关键词： 产业   劳动力供给   商业机构   经济模型   财政政策   投资决策   消费需求   决策者  

摘要： 商业机构和决策者付出很大的努力以尝试理解未来,其途径包括为投资决策和财政政策提供参考而建立经济模型,以及更为实用和普遍流行的做法如识别在消费需求。

关键词： 贫困集聚   空间依赖性   空间计量经济模型  

摘要： 在构建贫困集聚空间计量模型的基础上,依据31个省域2005-2010年统计数据,对我国区域贫困问题进行了实证分析。结果表明:各省区贫困发生具有显著空间依赖特征;贫困空间分布遵循"西高东低,梯次递减"规律;局部聚集呈现出"东冷(L-L),西热(H-H)"特点;纳入地理空间效应的实证结论更加稳健与科学,空间模型优于传统模型;经济发展水平、财政扶贫支出、市场化程度、公共服务供给、城镇化、人口聚集以及收入分配差距均对贫困发生、集聚施加影响,但影响模式、时效、强度及方向存在明显差别。

关键词： 通胀预期   货币政策   “新共识”宏观经济模型  

摘要： 本文以"新共识"宏观经济理论框架为指导,围绕通胀预期这个重要变量和央行票据利率这一货币政策的重要代表指标,在Bernanke & Blinder(1988)的商品—信贷曲线基础上,考虑信贷可得性带来的金融摩擦,构建了中国"新共识"宏观经济模型,并用联立方程体系对我国货币政策进行动态分析。研究表明:(1)通胀预期是影响当前我国通胀的重要决定因素;(2)通胀预期冲击对我国实体经济的影响很大,而通胀本身对实体经济的影响相对较小;(3)由于通胀预期存在很强的惯性,要完全控制通胀预期需要超常规的货币紧缩,这可能会导致实体经济起伏;(4)货币政策需要及时对通胀预期作出反应,才能够发挥最大效用;(5)当前是数量型货币政策转向价格型货币政策的过渡期,在此期间,以央行票据利率为指标的货币政策可以发挥重要作用。

关键词： Dinner   Economic Models   Cosmetic Surgery   Plastic Surgery   Loudspeakers   plastic surgeons  

摘要： The Miami Society of Plastic Surgeons has dinner meetings almost every other month. Our meetings have two types of speakers — visiting professors, sponsored by different national societies, and commercial speakers, sponsored by drug and device manufacturers.

ISBN: (纸本)9787309094169

关键词： Economic models   Ecosystem management   Fishery management   Empirical research   Bioeconomics   Fish diversity  

摘要： This paper offers a theoretical and empirical model of ecosystem-based fishery management. A multi-species and multi-fleet model integrating Lotka-Volterra trophic dynamics as well as production and profit assessments is developed and applied to the coastal fishery of French Guiana. This small-scale fishery constitutes a challenging example with high fish biodiversity, several non-selective fleets and a potentially increasing local food demand due to demographic growth. The dynamic model is calibrated with 13 species and four fleets using monthly catch and effort data from 2006 to 2009. Several contrasted fishing scenarios including status quo, total closure, economic and viable strategies are then simulated. They are compared from the viewpoints of both biodiversity preservation and socioeconomic performance, assuming fixed landing prices and fixed costs. We show that fishing outputs, including food supply and fleet profitability, can be sustained on average but a loss of species cannot be avoided.

关键词： 非线性动力分析   经济周期模型   消费函数   借贷消费   极限环   加速数   经济调控手段   经济发展   投资函数  

摘要： 本文建立了考虑借贷消费及借贷投资的经济周期模型,对模型的动力学参数进行估计,在此基础上,分析了该系统的分岔和混沌行为,讨论了参数变化时系统动力学响应的变化和转迁规律,研究发现选择合理的宏观调控力度,能够控制借贷消费率及借贷投资率,从而对我国的解决发展起到明显的促进作用。

关键词： ECONOMIC models   FERTILITY decline   DEMOGRAPHIC transition   CAUSAL models   MORTALITY -- Mathematical models  

摘要： The demographic transition is an ongoing global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality rates are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Despite intense interest in the causes of the transition, especially with respect to decreasing fertility rates, the underlying mechanisms motivating it are still subject to much debate. The literature is crowded with competing theories, including causal models that emphasize (i) mortality and extrinsic risk, (ii) the economic costs and benefits of investing in self and children, and (iii) the cultural transmission of low-fertility social norms. Distinguishing between models, however, requires more comprehensive, better-controlled studies than have been published to date. We use detailed demographic data from recent fieldwork to determine which models produce the most robust explanation of the rapid, recent demographic transition in rural Bangladesh. To rigorously compare models, we use an evidence-based statistical approach using model selection techniques derived from likelihood theory. This approach allows us to quantify the relative evidence the data give to alternative models, even when model predictions are not mutually exclusive. Results indicate that fertility, measured as either total fertility or surviving children, is best explained by models emphasizing economic factors and related motivations for parental investment. Our results also suggest important synergies between models, implicating multiple causal pathways in the rapidity and degree of recent demographic transitions.

关键词： 区块   整体压裂   模糊分析   不确定性分析   经济模型  

摘要： 本文根据区块压裂施工参数及裂缝参数的分布特点,分别建立了上述参数的隶属度分布函数,在此基础上建立了区块整体压裂模糊不确定性经济评价模型。由此可得出区块压裂后获得不同经济净现值的概率,从而为该区块是否适合压裂、压裂的投资决策及风险性分析提供依据。

关键词： 数量经济学   函数形武   经济模型  

摘要： 数量经济学作为我国经济学的新兴学科。具有鲜明的交叉学科特征和其他经济学科难以替代的优势。近年来我国数量经济学的发展已初县规模。且取得了相当的进展。本文从我国数量经济学的发展现状和问题分析入手，阐明建立解决中国经济问题的函数形式度其内容，是我国数量经济学发展的主要方向。