关键词： 经济模型   疏穗   可持续性   可溶性固形物含量   葡萄酒   量身定制   成本   负载量  

摘要： 疏穗是降低葡萄负载量并提高成熟参数（如可溶性固形物含量）的方法，有时还可以提高葡萄酒的质量，这一措施经常在田间实施。但由于疏穗增加了成本和降低了产量，其实用性经常遭到质疑。本研究介绍了一种新的疏穗方法，集合了常见的产量和成本数据，以及葡萄质量和预期成本的估计数据（用葡萄质量和预期成本的估计数据把一般产量和成本数据结合在一起）。通过研究，建立了一个特制（量身定制的）的经济模型，

关键词： Markov model   discounting   antihypertensive medication  

摘要： Discounting adjusts future costs and benefits in terms of their present value. The purpose of this study was to present the effect of discounting on Markov model prepared for the evaluation of the different antihypertensive treatments in Serbia. The Markov model consisting of eight states with the cycle length of six months was constructed. Comparator strategies were diuretic, beta blocker;calcium channel blocker and ACE inhibitors. All therapeutic strategies were compared with strategy no intervention". Complications of hypertension (acute myocardial infraction, angina pectoris or stroke alone or in combinations) and total mortality were observed as outcomes. Time horizon of the study was lifetime of the patient or 100 years old, due to assumption that 99% of the cohort would die at that age. Analyses were performed from the third-party payer perspective. Annual discount rate of 5% was applied at all future costs and effects. Undiscounted results showed that patients who started treatment with a beta blocker had the highest life expectancy (49.00 QALY) and being the most cost-effective strategy (ICER = (sic)46.63/QALY compared to no intervention). In the case of discounting the highest gain in the QALY had patients who were on beta blocker, 23.7 QALY. After the discounting cost-effective strategies were ACE inhibitor (ICER = (sic)253.08/QALY compared to no intervention) and diuretic (ICER = (sic)262.54/QALY compared to no intervention). The results of the study showed that the discounting could change the choice of cost-effective therapeutic strategy Biotechnol. & Biotechnol. Eq. 2011, 25(3), 2555-2558

关键词： ECONOMIC models   SWOT analysis   CORPORATE profits   OPERATING costs   PROFITABILITY   MEDICAL laboratories   FINANCIAL performance   REVENUE  

摘要： Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Nasice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of (sic)470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only (sic)21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to (sic)535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by (sic)384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by impleme

关键词： 总量平衡   财政赤字   调控货币   社会福利  

摘要： 在保持社会总供求平衡和存在社会储蓄的情况下,政府财政支出与政府调控货币投放是不同的。政府调控货币投放是社会经济平稳发展所必不可少的。随着经济技术的发展,作为维护社会经济宏观平衡的财政赤字,不仅是不可避免的,而且也是应该存在的,它是社会发展过程中居民社会福利的重要来源。过于传统地强调避免财政赤字,将直接导致社会需求不足和整个社会经济的衰退。

关键词： 经济模型   一般有理期望模型   线性矩阵不等式  

摘要： 研究了带有不确定性与时变延时的一般线性有理期望经济模型的新指数稳定法则问题,经济系统中的不确定性被描述成为范数有界的。基于LMI的方法得到相关结论。最后,通过数值算例验证了所用方法的可行性。

关键词： grid computing   resource management   economic models  

摘要： Allocating resources in grid computing requires local and external schedulers to communicate in order to achieve an efficient management of the resources themselves. To this end, some economic/market-based models have been introduced in the literature, where users, external schedulers, and local schedulers negotiate to optimize their objectives. In this paper, we propose a tender/contract-net model for the grid resource allocation problem, showing the interactions among the involved actors. The performance of the proposed market-based approach is experimentally compared with a round-robin allocation protocol, a system-centric least-cost allocation approach, and also a market-based approach available from the literature.

关键词： Stochastic simulation   generalized stochastic simulation algorithm   parameterized expectations algorithm   least absolute deviations   linear programming regularization  

摘要： We develop numerically stable and accurate stochastic simulation approaches for solving dynamic economic models. First, instead of standard least-squares approximation methods, we examine a variety of alternatives, including least-squares methods using singular value decomposition and Tikhonov regularization, least-absolute deviations methods, and principal component regression method, all of which are numerically stable and can handle ill-conditioned problems. Second, instead of conventional Monte Carlo integration, we use accurate quadrature and monomial integration. We test our generalized stochastic simulation algorithm (GSSA) in three applications: the standard representative-agent neoclassical growth model, a model with rare disasters, and a multicountry model with hundreds of state variables. GSSA is simple to program, and MATLAB codes are provided.

关键词： Stationarity   Incomplete markets   Open economy   Multiple equilibria  

摘要： A large class of international business cycle models admits multiple locally isolated deterministic steady states, if the elasticity of substitution between traded goods is sufficiently low. I explore the conditions under which such multiplicity occurs and characterize the dynamic properties in the neighborhood of each steady state. Models with standard incomplete markets, portfolio costs, a debt-elastic interest rate, or an overlapping generations framework allow for multiple steady states, if the model features multiple steady states under financial autarchy. If the excess demand for the foreign traded good is increasing in the good's own price in a given steady state, the equilibrium dynamics around this steady state are unbounded. Otherwise, the dynamics are bounded and unique. By contrast, with Uzawa-type preferences, the steady state is always unique and the associated equilibrium dynamics are always bounded and unique. The same results obtain under complete markets. Published by Elsevier B.V.

关键词： sensitivity analysis   Markov model   regression analysis   incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, quality-adjusted life year   selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors  

摘要： Objective: Sensitivity analyses are often performed on only a limited number of variables without justification of the choice of variables and range of each variable. External parties such as health authorities are increasingly requiring submission of the actual model, often in order to test the robustness of the outcomes of the model by performing additional sensitivity analyses. The objective of this work was to develop an alternative method to capture the critical issues of a sensitivity analysis in a health economic model, especially regarding the selection of variables and determining the range for each variable. Apart from external parties such as health authorities, journal readers who want to perform their own sensitivity analysis but do not have access to the model may find this useful. Methods and Results: Statistical methods based on Markov chain modeling and regression analysis, using the framework of the Taylor series expansion around a point, are used to derive an equation for 1-way sensitivity analyses. In particular, equations for costs and effects are being developed, from which the cost-effectiveness ratio is built. The article shows the feasibility of such equations for the execution of 1-way sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: An equation that can be derived in the manner described in this article provides a substantial amount of information. The inclusion of such an equation in a report may increase transparency of the reporting of outcomes of health economic models.

关键词： 计量经济模型   拟合优度   显著性检验   最小二乘法  

摘要： 居民消费在国民收入总量中占有相当大的比重,研究居民消费水平对于把握区域经济的宏观平衡和动态增长具有不可忽视的意义。本文利用国泰安信息技术有限公司开发的CSMAR系列研究数据库的1992——2007年我国城镇居民个人每年平均可支配收入与各项消费性支出的统计数据,建立单方程计量经济模型,利用最小二乘法估计我国城镇居民个人的收入消费函数模型,并对其进行分析、比较和优化,可根据模型估计出城镇居民的可支配收入,具有一定的使用价值。