关键词： 经济模型课程   教学改革   授课方式  

摘要： 本文通过问卷调查,对经济模型课程教学的现状进行了分析。调查显示,实际中对于经济模型分析与应用课程的知识需求情况是受到学生普遍认可的,学生也非常欢迎教师进行适当的教学改革和及时进行内容更新。但在经济模型课程授课过程中仍然存在很多问题,为此,笔者针对这些存在问题提出了完善激励机制、加强教学方式的多样性等相应的改革对策。

关键词： 离心泵   内漏   状态检修   经济模型   预知性维修  

摘要： 离心泵入口密封环间隙变大导致的泄漏,会使设备整体性能下降,从而造成能耗增加,需要进行检修。出于总体经济效益的考虑,在状态监测的基础上,提出了确定最佳检修时机的经济模型。首先分析了入口密封环泄漏对性能曲线的影响,在此基础上依据状态监测的测量数据,确定性能变化后的曲线,得出维持原有运行状态的额外能耗,综合考虑平均每月的检修费用和额外能耗费用,建立离心泵内漏状态检修经济模型。实例表明,该模型可以比较方便地确定预知性维修的最佳时机,利于从检修角度来提高总体经济效益。

关键词： PATHOLOGICAL laboratories   IMMUNOHISTOCHEMISTRY   TURNAROUND time   COST estimates   WORKFLOW   MANAGEMENT controls   QUALITY control   MICROSCOPE slides  

摘要： Context.-The need for higher efficiency, maximum quality, and faster turnaround time is a continuous focus for anatomic pathology laboratories and drives changes in work scheduling, instrumentation, and management control systems. Objective.-To determine the costs of generating routine, special, and immunohistochemical microscopic slides in a large, academic anatomic pathology laboratory using a top-down approach. Design.-The Pathology Economic Model Tool was used to analyze workflow processes at The Nebraska Medical Center's anatomic pathology laboratory. Data from the analysis were used to generate complete cost estimates, which included not only materials, consumables, and instrumentation but also specific labor and overhead components for each of the laboratory's subareas. The cost data generated by the Pathology Economic Model Tool were compared with the cost estimates generated using relative value units. Results.-Despite the use of automated systems for different processes, the workflow in the laboratory was found to be relatively labor intensive. The effect of labor and overhead on per-slide costs was significantly underestimated by traditional relative-value unit calculations when compared with the Pathology Economic Model Tool. Specific workflow defects with significant contributions to the cost per slide were identified. Conclusions.-The cost of providing routine, special, and immunohistochemical slides may be significantly underestimated by traditional methods that rely on relative value units. Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis may identify specific workflow processes requiring improvement. (Arch Pathol Lab Med. 2010;134: 1164-1169)

关键词： 区域自主创新能力   经济模型   区域创新系统   经济发展“门槛效应”  

摘要： 提高自主创新能力，建立创新型国家已经成为我国的基本战略。针对国内外学者对于区域自主创新能力影响因素的归纳和总结，建立区域创新能力影响因素的概念模型，并且结合我国2007年科技年鉴数据对这些因素进行计量分析，综合考虑了数据量纲问题、异方差问题和多重共线性的影响，通过模型的检验，最终确立了影响我国区域自主创新能力因素的计量经济学模型，通过对模型结果的分析为提升我国区域自主创新能力提供一定的政策借鉴。

关键词： 房屋销售价格指数   经济适用房   人均可支配收入  

摘要： 近几年北京的房价上涨迅速,使得广大工薪阶层只能望楼却步。为何房价涨幅如此迅速?本文从市民购买力和经济适用房角度,搜集了北京2000～2008年间人均地区生产总值、年末常住人口、人均可支配收入和经济适用房销售面积等相关数据,通过计量分析方法寻找其中的原因,并提出合理化建议。

关键词： Adverse effects/events   Economic models   Decision modeling   Decision analytic models   Cost-effectiveness analysis   Health technology assessment research  

摘要： Background: Clearly the benefits of a treatment must not be outweighed by the adverse effects. If researchers fail to incorporate adverse effects adequately in models, this could limit the validity of the results obtained. In the worst case, interventions that are cost-effective may be shown not to be. The aim of this research was to review current practice when incorporating adverse effects in economic models. Methods: A survey of HTA reports commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme, published between 2004 and 2007 was conducted. All reports which investigated the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a health technology using a systematic review and an economic model framework were included. Results: A total of eighty reports met the inclusion criteria. Of the models including adverse effects (43/80), 67 percent used a clinical adverse effects parameter, 79 percent a cost of adverse effects parameter, 86 percent used one of these, and 60 percent used both. Of the thirty-seven models that did not include adverse effects, eighteen justified this omission, most commonly lack of data;nineteen appeared to make no explicit consideration of adverse effects in the model. Conclusions: In many cases, poor reporting made it difficult to ascertain if there had been any consideration of adverse effects. We suggest that the findings of this survey support a call for much clearer and explicit reporting of adverse effects, or their exclusion, in decision models and for explicit recognition in future guidelines that "all relevant outcomes" should include some consideration of adverse events.

关键词： Economic evaluation   Health equivalent to dead   Health worse than dead   Maximum endurable time   QALYs  

摘要： We introduce a formal definition of health equivalent to dead into a standard model to develop previously unrecognized insights. We find that the health state viewed as equivalent to dead will depend on an individual's health prognosis, probability of survival, and rate of time preference. Our work on maximum endurable time shows that using QALY scores based on long-run preferences to value health states that last for shorter periods can alter cardinal and ordinal valuations. Simulations show that errors of substantial magnitude in QALY scores can consequently result. We describe situations where biases are likely and identify possible corrections. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： decision models   health economics methods   health surveys   health-state utility   methodology  

摘要： Background: The methods used to estimate health-state utility values (HSUV) for multiple health conditions can produce very different values. Economic results generated using baselines of perfect health are not comparable with those generated using baselines adjusted to reflect the HSUVs associated with the health condition. Despite this, there is no guidance on the preferred techniques and little research describing the effect on cost per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) results when using the different methods. Methods: Using a cardiovascular disease (CVD) model and cost per QALY thresholds, we assess the consequence of using different baseline health-state utility profiles (perfect health, no history of CVD, general population) in conjunction with models (minimum, additive, multiplicative) frequently used to approximate scores for health states with multiple health conditions. HSUVs are calculated using the EQ-5D UK preference-based algorithm. Results: Assuming a baseline of perfect health ignores the natural decline in quality of life associated with age, overestimating the benefits of treatment. The results generated using baselines from the general population are comparable to those obtained using baselines from individuals with no history of CVD. The minimum model biases results in favor of younger-aged cohorts. The additive and multiplicative models give similar results. Conclusion: Although further research in additional health conditions is required to support our findings, our results highlight the need for analysts to conform to an agreed reference case. We demonstrate that in CVD, if data are not available from individuals without the health condition, HSUVs from the general population provide a reasonable approximation.

关键词： Nuclear seawater desalination   Cogeneration   Desalination Economic Evaluation Program (DEEP)   Sensitivity analysis  

摘要： The IAEA DEEP software has been used worldwide for the economic evaluation of desalination plants (thermal or electrical) coupled with various energy sources (nuclear, fossil fueled or renewable). Throughout the years, the software was updated constantly. Such updates included the user interface and model structure but not the economic models. Previous continuous development was culminated in the development of the DEEP 3.2 version which has been recently released in 2009. This paper presents a step forwards in the continuous effort to maintain high standards and reliability of DEEP. It also scrutinizes methods used, assumptions made, and constants or default values originally used. The validity of calculations as well as the identification of the most important parameters is presented. Sensitivity analysis is used to identify the most important parameters in the DEEP model. Overall, the review proves that both the DEEP economic model and software implementation are solid for economic evaluation of dual purpose plants. Based on results presented and recommendations made, a new version of DEEP is expected to be released in 2010 which will address minor issues and improvements. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Environmental Kuznets curve   Pollution   Turning point   Inverted-U-shape   N-shape   Lambda-shape   Economic growth   Real option  

摘要： The 'environmental Kuznets curve' (EKC) refers to an inverted-U-shaped relationship between some pollutant level and per capita income, i.e., the environmental quality deteriorates at early stages of economic growth and subsequently improves at a later stage. Since the early 1990s, a considerable number of empirical studies have been conducted on the EKC and, although there is no conclusive proof, it has been recognized that the EKC emerges as an empirical regularity. However, some recent studies cast doubt on the concept and methodology of empirical results, and evidence of the existence of the EKC has been questioned. In fact, how economic growth affects the environmental quality (i.e. the shape of the EKC) is still controversial. In order to identify the actual relationship between the environmental quality and economic growth, it is essential to develop economic models from various points of view. This paper overviews the current stage of theoretical models that explain such relationship. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.