要内容,其主要由供水生产成本、生产费用组成,本文对太阳山供水工程供水成本构成要素进行了详细分析,并建立了对应的供水成本经济模型,作为工程水价制定和市场化融资开发的依据。

关键词： 二元经济模型   修正   农业剩余劳动力  

摘要： 本文在刘易斯二元经济模型的基础上探讨我国农业剩余劳动力流动的效应问题。

关键词： 中国   经济模型   社会主义   计划经济  

摘要： 1. Causes for the launching of the Great Leap Forward According to Li Xiangqian, the follow- ing factors contributed to the

关键词： urban sprawl   open space   neighbourhood externalities   cellular automata   residential dynamics  

摘要： This paper presents a microeconomic model of residential location that explores the emergence of a mixed belt where residents and farmers coexist beyond a city. The model is based on integrating urban economics with cellular automata in order to simulate equilibrium patterns in 2D and through time. Households commute to a CBD and enjoy neighbourhood externalities that are a function of both local residential density and farmland, or open space. They bid on the competitive land market and locate so as to maximize utility. Incremental population growth changes the neighbourhood and leads to rent adaptations. With appropriate parameter values a mixed belt may emerge between the urban and agricultural specialized areas. Settlements within this mixed area are more or less clustered or scattered depending on preferences and neighbourhood size. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： anticoagulants   cost-effectiveness   economics   warfarin  

摘要： Objective: To construct a semi-Markov model to compare health outcomes and medical costs associated with warfarin and a second anticoagulant over 1 - and 5-year periods. Design: We posited a hypothetical cohort of 10 000 identical 70-year-old patients with atrial fibrillation. We posited 20 scenarios for events that included four possibilities for ischemic strokes (mild, moderate, severe, death) and 16 possibilities for hemorrhages. The model allowed for four levels of International Normalized Ratio. Event rates were based on outcomes in clinical trials and observational studies. Costs were estimated from the perspective of the third-party payer. Results: The greatest cost-generating events were virtually the same for the two drugs and included severe stroke ($1758 548 for 1 year for both drugs), moderate stroke ($380355 for 1 year for both drugs), and severe lower gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage ( $193 804 for 1 year for warfarin and $193 474 for second drug). The least costly events for both drugs were mild intracranial or intracerebral hemorrhage ($7584 for warfarin and $4314 for second drug) and fatal upper Gl hemorrhage ($16 781 and $16 752). Total costs for adverse events over 5 years were similar: $18 330 662 for warfarin and $17102847 for the second drug. Fatalities for 5 years were 123 for warfarin and 101 for the non-warfarin drug. Varying assumptions for nursing home care and numbers of ischemic strokes and hemorrhages generated the widest variation in costs. Limitations: We did not account for out-of pocket expenses, 'pain and suffering' costs, or variation across practice settings. Conclusions: There was substantial variation in numbers and costs of adverse events across 20 scenarios, and for fatalities between the two drugs, but variation in costs between the two drugs was modest.

关键词： lumbar spine   arthroplasty   disc replacement   fusion   arthrodesis   economic model  

摘要： BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Degenerative disc disease (DDD) is a cause of low back pain commonly requiring surgical intervention. The option of lumbar total disc replacement (TDR) represents an advance in the surgical treatment of DDD. However, new treatments, particularly those that include the use of new implants, may lead to increased costs to both hospitals and payers. Therefore, it is both necessary and appropriate to examine the potential costs associated with a new procedure such as total disc replacement compared with traditional treatments for a specific pathology. PURPOSE: To perform an economic analysis of lumbar TDR versus three different techniques for lumbar fusion. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: A cost-minimization model. METHODS: An economic model examining hospital and payer cost perspectives was developed to compare costs of TDR with the CHARITE (R) Artificial Disc to three spinal fusion procedures: anterior lumbar interbody fusion (ALIF) with iliac crest bone graft (ICBG);ALIF with INFUSE (R) Bone Graft and LT-Cages, and instrumented posterior lumbar interbody fusion (IPLIF) with ICBG. The hospital perspective compares direct medical costs during the index hospitalization. The payer perspective considers direct medical costs of the index hospitalization and those incurred in the following two-year period. The model contains a Diagnostic Related Group (DRG) arm based strictly on DRG coding and payment, and a per-diem arm that includes a device carve-out cost and payment. RESULTS: In the DRG and per-diem arms of the model, compared with TDR, hospital costs are 12.0% higher for ALTF with ICBG, 36.5% higher for ALIF with INFUSE, and 36.5% higher for IPLIF. For payers, in the per-diem arm compared with TDR, ALIF with ICBG has 4.4% lower cost, whereas ALIF with INFUSE and IPLIF have costs of 16.1 % and 27.1 % higher, respectively. In the DRG arm compared with TDR, payer cost is 87.1 % higher for ALIF with ICBG, 82.8% higher for ALIF with INFUSE, and 99.0% higher for IPL

关键词： 数学分析方法   企业经济管理   经济模型   应用   依存关系   经济变量   数学方程   经济思想  

摘要： 数学分析是通过模型这座桥梁将思想连接起来的。经济模型（economic model）是用图、表、文字和数学方程来表达同研究对象有关的经济变量之间的依存关系的理论结构。通过模型，我们可以用数学语言阐释经济思想，可以借助现代数学理论对思想进行定性或定量的严密推导，从而得出内部逻辑前后一致的结论。还可以用大量客观事实检验我们构建起来的模型，

关键词： 环境改善   经济增长   环境影响   生态效率   特征点   特征值  

摘要： 提出了一种以改善环境质量为目的的环境管理规划新方法。从分析环境负荷与经济发展的关系出发,获得了环境管理特征曲线。提出了对环境管理具有重要意义的4个环境负荷特征点:分离点、涨停点、下降点和恢复点。计算了特征点发生的年份,以及经济增长(社会GDP)和另外两个环境参数,即生态效率和环境负荷等参数的无因次特征值。以中国Fe、Cu、Zn、Pb和Hg的环境负荷为例,说明了环境管理特征曲线在环境管理与规划中的应用方法,除此之外,对这5种金属有关的环境参数做出了近50年的管理规划,并通过典型案例分析了环境管理目标实现的可能性。

关键词： 价格指数   通货膨胀   可比价格  

摘要： 讨论了经济模型中不同类型数据的使用所产生的效果问题。一个模型中不同经济变量使用可比价格和当年价格计算的这两种不同类型的数据时,就会产生被扭曲的结论;而当使用所有变量的当年价格计算的数据时,模型是具有一定使用价值的,但是与可比价格结果有一些差别。另外,通过采取比值等方法能够自然抵消掉价格因素。

关键词： 中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)   宏观经济   人民币升值  

摘要： 厦门大学中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)是一个开放经济条件下需求导向的小型动态季度宏观模型。它基于近期中国宏观经济的主要特征设定方程,利用宏观季度数据估计模型。自2006年夏投入运行以来,CQMM已开始定期发布预测数据并进行政策模拟分析。该模型对2007-2008年中国宏观经济形势进行预测,模拟人民币不同升值幅度(3%或6%)对宏观经济的影响。CQMM是目前少数投入运行并准备定期发表经济预测及政策模拟评估的宏观经济季度模型。