关键词： Riparian benefit functions   Non-traditional water uses   River impoundment   Principle of equal marginal utility   Inverse techniques   Sustainable flow releases   Small-hydropower  

摘要： We propose a theoretical river modeling framework for generating variable flow patterns in diverted-streams (i.e., no reservoir). Using a simple economic model and the principle of equal marginal utility in an inverse fashion we first quantify the benefit of the water that goes to the environment in relation to that of the anthropic activity. Then, we obtain exact expressions for optimal water allocation rules between the two competing uses, as well as the related statistical distributions. These rules are applied using both synthetic and observed streamflow data, to demonstrate that this approach may be useful in 1) generating more natural flow patterns in the river reach downstream of the diversion, thus reducing the ecodeficit;2) obtaining a more enlightened economic interpretation of Minimum Flow Release (MFR) strategies, and;3) comparing the long-term costs and benefits of variable versus MFR policies and showing the greater ecological sustainability of this new approach. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 税改   宏观经济模型   中国宏观经济   财税体制改革   厦门大学   发布会   增值税   营业  

摘要： 2月23日，厦门大学和经济参考报社联合举办“2013年中国宏观经济高层研讨会暨中国季度宏观经济模型春季预测发布会”。综合多位学者在会上就财税体制改革发表的意见，2013年，营业税改增值税扩围很可能成为突破口，2014年，财税体制改革有望全面启动。

关键词： 灾害经济学   损失评估   生命价值   经济模型  

摘要： 灾害经济思想可以追溯到19世纪中叶。1970年代后,灾害经济学的研究领域不断扩大,主要集中在灾害损失评估方法、灾害经济影响模型、生命价值评估和灾害保险与灾害风险证券化等方面。文章提出灾害经济学的研究框架,灾害经济学的主要内容包括灾害损失评估、减灾理论、灾害短期经济影响、灾害与长期经济增长、生命价值评估、灾害风险管理和灾后恢复重建理论。

关键词： M-F模型   开放宏观经济模型   外部冲击   美元无限供给弹性  

摘要： 从美元的特殊地位及布雷顿森林体系崩溃后美国货币政策的基本趋向可以看出,美元供给具有无限弹性的特征。本文在对M-F模型评价的基础上,依据市场分类的完全性,模型结构的一致性提出了开放经济条件下IS-LM的扩展模型,利用扩展模型探讨了外部冲击和涉外冲击对国家经济运行的影响,进而讨论了美元无限供给弹性的冲击效应:同时,结合我国宏观经济现实,利用加入WTO前后两阶段的样本数据,对我国经济受外部冲击的运行状况进行了实证分析,并结合实证结论论述了美元无限供给弹性对我国经济运行所带来的挑战,以及应对这些挑战的对策建议。

关键词： Hopf分支   局部稳定性   微分代数系统   Holling   Ⅲ型功能反应函数  

摘要： 分析了一类考虑带HollingⅢ型功能反应函数和食饵收获的捕食-食饵生态经济系统.运用微分代数系统理论和Hopf分支理论研究了一类系统的Hopf分支.考虑了一个由于经济因素得到的微分代数方程而不是以前所研究的普通捕食-食饵模型的动力学行为.其中经济利润是作为一个正的分支参数给出的.当经济利润增大到某一个阈值时,会出现Hopf分支.

关键词： Equilibrium multiplicity   Incomplete markets   Open economy  

摘要： This paper derives analytical results for the relationship between the slope of the excess, demand function and the dynamic properties around a deterministic steady state in a two country model. In models that admit multiple steady states, the sign of the slope of the excess demand function is positive for some steady states and negative for others. To obtain stationarity of the net foreign asset position under incomplete financial markets I introduce the stationary inducing devices analyzed in Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2003) and Ghironi (2006). For portfolio costs, a debt-elastic interest rate, or an overlapping generations framework the equilibrium dynamics around a steady state are unbounded if the excess demand function for the foreign traded good is increasing in the good's own price. Otherwise the dynamics are bounded and locally unique. By contrast, with Uzawa-type preferences, the equilibrium dynamics around a steady state are shown to be bounded and locally unique irrespective of the sign of the slope of the excess demand function. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： Consumption based asset pricing   semiparametric estimation   limited stock market participation  

摘要： This paper presents estimates of key preference parameters of the Epstein and Zin (1989, 1991) and Weil (1989) recursive utility model, evaluates the model's ability to fit asset return data relative to other asset pricing models, and investigates the implications of such estimates for the unobservable aggregate wealth return. Our empirical results indicate that the estimated relative risk aversion parameter ranges from 17 to 60, with higher values for aggregate consumption than for stockholder consumption, while the estimated elasticity of intertemporal substitution is above 1. In addition, the estimated model-implied aggregate wealth return is found to be weakly correlated with the Center for Research in Security Prices value-weighted stock market return, suggesting that the return to human wealth is negatively correlated with the aggregate stock market return.

关键词： Parkinson's disease   cost   benefit   model   disease modification  

摘要： Multiple studies describe progression, dementia rates, direct and indirect costs, and health utility by Hoehn and Yahr (H&Y) stage, but research has not incorporated these data into a model to evaluate possible economic consequences of slowing progression. This study aimed to model the course of Parkinson's disease (PD) and describe the economic consequences of slower rates of progression. A Markov model was developed to show the net monetary benefits of slower rates of progression. Four scenarios assuming hypothetical slower rates of progression were compared to a base case scenario. A systematic literature review identified published longitudinal H&Y progression rates. Direct and indirect excess costs (i.e., healthcare costs beyond what similar patients without PD would incur), mortality rates, dementia rates, and health utility were derived from the literature. Ten publications (N = 3,318) were used to model longitudinal H&Y progression. Base case results indicate average excess direct costs of $303,754, life-years of 12.8 years and quality-adjusted life-years of 6.96. A scenario where PD progressed 20% slower than the base case resulted in net monetary benefits of $60,657 ($75,891 including lost income) per patient. The net monetary benefit comes from a $37,927 decrease in direct medical costs, 0.45 increase in quality-adjusted life-years, and $15,235 decrease in lost income. The scenario where PD progression was arrested resulted in net monetary benefits of $442,429 per patient. Reducing progression rates could produce significant economic benefit. This benefit is strongly dependent on the degree to which progression is slowed. (c) 2013 Movement Disorder Society

关键词： Teaching   Leontief Model   Linear independence and dependence   Linear algebra education   Vector space   Modeling  

摘要： We present an approach for teaching linear algebra using models. In particular, we are interested in analyzing the modeling process under an APOS perspective. We will present a short illustration of the analysis of an economics problem related to production in a set of industries. This problem elicits the use of the concepts of linear combination, linear independence, among other linear algebra concepts related to vector space. We describe cycles of students' work on the problem, present an analysis of the learning trajectory with emphasis on the constructions they develop, and discuss the advantages of this approach in terms of students' learning. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.