关键词： 矿床地质经济模型   品位-吨位模型   东天山   铜镍矿   矿产预测  

摘要： 以中国铜镍硫化物矿床成矿规律研究现状和2005年全国储量平衡表为依据,在分析总结国内外品位-吨位模型研究的基础上,建立了中国铜镍硫化物矿床的矿床地质经济模型,主要包括描述性模型和品位-吨位模型。并以新疆东天山为例,采用矿床地质经济模型法对铜镍硫化物矿床的资源潜力进行评价,共圈定29个矿田级远景区,估算铜资源量453×104t,镍资源量448×104t,表明东天山地区该类型矿床资源潜力较大。

关键词： CGE模型   可计算一般均衡模型   宏观经济模型   述评   环境   经济计量模型   微观理论   新古典  

摘要： 作为一种新兴的经济模型，可计算一般均衡模型（Computable General Equilibrium，CGE）可以应用于许多研究领域，并能提出实际的政策建议。与广为流行的经济计量模型不同，CGE模型是一个基于新古典微观理论且内在一致的宏观经济模型。

关键词： public administration   varieties of capitalism   markets   state   employment   P5 comparative economic systems   H7 state and local government   J5 labor-management relations  

摘要： This article examines the relationship between public administration regimes and market economy models in 20 member countries from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Building on Pollitt and Bouckaert's (2004) description of politico-administrative regimes, we compile a data set of cross-national public administration indicators to explore public employment and politico-administrative regulation. Our explorative statistical analysis identifies three distinct public administration regimes: an Anglo-American, a French/German and a Scandinavian regime. The Anglo-American and French/German regimes show, especially with regard to public employment regulation, a high degree of institutional coherence with the co-ordination rules applying to the market economy. Findings for the Scandinavian administration regime do not support the institutional coherence argument, which leads us to conclude that the legal origin of a country may play an important role in linking and synchronizing the mode of regulation in the public and private spheres of the political economy.

关键词： Economic analysis  

摘要： Chronic diseases affect around 80% of older Australians, are main causes of premature death, and account for 70% of health expenditures. The novel features, building and validation of an Australian prototype model-system which simulates interventions that target several chronic diseases are described. Chronic disease progression models are linked to a population-wide microsimulation projection model that accounts for demographic, socio-economic and health characteristics, comorbidities, health expenditures, quality of life. It estimates costs vs. benefits of simulated policy interventions. The outcome is a validated person-level prototype able to simultaneously model diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD). An illustrative model application is also presented. Copyright © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

关键词： Output growth forecasts   Inflation forecasts   Model selection   Structural change   Forecast evaluation   Real-time data  

摘要： We evaluate various economic models' relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the models' relative performance can vary over time. We show that the models' relative performance have, in fact, changed dramatically over time, for both revised and real-time data, and investigate possible factors that might explain such changes. In addition, this paper establishes two empirical stylized facts. Specifically, most predictors for output growth lost their predictive ability in the mid-1970s, and became essentially useless over the last two decades. When forecasting inflation, on the other hand, fewer predictors are significant, and their predictive ability worsened significantly around the time of the Great Moderation. (C) 2009 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 金融危机   危机管理   经济学失灵   经济研究者失灵:危机根源  

摘要： 本文分析的问题包括两个:(1)当前金融危机的根源是什么?(2)关于当前危机的根源以及克服危机的解决方案,经济学家都做出了什么贡献?或者说,为什么经济学家也无法提供令人信服的答案?很显然经济学的专业人士没有意识到这一迫在眉睫的全球金融和经济危机并大大低估了它可能带来的全球性问题和后果。本文首要的分析便是探寻导致这些失利的原因所在,通过指明这些失利对经济学以及经济政策产生的影响,进而得出我们的结论。

关键词： 政策性金融机构   国际金融危机   20世纪80年代以来   宏观经济模型   西方主流经济学   认知   金融市场   自我监管  

摘要： 20世纪80年代以来直至此次国际金融危机发生之前，由欧美主导的经济与金融的全球化进展得相当顺利，人们越来越相信市场可以自我监管，而且会自我修正。标准的宏观经济模型认为金融市场总是有效的，而带有明显政府干预色彩的政策性金融机构则会扭曲价格、效率低下。然而，西方主流经济学的模型不仅未能预见此次危机的发生，

关键词： 工资指导线   Stata/SE10.1   主成分分析法  

摘要： 工资问题是涉及国计民生的重大问题,特别是在我国现阶段不同行业工资差距较大,分配不均衡的情况下,合理制定工资指导线水平基准线,对调节行业和企业员工工资水平、协调工资关系、缓解分配不公可起到积极稳妥的作用。针对江苏省工资基本状况,选取一些具有代表性的指标,应用统计软件Stata/SE 10.1,采用主成分分析法,建立江苏省工资指导线水平基准线的计量经济模型。模型结果表明:GDP增长率、社会劳动生产率增长率与城镇居民消费价格增长率对江苏平均工资具有促进作用,而财政收入增长率对江苏省平均工资起抑制作用,说明江苏省财政收入挤压了老百姓的收入。

关键词： 绿色建筑   节水   全生命周期   增量成本   综合效益   经济模型  

摘要： 通过对影响绿色建筑节水项目全生命周期过程综合效益的构成要素的分析,采用净现值作为综合效益的评价和衡量指标,构建了含节水直接效益、环境社会效益和全生命周期增量成本在内的综合效益经济模型,并在西部某绿色建筑住宅小区节水示范项目中进行模拟应用,验证了该模型的合理性和实用性.模拟结果表明,该项目全生命周期综合效益为3 929万元,全生命周期增量成本为933万元,效费比为4.2∶1,节水项目全生命周期综合效益显著.