关键词： 《联合国气候变化框架公约》   经济理念   模型开发   低碳   公益性   《京都议定书》   应用   科研  

摘要： 由人为温室气体排放所引起的全球变暖问题日益引起国际社会的广泛关注。从《联合国气候变化框架公约》签署到《京都议定书》生效，再到《哥本哈根协议》的艰难谈判，关于发展权与排放权的讨论不断升级，也催生了低碳经济理念的迅速发展。发展低碳经济不仅是全球应对气候变暖的有效途径，

关键词： 渔业生物资产   价值评估   生物经济模型  

摘要： 随着市场经济体制的完善,农业产业化的迅速发展,涉及渔业生物资产的交易、租赁、保险等业务越来越多,人们对渔业生物资产现时价值的需求越来越强烈。然而渔业生物资产具有生物转化和自然增殖功能,且生活在水域中并大部分处于不断运动状态,其价值随着生物的生命运动轨迹不断变化。针对这种特殊性,如何评估渔业生物资产价值成为当前资产评估领域亟待研究的课题。鉴于此,本文结合渔业生物资产的生长规律,借鉴Pope年龄结构的世代分析和Jones体长结构的世代分析,引用Von Betalanffy生长方程,建立了渔业生物经济模型,为渔业生物资产价值评估提供一种新思路。

关键词： 低碳经济模型   模型管理   低碳经济能力评价   情景计算   模型应用  

摘要： 促进中国低碳经济发展是应对气候变化,实现社会经济可持续发展的有效途径。提出了中国低碳经济模型管理与应用框架结构。基于宏观经济模块、政策分析模块、动态模块和碳排放模块对低碳经济模型进行管理。提出了低碳经济能力评价算法,该算法可以根据不同输入数据实现动态评价功能并进行空间可视化分析。设定4种情景进行情景计算,基准情景、结构优化情景、政策情景和倒逼情景。在4种情景中,可以设定不同的年份,参考GDP增速,假定产业结构和能源结构,通过计算得出指定情景下的低碳指标,以此确定是否达到低碳的结果。针对低碳经济数据进行数理统计,获得不同指标间的关系与变化趋势。另外,将基于低碳经济模型计算获得的数据与空间信息进行关联,可以直观反映不同区域低碳经济发展的状态与变化,为经济发展和保护环境提供技术支持。经系统验证,证明该系统能满足实际需求。

关键词： 技术标准   集群化   农产品   协调发展   城乡市场   内生变量   经济模型   经济体系  

摘要： 一、问题的提出 当前城乡市场协调发展的种种热点问题大致可以分为两类，一类是内生的问题，另一类是外生的问题。城乡市场协调发展的内生问题与经济体系的内生变量有相似之处，在于都是“内生”，在哲学上称为“内因”，是决定事物发展本质的因素或内力。在经济模型中，内生变量是由模型所要决定的变量。

关键词： 全球经济   增长点   国际金融危机   宏观经济模型   管理公司   危机时期   资源经济   研究院  

摘要： 席卷全球的国际金融危机影响深远。在此背景下，咨询管理公司埃森哲日前携手牛津经济学研究院，采用宏观经济模型，对后国际金融危机时期的全球经济进行了深入分析研究，并于2011年4月份发表题为《新一波的增长》的研究报告。研究发现，未来十年（2011—2020），全球经济在四大领域潜力巨大，即银发经济、资源经济、多样化的技术以及新兴市场。

关键词： 实物期权   企业   实物资产   NPV   斯科尔斯   定价模型   企业管理   经济模型   项目投资决策   期权定价理论   价格理论   标的资产   现金流量   现金流   投资额   价值链  

摘要： 由于市场风险的不确定性,实物期权在实际应用中应考虑一些不确定性因素的影响,以往在风险投资、企业价值评估、技术创新等实际应用领域的研究中重在突出实物期权的优越性,却忽略了其隐含的局限性,本文的目的就在于结合实物期权的基本原理分析实物期权在项目投资决策中的应用实例。

关键词： Economic models   Economic development   Environmental policy   Greenhouse gases   Air pollution laws  

摘要： We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits;however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

关键词： Shrimp fisheries   Selectivity   Bycatch   Mitigation   Bioeconomics   Modelling  

摘要： Tropical shrimp fisheries are characterized by various interactions with their natural environment and with other fisheries. These latter interactions can be explained by the high quantity of bycatch taken by industrial trawler fleets, which has a significant impact on fish populations associated with shrimps and thus also on finfish fisheries. Bycatch also includes emblematic species, which are subject to strict conservation measures decided by the international community. It seems important to identify and assess the biological and economic consequences of different mitigation measures (increase of mesh size, turtle excluder devices and bycatch reducing devices). This communication is based on case studies undertaken on the Indian white prawn (Fenneropenaeus indicus) and speckled shrimp (Metapenaeus monoceros) fisheries in Madagascar and on the brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus subtilis) and pink spotted shrimp (Farfantepenaeus brasiliensis) fishery in French Guiana. A review of the impacts of these fisheries on resources and ecosystems is made and some results of experiments on mitigation devices given. Finally, the results of simulations obtained using a multi-species, multi-fleet, age-structured bioeconomic model, including modifications of catchability and costs related to the adoption of these devices, is presented and discussed.

关键词： Heart failure   Hospitalization   Direct costs   Meta-analysis  

摘要： Aims To assess the cost-effectiveness and the cost utility of remote patient monitoring (RPM) when compared with the usual care approach based upon differences in the number of hospitalizations, estimated from a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Methods and results We reviewed the literature published between January 2000 and September 2009 on multidisciplinary heart failure (HF) management, either by usual care or RPM to retrieve the number of hospitalizations and length of stay (LOS) for HF and for any cause. We performed a meta-analysis of 21 RCTs (5715 patients). Remote patient monitoring was associated with a significantly lower number of hospitalizations for HF [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.77, 95% CI 0.65-0.91, P < 0.001] and for any cause (IRR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79-0.96, P = 0.003), while LOS was not different. Direct costs for hospitalization for HF were approximated by diagnosis-related group (DRG) tariffs in Europe and North America and were used to populate an economic model. The difference in costs between RPM and usual care ranged from (sic)300 to (sic)1000, favouring RPM. These cost savings combined with a quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gain of 0.06 suggest that RPM is a 'dominant' technology over existing standard care. In a budget impact analysis, the adoption of an RPM strategy entailed a progressive and linear increase in costs saved. Conclusions The novel cost-effectiveness data coupled with the demonstrated clinical efficacy of RPM should encourage its acceptance amongst clinicians and its consideration by third-party payers. At the same time, the scientific community should acknowledge the lack of prospectively and uniformly collected economic data and should request that future studies incorporate economic analyses.

关键词： ECONOMIC models   DENSITY functionals   INTEGRO-differential equations   COLLISION phenomena (Physics)   RELAXATION (Gas dynamics)  

摘要： A step-by-step procedure to derive analytically the exact dynamical evolution equations of the probability density functions (PDFs) of well-known kinetic wealth exchange economic models is shown. This technique gives a dynamical insight into the evolution of the PDF, for example, allowing the calculation of its relaxation times. Their equilibrium PDFs can also be calculated by finding its stationary solutions. This gives as a result an integro-differential equation, which can be solved analytically in some cases and numerically in others. This should provide some guidance into the type of PDFs that can be derived from particular economic agent exchange rules or, for that matter, any other kinetic model of gases with particular collision physics.