关键词： 国内旅游收入   OLS参数估计   经济分析  

摘要： 通过建立计量经济模型,对我国国内旅游收入进行实证分析,找出了影响国内旅游收入的诸多因素。研究结果表明,人均国内生产总值、旅游人均花费是影响国内旅游收入的显著性因素。基于模型结果对模型进行分析评价。

关键词： economic model predictive control   nonlinear process systems   synchronous measurements   asynchronous and delayed measurements   uncertain variables  

摘要： In this work, we develop model predictive control (MPC) designs, which are capable of optimizing closed-loop performance with respect to general economic considerations for a broad class of nonlinear process systems. Specifically, in the proposed designs, the economic MPC optimizes a cost function, which is related directly to desired economic considerations and is not necessarily dependent on a steady-stateunlike conventional MPC designs. First, we consider nonlinear systems with synchronous measurement sampling and uncertain variables. The proposed economic MPC is designed via Lyapunov-based techniques and has two different operation modes. The first operation mode corresponds to the period in which the cost function should be optimized (e.g., normal production period);and in this operation mode, the MPC maintains the closed-loop system state within a predefined stability region and optimizes the cost function to its maximum extent. The second operation mode corresponds to operation in which the system is driven by the economic MPC to an appropriate steady-state. In this operation mode, suitable Lyapunov-based constraints are incorporated in the economic MPC design to guarantee that the closed-loop system state is always bounded in the predefined stability region and is ultimately bounded in a small region containing the origin. Subsequently, we extend the results to nonlinear systems subject to asynchronous and delayed measurements and uncertain variables. Under the assumptions that there exist an upper bound on the interval between two consecutive asynchronous measurements and an upper bound on the maximum measurement delay, an economic MPC design which takes explicitly into account asynchronous and delayed measurements and enforces closed-loop stability is proposed. All the proposed economic MPC designs are illustrated through a chemical process example and their performance and robustness are evaluated through simulations. (c) 2011 American Institute of Chemic

关键词： 收入分配改革   新加坡国立大学   宏观经济模型   2008年   厦门大学   初次分配   居民收入   贫富差距  

摘要： 据厦门大学、新加坡国立大学等机构日前联合发布的2012中国季度宏观经济模型报告显示，1992年至2008年，居民收入在我国初次分配和再分配中的占比均大幅减少，贫富差距进一步加大，而政府成为分配环节最大的受益者。

关键词： 劳动收入份额   二元经济模型   无限劳动供给   就业压力  

摘要： 新古典经济学的要素分配理论以劳动力是稀缺资源作为其前提假设,与我国二元经济条件下的现实情况存在较大差距,因而在分析我国劳动收入份额下降时解释力不足。文章修正了新古典经济学的劳动力稀缺要素假定,基于劳动力无限供给假定的二元经济模型和中国数据表现出的异质性特征,建立了一个分析二元经济中劳动收入份额影响因素的理论框架,并运用该理论框架解释了中国劳动收入份额趋降的原因,提出促进劳动密集型技术进步、提高人力资本禀赋、审慎干预劳动市场等方面的政策建议。

关键词： 汽车拥有量   线性回归   经济模型   评价  

摘要： 根据近二十年来国内多项经济指标,运用逐步线性回归的方法建立了民用汽车拥有量的计量经济模型,并对模型进行评价和检验。利用该模型可以对今后的民用汽车拥有量进行理论预测,为发展规划提供有依据的理论指导。

关键词： 经济模型   IT时代   服务经济时代   IT产业   规模经济   经济学概念   IT服务   商业平台  

摘要： 作为自互联网革命以来IT产业最深刻的变革，云计算真正实现了IT服务的透明化，它将IT的形态变得更加动态、高效、灵活、随需，不仅带来成本与速度上的优势，还带来了不同的效能模式和经济模型，成为推动产业绿色发展的重要引擎和21世纪新的商业平台。通过对全球超大规模数据中心的互联与管理，云计算使“数据交换”有望成为继“商品交换”、“资本交换”之后的第三类经济模式——“云经济”。云经济不仅变革了IT资源的使用模式，更重要的是带来了“端对端”的规模经济、绿色经济以及长尾经济，重塑了经济学概念，开启了全新的业务形态，引领我们迈向全新的服务经济时代。

关键词： Beef cattle   Bio-economic model   Economic values   Functional traits   Production traits  

摘要： A deterministic bio-economic model was developed to estimate marginal economic values for production and functional traits for intensive (Continental) and extensive (British) breed groups in their typical production systems, and to estimate the relative importance of thee two groups of traits. The model simulates the economic result of one purebred beef suckler cow and her progeny of each breed group on the basis of their lifetime production. The level of performance of the cow and progeny was set to the population means of traits in the respective breed group. Relative economic values (REV, in percentage) were estimated for 14 traits, seven production and seven functional traits. The REV for the intensive and extensive breed groups, respectively, were: herd life of cow;39 and 29%, age at first calving;6 and 4%, calving interval;4 and 3%, calving difficulty;2 and 3%, carcass weight;24 and 29%, carcass conformation;5 and 5%, carcass fatness;2 and 5%, growth rate from birth to 200 days;4 and 6%, growth rate from 200 days to 365 days;6 and 9% and growth rate from 365 days to slaughter;7 and 7%. The value of stillbirth, twinning frequency, limb and claw disorders and birth weight were all close to zero in both breed groups. Functional traits were almost as important is the production traits for both breed groups;however, functional traits were even more important for the intensive breed group (51 vs. 39%). The results suggest that functional traits are important traits to include, regardless of breed, when developing breeding objectives for beef cattle, and should to a much larger extent than at present, be recorded in breeding schemes for beef cattle. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： economic crisis   economic cycle.   economic model   economic theory   globalization  

摘要： The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ISBN: (纸本)9787564213046

关键词： Adult   Africa/epidemiology   Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use   Chemoprevention/methods   Cost-Benefit Analysis   Data Interpretation, Statistical   HIV Infections/complications   HIV Infections/drug therapy   HIV Infections/economics   HIV Infections/epidemiology   HIV-1/drug effects   HIV-1/physiology   Humans   Information Storage and Retrieval/statistics & numerical data   Isoniazid/therapeutic use   Models, Economic   Tuberculosis/prevention & control  

摘要： Background: Tuberculosis (TB) accounts of much of the morbidity and mortality associated with HIV. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different strategies to actively screen for TB disease in HIV positive individuals, where isoniazid preventative therapy (IPT) is given to those screening negative, and use value of information analysis (VOI) to identify future research priorities. Methodology/Principal Findings: We built an individual sampling model to investigate the costs (2010 US Dollars) and consequences of screening for TB, and providing TB treatment or IPT in adults testing HIV positive in Sub-Saharan Africa. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess performance of the nine different TB screening strategies evaluated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to incorporate decision uncertainty, and expected value of perfect information for the entire model and for groups of parameters was calculated. Screening all HIV infected individuals with sputum microscopy was the least costly strategy, with other strategies not cost-effective at WHO recommended thresholds. Screening those with TB symptoms with sputum microscopy and CXR would be cost-effective at a threshold ICER of $7,800 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), but associated with significant uncertainty. VOI analysis suggests further information would be of value. Conclusions/Significance: Resource-constrained countries in sub-Saharan Africa wishing to scale up TB preventative services in their HIV infected populations should consider expanding laboratory facilities to enable increased screening for TB with sputum microscopy, whilst improved estimates of the TB prevalence in the population to be screened are needed, as it may influence the optimal strategy.