关键词： Small open economy   Stationarity   Borrowing constraints  

摘要： I show that the alternative stationarity-inducing techniques that have been used to "close" the standard small open economy model (like an endogenous discount factor and a debt-elastic interest rate premium) have different implications for the equilibrium dynamics once I add a commonly-used collateral-type financial constraint. Given this non-equivalence, my results further show that a small open economy model with a credit constraint that embodies an endogenous discount factor is superior to the debt-elastic interest rate model when one tries to match this kind of models to the data.

关键词： Artificial intelligence   Machine learning   Deep learning   Neural network   Stochastic gradient   Dynamic models   Model reduction   Dynamic programming   Bellman equation   Euler equation   Value functio  

摘要： We introduce a unified deep learning method that solves dynamic economic models by casting them into nonlinear regression equations. We derive such equations for three fun-damental objects of economic dynamics - lifetime reward functions, Bellman equations and Euler equations. We estimate the decision functions on simulated data using a stochas-tic gradient descent method. We introduce an all-in-one integration operator that facil-itates approximation of high-dimensional integrals. We use neural networks to perform model reduction and to handle multicollinearity. Our deep learning method is tractable in large-scale problems, e.g., Krusell and Smith (1998). We provide a TensorFlow code that accommodates a variety of applications. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： demand response   forecast method   load modeling   residential energy management system  

摘要： To forecast the demand response of a residential customer, forecasted load profiles must first be calculated and the demand response produced by residential energy management devices determined. Finding an efficient method to select an optimal forecasted load profile to assess the demand response of these devices is a fundamental issue currently overlooked. Poorly forecasted load profiles can affect customer compensation for demand reduction, estimation of retail profits and allocation and reconciliation processes for electricity markets. This research resolved to develop an economic model for selecting an optimal forecasted load profile from which the demand response of residential energy management devices can be determined. Using 2 years of half-hourly electricity consumption data for 5379 households obtained from the "Low Carbon" London project (UK), a novel economic model was created to assess the economic advantage of nine different forecast methods. Results suggest that when creating forecasted load profiles to measure demand response of these devices the sociodemographic of customers, tariff type and the operational objectives of the device must be taken into account to maximize the economic benefit of demand response initiatives for the customer and retailer.

关键词： Electricity economics   Electricity storage   Optimal control  

摘要： This paper develops microeconomic models of electricity storage. The full economic potential of price arbitrage with nodal storage hinges not only on battery characteristics (energy-to-power ratio) but crucially also on the quality of price forecasting. Economic theory can also quantify the intrinsic profitability limitations as increased storage deployment smoothes price variations. The profitability of supply-side storage for intermittent power producers depends on the exposure to curtailment risk and thus the empirical distribution of negative price episodes. Demand-side storage can be economical when improved utilization of existing power lines avoids expanding them, and this trade-off potential is captured in a theoretical model. Economic magnitudes are explored with zonal prices from Ontario, which has some of the most volatile electricity prices in North America. Wider use of locational marginal prices in wholesale electricity markets will incentivize efficient deployment of electricity storage and also induce intermittent power producers to internalize curtailment risk appropriately.

摘要： We investigate a spatial economic growth model with bounded population growth to obtain the asymptotic behavior of detrended capital in a continuous space. The formation of capital accumulation is expressed by a partial differential equation with corresponding boundary conditions. The capital accumulation interacts with the morphology to affect the optimal dynamics of economic growth. After redrafting the spatial growth model in the infinite dimensional Hilbert space, we identify the unique optimal control and value function when the bounded population growth is considered. With nonnegative initial distribution of capital, the explicit solution of the model is obtained. The time behavior of the explicit solution guarantees the convergence issue of the detrended capital level across space and time.

关键词： 成本随供求变化   数学经济模型   构建与应用  

摘要： 数学经济模型是现代应用较为广泛的一种经济管理模式,在生物、化工及医疗卫生领域都得到了应用,而基于成本随供求变化的数学经济模型则能够有效提高企业经营能力、成本控制能力,由此可见数学经济模型的重要性。对此,本文以某品牌电子厂商为例,分析了成本随供求变化的数学经济模型的构建与应用。

关键词： Biological system modeling   Economics   Computational modeling   Government   Finance   Scalability   Distributed databases   Agent-based economic models   high-performance computing   one-to-one scale simulations   large economies   scale-free graphs   message passing interface   OpenMP  

摘要： We present a scalable high-performance computing implementation of an agent-based economic model using distributed + shared-memory hybrid parallelization paradigms, capable of simulating 1:1 scale models of large economies like the eurozone. Agent-based economic models consist of millions of agents interacting over several graphs, which are either centralized or scale-free in nature. While most of the interactions are bi-directional, the interaction graphs are dense and random and keep evolving as the simulation progresses. These characteristics cause a very large and unknown number of random communications among MPI processes, posing challenges to developing scalable parallel extensions. Further, random access to large volume of data makes the algorithms highly memory-bound, severely degrading computational performance. Adopting various strategies inspired by the real-world functioning of economies, we reduce the large unknown number of communications to a known handful number. Memory-intensive algorithms are improved to make these cache-efficient, and advanced MPI functions are used to minimize communication overhead, thereby attaining higher performance and scalability. Further, an MPI + OpenMP hybrid model is developed to best utilize modern many-core computing nodes with low per-core memory capacity. It is demonstrated that our implementation can simulate a full fledged economic model with 331 million agents within 108 seconds using 128 CPU cores attaining 70 percent strong scalability.

关键词： 古典假定   劳动收入份额   总消费   非线性  

摘要： 研究总消费有两大范式——新古典强调理性人跨期优化,马克思和后凯恩斯主义则强调劳资分配对总体消费率的影响。基于谢克对生产函数的批判,可以证明跨期优化下的消费的动态规律基本等同于利润率决定增长率的"剑桥增长方程"。然而,劳动收入份额不仅决定着总体消费率,还影响着总需求和收入的形成。基于马克思对消费行为的分析,本文在一个马克思-后凯恩斯资本积累框架下引入古典假定,抽象掉来自资本收入的消费,同时考察劳动收入份额对消费占比和总需求的双重影响,得到其与总消费之间的非线性关系。中国的数据很好地验证了该关系。结果表明,在当前积累体制下,提高劳动份额促进消费增长的空间有限,因为对利润的挤压会减少投资,进而减少总需求。因此,要促进总消费持续增长,就必须在提高劳动收入份额的同时,稳住投资水平,并通过技术创新提高潜在产能水平刺激投资增长,将需求管理和供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来。

关键词： growth acceleration   poverty trap   poverty reduction  

摘要： We propose a simple theoretical dual economy model to study the dynamics of an economy in which individuals move out of a poverty trap. These dynamics are characterized by growth acceleration. This model implies that poverty reduction could, under some circumstances, cause growth, rather than the other way around. We define a measurement of the growth impulse that could be triggered by independent exits from poverty and correlate it with observed growth ccelerations. This correlation is both positive and significant, and it passes various robustness checks.