关键词： Rheumatoid arthritis   Economic   Cost   Effectiveness   Sheffield   Model   DMARDs   Biologics   Simulation  

摘要： The Sheffield RA health economic model has been used in several published cost-effectiveness analyses in both the UK and internationally to evaluate different treatments for patients with RA. This article presents the key methods and assumptions that underpin the model, including justifications for using an individual patient sampling methodology, and why the model has used the HAQ to track disease activity. The article also details how trial and observational data are used in the model to address specific questions. The model has been used to support health policy in both the UK and internationally, although the limited evidence still provides a challenge when using an economic model to determine the cost-effectiveness of RA treatments. The results of analyses using the Sheffield RA model are presented. The limitations of the model are discussed, and improvements are continually required to provide a model that is appropriate to address health economic questions in the future. The Sheffield RA model continues to be used and refined, and allows health economic questions to be answered using a transparent and flexible modelling methodology.

关键词： Low temperature geothermal energy   Decision support system   Geographic information system   Economic indicator  

摘要： This paper presents a computational procedure designed to derive a regional model of the low temperature geothermal potential and its economic exploitability. The model was applied to the Italian Marche region and developed with the support of a Geographic Information System (GIS), which highlights the spatial dependencies in the distribution of geothermic resources. The Low Temperature Geothermal Energy has already gained attention as a renewable energy resource for domestic heating and represents a growing opportunity for investment. Although it is common practice to conduct an accurate evaluation of the geothermal potential and its exploitability on a site during the construction of a single installation, there is not an established practice or guidelines for estimating this resource over large territories. This information could support an institution's ability to conduct regional energy planning and guide private entrepreneurship to meet new economic opportunities. To address these issues, the main contribution of this work is a model that reduces the distance between the physical knowledge of the territory/environment and economic analysis. The model is based on a useful assessment of low temperature geothermal potential obtained from physical parameters on a regional scale, from which a set of economic indicators are calculated to evaluate the actual economic accessibility to the geothermal energy resource. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Economic modelling   Biologic therapies   Rheumatoid arthritis  

摘要： Modelling cost-effectiveness of new drugs for RA has become increasingly prevalent and sophisticated. This situation has arisen largely because regulatory agencies, such as the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, have demanded models from industry and have commissioned independent models. Many technical aspects of health economic models have converged-yet the results of models differ greatly. These differences can be accounted for in large part by differences in assumptions about the nature of patients likely to be treated;likely treatment sequences;likely responses to treatment;likely continuation on drug and likely disease progression, in particular. Such parameters cannot be fixed and evolve with changing practice and are ideally captured by contemporary data. Importantly, data from the local setting to which a health economic problem is applied are necessary, but in the absence of ideal sources, for the many contributions needed, considerable differences in opinion and biases are commonplace. In the final analysis, all models are just that, models, and as such an approximation of real life. Thus, although considerable heat is generated during debates about model parameters, model outputs may just yield sufficient light for regulatory agencies allocating resources.

关键词： Penn-Balassa-Samuelson effect   Intertemporal optimization   External economies   Relative price of nontradables  

摘要： The positive correlation between per capita income and cross-country price levels is called the "Penn-Balassa-Samuelson effect." The most influential explanation of this effect centers around sectoral output productivities as the determinant of the relative price of nontraded goods. The interaction between the change in relative prices and the change in per capita income, the dynamic PBS effect, is less well known. This paper extends the Turnovsky and Sen (1995) model of a small open economy by adding external economies into the production function. The model's dynamics accord well with several features of the empirical data on the dynamic PBS effect. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Toxoplasmosis   Visual impairments   Amniocentesis   Toxoplasma gondii   Birth   United States   Medical risk factors   Serology  

摘要： Objective: To determine a cost-minimizing option for congenital toxoplasmosis in the United States. Methodology/Principal Findings: A decision-analytic and cost-minimization model was constructed to compare monthly maternal serological screening, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French (Paris) protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical practice in the United States and France. One-and two-way sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate robustness of results. Universal monthly maternal screening for congenital toxoplasmosis with follow-up and treatment, following the French protocol, is found to be cost-saving, with savings of $620 per child screened. Results are robust to changes in test costs, value of statistical life, seroprevalence in women of childbearing age, fetal loss due to amniocentesis, and to bivariate analysis of test costs and incidence of primary T. gondii infection in pregnancy. Given the parameters in this model and a maternal screening test cost of $12, screening is cost-saving for rates of congenital infection above 1 per 10,000 live births. If universal testing generates economies of scale in diagnostic tools-lowering test costs to about $2 per test-universal screening is cost-saving at rates of congenital infection well below the lowest reported rates in the United States of 1 per 10,000 live births. Conclusion/Significance: Universal screening according to the French protocol is cost saving for the US population within broad parameters for costs and probabilities.

关键词： Economic models   Tractability   Neuroeconomics   Economic theory of choice   Economic methodology  

摘要： In the recent literature at the interface between economics, biology and neuroscience, several authors argue that by adopting an interdisciplinary approach to the analysis of decision making, economists will be able to construct predictively and explanatorily superior models. However, most economists remain quite reluctant to import biological or neural insights into their account of choice behaviour. In this paper, I reconstruct and critique one of the main arguments by means of which economists attempt to vindicate their conservative position. Furthermore, I develop an alternative defense of the thesis that economists justifiably rely on a methodologically distinctive approach to the modelling of choice behaviour.

关键词： 工程结构   全寿命经济分析   可靠度   经济指标   成本估算  

摘要： 工程结构耐久性问题造成了巨大的经济损失,因此运用全寿命经济分析的方法,平衡工程结构项目的短期效益和长期效益,实现工程项目整个寿命周期总成本的最小化具有重要意义。本文首先介绍了工程结构全寿命经济分析的基本理论和可靠度分析的内容,在此基础上详细分析了工程结构全寿命周期研究中的经济决策指标,最后给出了全寿命周期各主要成本的预测方法和计算模型。

关键词： 经济模型   因素分析   经济效益  

摘要： 目的 根据经济模型分析医院的业务收入中固定资产、劳动力、技术进步各自的贡献率,从而为院领导决策提供依据.方法用生产函数因素分析法对某院2005-2010年业务收入、固定资产、劳动力的发展速度进行分析,进而在固定资产、劳动力的发展速度的基础上,利用索洛方程推出技术进步的发展速度,并进一步计算各自在业务收入中所占份额.结果在业务收入的增长因素中,技术进步因素起了关键作用,从而提示应更进一步加强医院内涵建设,注重人才的发掘培养.结论用经济模型因素分析医院经济效益是非常可行的,提示院领导合理配置有限的医疗资源.

关键词： Mellin变换   欧式期权定价模型   经济模型  

摘要： 使用Mellin变换对推广的欧式期权定价模型进行了求解.充分体现了Mellin变换在求解经济模型中的适用性.

关键词： 宏观经济模型   联立方程组  

摘要： 本文以GDP核算理论为基础,建立以需求导向为主的区域宏观经济需求模型,并应用山东具体数据,对模型中各有关假设条件进行逐步检验,对指标进行平稳性检验,并对模型进行协整性检验;以保证模型的稳定性及模拟的准确性。