关键词： 水产品价格   双对数模型   计量经济  

摘要： 为探究各影响因素对水产品需求量的影响程度,对影响中国水产品消费需求量的因素进行定性分析。用影响水产品需求量的主要因素,建立双对数模型应使用Eviews对各影响因素进行定量的分析。模型结果表明:对水产品需求量有明显影响作用的因素包括,城镇居民人均可支配收入、水产品自身的价格,其中城镇居民人均可支配收入水平与水产品需求量呈正相关,水产品自身价格和水产品需求量呈负相关。

关键词： 区域创新   宏观计量经济模型   协整模型  

摘要： 本文通过在中国小型宏观计量协整模型中嵌入区域创新生产函数从而将区域技术创新活动与中国宏观经济活动相联系的区域-宏观经济分析模型,研究了中国八大区域研发投入对中国宏观经济的影响。模拟分析表明,中国八大区域研发投入增加有利于中国城市化发展,有利于中国居民收入增加,有利于国家经济增长;在所考虑的八大宏观经济变量中,中国区域研发投入增加对国内生产总值的影响最大,对城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入和农村居民家庭人均纯收入的影响分别排在第二和第三位。

关键词： 模型论   广义生物经济模型   奇异诱导分岔   状态反馈控制器   生物种群  

摘要： 利用微分代数方程、生态和经济学理论研究了广义生物经济模型。创建有关生物种群的模型,并研究其经济利润(参数)在临界形态下,该模型在平稳点四周稳定性的状况,以及研究该类生物经济模型系统在经济利润临界形态下出现的奇异诱导分岔现象。将真实的数据带入到该经济模型的控制模型中,并通过简单的数学计算来说明该控制器是正确的。

关键词： BOOKS -- Reviews   BIOECONOMICS   AGRICULTURAL systems   FICTION  

关键词： ECONOMIC models   COBB-Douglas production function   BOUNDARY value problems   MAXIMUM principles (Mathematics)   DIFFERENTIAL equations  

摘要： We consider a resource distribution problem on a finite time interval with a terminal functional for a two-sector economic model with a two-factor Cobb-Douglas production function with distinct amortization factors. The problem can be reduced to a canonical form by scaling the state variables and time. We prove the optimality of an extremal solution constructed with the use of the maximum principle. For the case in which the initial state of the plant lies above the singular ray, the solution of the boundary value problem of the maximum principle is presented in closed form. DOI: 10.1134/S0012266112120075

关键词： Non-renewable resources   Optimal control   Non-parametric estimation   Oil production  

摘要： In this paper we present empirical facts on oil exploitation and a model that can replicate some of these facts. In particular, we show that the time path of the oil price, on the one hand, and the extraction rate, on the other hand, seem to follow a U-shaped and an inverted U-shaped relationship, respectively, which is confirmed by simple non-parametric estimations. Next, we present a theoretical model where a monopolistic resource owner maximizes inter-temporal profits from exploiting a non-renewable resource where the price of the resource depends on the extraction rate and on cumulated past extraction. The resource is finite and only a part of the resource is known while the rest has not yet been discovered. The analysis of that model demonstrates that the extraction rate and the price of the resource show the empirically observed pattern if the stock of the initially known resource is small.

摘要： Background Health economic evaluation attempts to provide a rational and coherent framework to help policy makers to decide which health interventions to fund by comparing the differences in costs and outcomes between alternative options. Mathematical models are used to simplify complex realities; as such, there are always uncertainties associated with the model structure and inputs, and hence with the model results. It is thus important to be able to describe and justify the model structure and inputs used. The structural development of public health economic models is currently based on ad hoc non-transparent methods that are highly dependent on the modeller. We present a conceptual modelling framework to guide modellers when developing the structure of these models. Methods Two scientific literature reviews and qualitative research informed the framework. The reviews explored key challenges in public health economic modelling and conceptual modelling frameworks within the broader literature. They were undertaken with a systematic, iterative search method in accordance with UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence technical support document guidance, including citation, reference, and key author searching within Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science. The qualitative research aimed to understand modellers' experiences with developing model structures and their views about the benefits and barriers of the use of a conceptual modelling framework. This involved a three-phase approach: tracking of the development of a Public Health economic model by in-depth interviews with the two modellers involved, and attendance at meetings between the project team and stakeholders, during which notes were made on the model development process; systematic analysis of our own notes from a previous public health economic project; and arrangement of a focus group with public health modellers from five different centres within the UK, identified purposively through releva

关键词： 宏观经济模型   季度预测   研制  

摘要： 主要以新凯恩斯主义的宏观经济理论为指导,结合中国的现实宏观经济环境,借鉴国内外先进的季度宏观经济模型的建模经验,建立了一个基于需求导向的小型中国季度宏观经济模型,并应用模型在预测期内进行了短期经济预测,取得了较好的效果。

关键词： jobs crisis   low-wage policy   Alan Greenspan   Nairu   export-led growth   corporate governance  

摘要： In contrast to the general biases of orthodox economists, the jobs crisis in America is not inevitable or natural-and more important, does not contribute to more economic efficiency through lower wages or more productivity. It is the result of deliberate political policy choices the nation has made at least since the early 1980s, when productivity was rising on a secular basis at a slow rate. Also, the policy choices were made before the rise of very low-wage emerging markets like China's. In sum, there has been a low-wage, high-unemployment policy regime in the rich world, and especially in the United States, for a generation.

关键词： Cost-effectiveness   Modelling   Patient-compliance  

摘要： Economic models are developed to provide decision makers with information related to the real-world effectiveness of therapeutics, screening and diagnostic regimens. Although compliance with these regimens often has a significant impact on real-world clinical outcomes and costs, compliance and persistence have historically been addressed in a relatively superficial fashion in economic models. In this review, we present a discussion of the current state of economic modelling as it relates to the consideration of compliance and persistence. We discuss the challenges associated with the inclusion of compliance and persistence in economic models and provide an in-depth review of recent modelling literature that considers compliance or persistence, including a brief summary of previous reviews on this topic and a survey of published models from 2005 to 2012. We review the recent literature in detail, providing a therapeutic-area-specific discussion of the approaches and conclusions drawn from the inclusion of compliance or persistence in economic models. In virtually all publications, variation of model parameters related to compliance and persistence was shown to have a significant impact on predictions of economic outcomes. Growing recognition of the importance of compliance and persistence in the context of economic evaluations has led to an increasing number of economic models that consider these factors, as well as the use of more sophisticated modelling techniques such as individual simulations that provide an avenue for more rigorous consideration of compliance and persistence than is possible with more traditional methods. However, we note areas of continuing concern cited by previous reviews, including inconsistent definitions, documentation and tenuous assumptions required to estimate the effect of compliance and persistence. Finally, we discuss potential means to surmount these challenges via more focused efforts to collect compliance and persistence data.