关键词： 非洲地区   直接投资   走出去战略   可持续发展   计量分析   经济模型  

摘要： 中国作为一个经济快速发展的发展中国家，一方面积极引进国外直接投资，增强自身的综合国力和国际竞争力，另一方面贯彻落实“走出去”战略，积极推动对外直接投资开发海外市场，不仅为中国的经济可持续发展带来前所未有的机遇，同时也对中国如何提高FDI质量构成了挑战。半个世纪以来，中国和非洲国家的经贸合作力度不断加强，对非直接投资流量也一直呈现上升趋势，并已成为非洲最主要的贸易以及投资合作伙伴国。\n 本文以非洲地区作为研究对象，首先分析中国对非洲直接投资的历史进程以及现状。其次以新古典经济增长理论为基础，通过拓展的CES生产函数估计出影响对非投资效率的重要参数，并着重对参数进行分析；同时本文还应用一定的计量分析方法和经济模型，从空间维度和时间维度对中国在非洲地区直接投资的效率问题加以分析和说明，力图对中国在非地区的对外投资效率的相关问题做出解释，最后根据之前的分析结果对如何提高中国在非的投资效率问题提出相应的对策。

关键词： 产业结构   产业发展   经济模型  

摘要： 经济结构调整是经济发展的永恒主题。在通过相关经济模型对贵州三次产业结构特点与优化发展形势进行分析的基础上,对"十二五"及未来一段时期,进一步优化贵州产业结构与加快产业发展提出合理化建议。

关键词： Model predictive control   Demand response   Economics   Energy   Optimization   Simulation  

摘要： This paper proposes and demonstrates the effectiveness of an economic model predictive control (MPC) technique in reducing energy and demand costs for building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. A simulated multi-zone commercial building equipped with of variable air volume (VAV) cooling system is built in Energyplus. With the introduced Building Controls Virtual Test Bed (BCVTB) as middleware, real-time data exchange between Energyplus and a Matlab controller is realized by sending and receiving sockets. System identification is performed to obtain zone temperature and power models, which are used in the MPC framework. The economic objective function in MPC accounts for the daily electricity costs, which include time-of-use (TOU) energy charge and demand charge. In each time step, a min-max optimization is formulated and converted into a linear programming problem and solved. In a weekly simulation, a pre-cooling effect during off-peak period and a cooling discharge from the building thermal mass during on-peak period can be observed. Cost savings by MPC are estimated by comparing with the baseline and other open-loop control strategies. The effect of several experimental factors in the MPC configuration is investigated and the best scenario is selected for future practical tests. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 股指期货   现货市场   均衡关系   经济模型  

摘要： 本文的主要研究内容是沪深300股指期货推出对现货市场的影响分析。股指期货自1982年在美国堪萨斯期货交易所首次推出，迄今已有将近30年的历史，作为一种风险管理工具，它拥有巨大的应用价值，也是金融市场上最为重要的衍生产品之一。2010年4月16日，我国正式推出以沪深300股票价格指数为标的的沪深300股指期货交易。这是我国证券市场一次革命，它对对冲股市系统风险、保护投资者利益，促进股价的合理波动、充分发挥经济晴雨表的作用，促进股票市场规范发展、完善我国资本市场的体系与功能具有重要作用。随之而来，股指期货的推出也带来了一些质疑:股指期货是否会给市场带来过度投机，引起市场过度波动;我国当前股指期货是否具备价格发现功能，期货市场与现货市场是否存在价格引导关系等。因此，迫切的需要对沪深300股票指数的推出对市场的影响意义进行研究。此项课题不仅可以揭示我国股票市场与现货市场的影响关系，完善国内外对金融市场创新产品市场影响的理论研究，还可以对市场参与者及监管部门提供有价值的市场信息。这对于正确认识我国股指期货市场具有重要的理论价值和现实意义，也是本文的目的所在。\n 本文共有五个部分，第一章是绪论，主要介绍了文章的选题背景、研究意义、国内外相关文献回顾，文章的研究思路和方法，以及文章的创新和难点。\n 第二章是相关基础理论介绍，主要包括世界金融史上股指期货产生和发展的历史、股指期货的相关特点和功能，沪深300股指期货合约的发展历程，合约的主要内容和特点以及其对中国证券市场的独特意义。\n 第三章从理论上并结合图表和数据对股指期货的推出对我国A股市场的影响做了一般性研究。主要从以下几方面对沪深300推出带给现货市场的冲击做了分析:第一，沪深300股指期货的推出在短期内改变了股票价格走势，但在长期内并无影响;第二，沪深300股指期货的推出对现货市场成交量有一定比例的促进作用。第三，沪深300股指期货的推出加大了股票指数成分股和非成分股之间的差异。第四，沪深300股指期货的推出改变了投资者的结构，提升了机构投资者所占的比例。第五，沪深300股指期货的推出增加了投资者对投资品种的选择，改变了投资者的投资策略。\n 第四章从实证方面对沪深300股指期货推出的股市的影响做了具体定量分析。针对股指期货和现货价格发现功能的研究，做了以下:首先，运用Johansen协整检验对二者之间的关系进行分析，发现二者之间存在长期的均衡关系。其次，建立向量误差修正模型，量化两个变量之间的具体的相关关系，研究结果发现，当受到外部冲击时，误差修正项将以0.0863的调整力度使期货价格回归原有趋势，以0.0228的调整力度使现货价格回归原有趋势，期货价格调整速度更快。最后，为了对二者之间的引导幅度做进一步的量化，文章运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解对其进行了分析。研究结果发现，当期货市场收到一个冲击时，将会在第六分钟传达到现货市场，现货市场决定期货市场的长期走势，但受到短期冲击时，传递速度和传递幅度则较为微弱，也即期货市场价格走势领先于现货市场。针对沪深300推出之后现货市场价格波动率的变化，为了更好的衡量股指期货推出对现货市场波动率的变动，本文将现货市场价格走势分为股指期货上市前一年和股指期货上市后一年;同时，考虑到金融市场具有杠杆效应，也即市场受到正的冲击和负的冲击时价格幅度不同，本文采用了非对称的GARCH模型-TGARCH模型对此进行了研究。结果表明沪深300股指期货上市后，现货市场股票价格波动幅度明显减小。\n 第五章对本文的研究内容进行了总结，主要有以下结论:\n 第一，沪深300股指期货的推出使得股票市场短期波动趋势发生了变化。沪深300股指期货推出前一段时间由于机构投资者的炒作使得现货市场价格出现了短期上涨，股指期货正式交易后市场的刺激逐渐减少，持有大量股票的机构投资者持续在较高位卖出，现货市场出现了短期的下跌趋势。但是，在长期中股指期货的推出并未改变现货市场的走势。\n 第二，股指期货推出增加了现货市场的交易量。首先，新的投资品种以及新的投资方式的出现必然会吸引大量投资者进行交易。其次，股指期货的出现吸引了一部分投机者进行交易，投机者对资产一般短期持有，在一定程度上增加了股票市场的交易量。总股本不变的情况下，交易量的增加反映了股票市场流动性的增加。\n 第三，沪深300股指期货的推出使得作为沪深300股指期货的股票价格成分股，特别是大盘蓝筹股受到投资者更大的关注。股价指数成分股的流动性和收益率都有所增长。\n 第四，股指期货推出后，投资者投资策略也发生了变化。投资者投资策略的选择更为丰富。\n 第五，股指期货对现货市场具有价格发现功能，股指期货的推出使得我国股票市场价格波动更为平稳，股票市场经济晴雨表的作

关键词： 美元本位制   全球经济失衡现象   国际货币体系   宏观经济模型  

摘要： 当前的全球经济失衡是国际金融领域的一个热点问题，失衡的一端体现为美国经常账户从二十世纪八十年代开始出现的长期的巨额逆差，另一端体现为新兴市场国家及海湾石油出口国的经常账户持续出现高额顺差。经常账户无论出现长期巨额顺差还是长期巨额逆差都会对一国经济的长远、健康发展非常不利。由于贸易收支占经常账户的比重通常较大，所以一般人们认为，贸易收支的不平衡是导致经常账户失衡的主因，传统理论也认为汇率是影响贸易收支的重要因素之一，通过汇率调节可以有效调整经常项目。但是随着经济全球化的不断发展，对经常账户的影响因素也日趋复杂。虽然针对经常账户的不平衡的争论目前还主要集中在贸易摩擦和相关币值，但是对这种失衡的研究显然已经不能再停留在传统理论阶段了。究竟是什么原因造成了美国经常账户赤字，其他发展中国家的经常项目盈余，对这个问题目前有几种解答，本文在回顾已有的研究成果的同时，对各种观点分类进行了整理和评述，提出并论证了本篇论文的主要观点，即美元本位制是造成全球经济失衡的主要原因。\n 通过观察历史上美元本位制的形成和演变，可以发现这一制度的存在有一定的合理性。一方面是因为美元本位制本身具有规模经济的垄断性，一旦形成就有自我延续的惯性;另一方面是因为国际货币体系发展而传承的结果，其在现阶段便利了全球经济的发展。而且，美元在全球货币体系的统治地位一旦形成后，美国在与外围世界的博弈时，具有不对称优势，美国有足够的能力和动力去制造失衡。通过回顾历史上的几次全球经济失衡，可以发现美元本位制也有相应的几次调整过程，特别是在全球经济出现比较明显的失衡时，美元本位制是造成失衡的重要原因，同时也因失衡的出现在进行自我调整。\n 在第四章本文通过对特里芬难题的重新探讨，从美国优先考虑内部均衡，忽视外部均衡的角度论述了美元本位制对全球经济失衡的推动作用。并且说明了美国面临特里芬两难时做出的政策选择，对全球经济失衡的影响主要通过发行过量货币产生。然后从美国经常账户的构成入手，采用美元货币发行量，财政赤字，居民消费和投资状况，汇率等变量，利用宏观经济模型对美国经常项目进行了计量分析。结果表明，美国长期以来的不受约束的宽松货币政策对加剧美国经常账户逆差的作用非常明显，美国的财政赤字对经常账户逆差也有一定的加剧作用，而美元汇率对美国经常账户的实际影响却比较有限。文章的最后从全球需求结构调整和改革国际货币体系两个方面出发，提出调节美国经常账户赤字的建议。如果要从根本上调节全球经济失衡，必须调整美元本位制，推动国际货币体系最终走向超主权货币体系。

关键词： Policy reform   Road pricing   Majority voting  

摘要： In this paper, we use a simple majority voting model to study the introduction of urban congestion tolls. The model allows for different types of uncertainty and considers different uses of the toll revenues. The following results are obtained. First, we show that individual uncertainty with respect to modal substitution costs may imply that a majority votes against road pricing ex ante, although a majority would have been in favor after its introduction ex post. Moreover, if a majority is against road pricing ex ante, there will also be no majority for organizing an experiment that would take away the individual uncertainty. Second, political uncertainty with respect to the use of the revenues corroborates the finding that ex ante more voters will be against the introduction of tolls. Third, both types of uncertainty suggest that fewer voters are against road pricing when toll revenues are used to subsidize public transport than when they are redistributed to all voters. Importantly, the results of this paper are consistent with a number of recent empirical observations on efforts to introduce road pricing, including the systematic rejection of road pricing in referenda, the more favorable attitudes towards road pricing after than before its introduction, and tying the toll revenues to support public transport. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： Discretionary monetary policy   Friedman rule   Time consistency problem   Sustainable policy  

摘要： This paper illustrates that the presence of a money demand distortion in an otherwise standard new Keynesian open economy model results in multiple discretionary equilibria that arise in the form of expectations traps. If private sector inflation expectations become sufficiently unanchored, the model predicts that a monetary authority can easily be trapped into validating these expectations, thereby pushing the economy to a lower welfare equilibrium. Given the ease with which expectation traps arise in the presence of international linkages, the main result presented here suggests that maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations is a critically important policy goal for central banks in open economies.

关键词： AquaCrop   Irrigation management   Crop planning   Decision support system   Economic optimization   Deficit irrigation  

摘要： Water resources used in irrigated agriculture are increasingly scarce, particularly in many countries where irrigation has undergone recent expansion. To optimize the limited resources available, optimization models provide useful tools for technical and economic analyses. One of the key inputs of these models is the yield response to water which is often simulated with empirical water production functions. At present, dynamic crop simulation models, such as AquaCrop (Steduto et al., 2009) offer alternative predictions of crop responses to different irrigation strategies as inputs to economic optimization. A model at farm scale was developed and applied to an area in South-western Spain to assist farmers in pre-season decision making on cropping patterns and on irrigation strategies. Yield predictions were obtained from the AquaCrop model which was validated for four different crops. The model simulated the impact on farm income of: (a) irrigation water constraints;(b) variations in agricultural policies;(c) changes in product and water prices;and, (d) variations in the communication to farmers of the specific level of irrigation water allocation. The applications of the models to the study area showed that currently, the changes in cropping patterns induced by the agricultural policy will encourage water savings more than an increase in water prices. Under water restrictions, the best strategy combines planting of low water use crops in part of the area to release water to grow more profitable crops with greater water needs. The model predicted a strong negative impact on farm income of delaying a decision on the level of seasonal water allocation by the water authority, reaching up to 300 ha(-1) in the case of the study area. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Chinese setting   cost-effectiveness   cost-utility   insulin detemir  

摘要： Objectives: To evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of switching from insulin glargine (IGla) to insulin detemir (IDet) in patients with type 2 diabetes in the setting of Chinese secondary and tertiary hospitals. Methods: A published and validated computer simulation model of diabetes (the Center for Outcomes Research model) was used to make the long-term (30 years) projection of health economic outcomes. Patient demographic information and clinical end points were derived from a subgroup analysis of the Predictable Results and Experience in Diabetes through Intensification and Control to Target: an International Variability Evaluation (PREDICTIVE) study. Baseline risk factors and racial characteristic data were obtained from Chinese cohort studies. The diabetes management and complications costs were obtained from Chinese published data and adjusted to 2010 values by using the Chinese consumer price index. An annual discounting rate of 3% was used for both health and cost outcomes, and one-way sensitivities analysis was performed, which illustrated that the results were robust. Results: Conversion to IDet from IGla was projected to improve patient life expectancy by 0.06 year and 0.48 quality-adjusted life-years. Drug costs and management costs of diabetes mellitus were increased by US$368 (US$17,466 vs. US$17,097) and US$31 (US$5464 vs. US$5433), respectively. However, the costs of complications, including cerebrovascular disease, renal complications, ulcer/amputation/neuropathy, eye complications, and hypoglycemia events, were reduced by US$ 819 (US$21,294 vs. US$22,114), resulting in a total direct medical cost saving of US$420 when converting to IDet. Conclusions: Conversion to IDet from an IGla regimen improved life expectancy and was a cost-saving treatment approach in a Chinese setting.

关键词： Keeping up with the Joneses   Status   Positional good  

摘要： Based on sociologists' findings, it is more likely that middle-status people are "keeping up with the Joneses" while both the highest-status and lowest-status people are "running away from the Joneses". Existing economic models fail to reproduce this inverted-U shaped (IUS) curve. In my model, response to the Joneses is endogenized and is related to one's status position. Under some reasonable assumptions, an IUS pattern will appear. A comparison with a sociological explanation of the same phenomenon and further implications will also be discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.