ISBN: (纸本)9787566304773

关键词： Chaotic maps   Inverse limits   Non-invertible economic dynamics   Overlapping generations model   Adaptive adjustment cobweb model   Utility functions   Invariant measures   Homoclinic orbits   Entropy  

摘要： In this paper, we study the dynamics and ergodic theory of certain economic models which are implicitly defined. We consider 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional overlapping generations models, a cash-in-advance model, heterogeneous markets and a cobweb model with adaptive adjustment. We consider the inverse limit spaces of certain chaotic invariant fractal sets and their metric, ergodic and stability properties. The inverse limits give the set of intertemporal perfect foresight equilibria for the economic problem considered. First we show that the inverse limits of these models are stable under perturbations. We then employ utility functions on inverse limits in our case. We give two ways to rank such utility functions. First, when perturbing certain dynamical systems, we rank utility functions in terms of their average values with respect to invariant probability measures on inverse limits, especially with respect to measures of maximal entropy. For families of certain unimodal maps we can adjust both the discount factor and the system parameters in order to obtain maximal average value of the utility. The second way to rank utility functions (for more general maps on hyperbolic sets) will be to use equilibrium measures of these utility functions on inverse limits;they optimize average values of utility functions while at the same time keeping the disorder in the system as low as possible in the long run. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： 钨工业   模型   生态化   低碳经济   污染物排放   减量化  

摘要： 钨工业还存在着总能耗高,污染物(废渣、废水、废气)排放量多、循环综合利用难等突出问题.本文根据生态学食物网链原理,将钨产业链分为生产者、消费者和分解者三个基本组成部分进行链接,构建新型的钨产业链生态化低碳模型,对废水、废气和废渣的产生原因进行重点分析,并运用生态链接的方法解决这些问题.这对钨工业科学发展有着重要意义.

关键词： Constrained optimization   Value function   Differentiability   Envelope theorem   Duality theory  

摘要： In this paper we provide some sufficient conditions for the differentiability of the value function in a class of infinite-horizon continuous-time models of convex optimization arising in economics. We dispense with the assumption of interior optimal paths. This assumption is quite unnatural in constrained optimization, and is usually hard to check in applications. The differentiability of the value function is used to prove Bellman's equation as well as the existence and continuity of the optimal feedback policy. We also establish the uniqueness of the vector of dual variables. These results become useful for the characterization and computation of optimal solutions. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： 宏观计量经济模型   向量自回归   动态随机一般均衡  

摘要： 本文对VAR宏观计量经济模型的拓展和应用进行综述和总结。VAR模型在批判中逐步向结构式、非线性、空间计量以及利用贝叶斯统计推断技术的方向演变。进入21世纪之后,基于动态随机一般均衡的DSGE-VAR模型、时变参数的TVP-VAR模型以及处理大规模变量的FAVAR模型等成为宏观计量经济分析的前沿。本文最后指出该类模型在运用中应注意的问题。

关键词： 水路运输   发船间隔决策   班轮运营成本   经济模型   盈利航速   装卸效率  

摘要： 为寻求一定运输需求和运营条件下,航线上最优的集装箱班轮运输发船间隔及相关决策量,使资金极为密集的航运业运行更优,以一定营运期内航线上班轮运营利润为目标,以船舶载重能力、各类箱型箱位数和港口装卸效率为约束建立班轮运营经济模型.根据班轮航线各港间各类箱型箱量的关系,详细研究运营系统中船舶资本成本、营运成本,以及包括燃料费、装卸费、靠泊费、港口使用费、船员津贴的航次变动成本的解析式,提出调和平均方法的港口综合装卸效率,以及各航段保留一定燃油量、交货时实现利润的条件下盈利航速的解,兼顾实现班轮各航段船天利润和运营总利润两方面最优.结合隐函数求导和函数极值方法求出模型决策变量的最优解,并以实例说明模型的有效性.

关键词： 经济差异   空间计量经济模型   兰新铁路辐射带   成因分析  

摘要： 利用空间分析法确定兰新铁路辐射带的辐射范围,以县级行政单元为基本研究单元,综合运用SPSS、GeoDA和ARCGIS分析区域经济差异后发现:在兰新铁路辐射带内,兰州市市辖区、乌鲁木齐市市辖区、嘉峪关市、哈密市、阿拉善左旗的经济发展水平明显比其它地区高,甘肃段内区域经济差异较大,新疆段内区域经济差异较小;区域经济空间集聚特征明显;利用空间计量经济模型分析区域经济差异成因可知,财政收入对经济发展具有明显的负面影响,市场规模、经济结构、工业化、虚拟变量对经济发展具有明显的促进作用,其中虚拟变量与经济发展水平的回归系数最大,说明农村城市化对经济发展的促进作用最大。区域投资水平对经济发展影响不明显。

关键词： Workplace mobbing   Stackelberg differential game   Economic theory  

摘要： Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that employs a Stackelberg differential game in order to analyze the interaction between a university administrator (or administrators) and a professor who is being "mobbed" by university administration, perhaps for political reasons related to the professor's use of academic freedom and/or tenure to publicly criticize the actions of university officials. One of the model's implications is that it is optimal for the professor to increase his or her research in order to increase job mobility when subjected to downward mobbing, and that the university administration may succeed in pushing out the tenured professor if the administration's mobbing actions are greater than a combination of professor's optimal salary and threshold quitting rate. In the long run, however, the institution and the administrator may lose if the professor leaves and his replacements do not keep up the research productivity. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Hopf bifurcation   Harvesting   Stability   Differential-algebraic system  

摘要： In this paper, we investigate Hopf bifurcation and center stability of a predator-prey biological economic model. By employing the local parameterization method, Hopf bifurcation theory and the formal series method, we obtain some testable results on these issues. The economic profit is chosen as a positive bifurcation parameter here. It shows that a phenomenon of Hopf bifurcation occurs as the economic profit increases beyond a certain threshold. Besides, we also find that the center of the biological economic model is always unstable. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the effectiveness of our results. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： cost effectiveness   model   school   sexually transmitted infection  

摘要： Objectives: Reducing sexually transmitted infections (STI) and teenage pregnancy through effective health education is a high priority for health policy. Behavioral interventions which teach skills to practice safer sex may reduce the incidence of STIs. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of school-based behavioral interventions in young people. Methods: We developed an economic model to estimate the total number of STI cases averted, consequent gain in health related quality of life (HRQoL) and savings in medical costs, based on changes in sexual behavior. The parameters for the model were derived from a systematic literature search on the intervention effectiveness, epidemiology of STIs, sexual behavior and lifestyles, HRQoL and health service costs. Results: The costs of providing teacher-led and peer-led behavioral interventions were sic5.16 and sic18 per pupil, respectively. For a cohort of 1000 boys and 1000 girls aged 15 years, the model estimated that the behavioral interventions would avert two STI cases and save 0.35 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Compared to standard education, the incremental cost-effectiveness of the teacher-led and peer-led interventions was sic24,268 and sic96,938 per QALY gained, respectively. Conclusions: School-based behavioral interventions which provide information and teach young people sexual health skills can bring about improvements in knowledge and increased self-efficacy, though these may be limited in terms of impact on sexual behavior. There was uncertainty around the results due to the limited effect of the intervention on behavioral outcomes and paucity of data for other input parameters.