关键词： BIFURCATION theory   LOTKA-Volterra equations   BIOECONOMICS   MATHEMATICAL models   STOCHASTIC analysis   STABILITY theory   COMPUTER simulation  

摘要： This study investigates a singular delayed predator-prey bioeconomic model with stochastic fluctuations, which is described by differential-algebraic equations because of economic factors. The interior equilibrium of the singular delayed predator-prey bioeconomic model switches from being stable to unstable and then back to being stable, with the increase in time delay. The critical values for stability switches and Hopf bifurcations can be analytically determined. Subsequently, the effect of a fluctuating environment on the singular stochastic delayed predator-prey bioeconomic model obtained by introducing Gaussian white noise terms to the aforementioned deterministic model system is discussed. The fluctuation intensity of the population and harvest effort are calculated by Fourier transform method. Numerical simulation results are presented to verify the effectiveness of the conclusions.

关键词： 再生产理论   国民收入决定论   宏观经济模型  

摘要： 马克思再生产理论与西方经济学的国民收入决定论,都是研究经济总量,即宏观经济的理论。本文借鉴西方经济学中的国民收入决定论,首次以马克思再生产理论为指导,构建全新的、符合社会主义市场经济实际的、具有中国特色的宏观经济模型。

关键词： 深圳华侨城   展览空间   信念   艺术交流   艺术家   经济模型   进口关税   艺术中心  

摘要： 在寸土寸金的香港开画廊，空间的耗费一直是一项挑战，但香港的交易商因受惠于香港的殖民史——开放的经济模型和鼓励商业的低税制度，不课进口关税和营利所得税等。也让香港成为了亚洲重要的艺术中心之一。提艺廊作为首间进驻深圳并主力推广香港艺术家的艺术空间。其空间在短短数年筹划众多不同类别的展览。在深圳华侨城创意文化区（OCT—LOFT）的PLATFORM主要以概念、装置及创作分享为艺术交流的主要展场；位于香港上环的展场CHECKPOINT，尽管展览空间只有十平方，但是每个月都呈现不同艺术家的展览：而第三个展览空间则是他们策划展览活动，增加艺术家与公众分享，甚至海外展出与交流机会的场所。这三个空间将画廊追求的学术、商业与后期活动的交流融为一体，共同构成了提艺廊独有的特色。

关键词： 配电网   可靠性   经济模型  

摘要： 配电网的可靠性与经济性是其最重要但也最矛盾的两个指标。该文针对配电网的特点,建立基于配电网设备可靠性维护策略的经济模型,并针对典型实例进行计算,指出其最佳实现方案。

关键词： 定价策略   零售商   供应链   制造商   贸易商   经济模型   库存模型   实证研究   库存策略   管理学报   目次  

关键词： 中国经济增长   增长目标   宏观经济模型   中国宏观经济   国内生产总值   公共财政收入   厦门大学   产能过剩  

摘要： 厦门大学与新华社经济参考报日前在京联合举行2013中国宏观经济高层研讨会暨中国季度宏观经济模型（CQMM）秋季预测发布会。报告认为，2013年上半年外部市场需求的萎缩以及近3年来过度投资所gl发的产能过剩，使中国工业生产增速和国内生产总值增速持续下降，并双双创下近3年来的最低增长速度。报告预测，2013年中国经济增长有望实现中央年初制定的7．5％的增长目标，并保持价格水平的稳定，但是并非毫无悬念。实体经济的减速、公共财政收入增速下滑以及居民实际收入增速减缓、民间投资需求疲软等，都成为中国经济保持在合理增长区间的重要障碍。

关键词： economic governance   economic models   incrementalism   performativity   policy paradigms  

摘要： Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept into play by arguing that the performative embedding of models in institutions is an important aspect of how paradigm shifts unfold that the current literature has neglected.

摘要： Background: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) clinical guidelines (CGs) make recommendations across large, complex care pathways for broad groups of patients. They rely on cost-effectiveness evidence from the literature and from new analyses for selected high-priority topics. An alternative approach would be to build a model of the full care pathway and to use this as a platform to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of multiple topics across the guideline recommendations. Objectives: In this project we aimed to test the feasibility of building full guideline models for NICE guidelines and to assess if, and how, such models can be used as a basis for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Data sources: A 'best evidence' approach was used to inform the model parameters. Data were drawn from the guideline documentation, advice from clinical experts and rapid literature reviews on selected topics. Where possible we relied on good-quality, recent UK systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Review methods: Two published NICE guidelines were used as case studies: prostate cancer and atrial fibrillation (AF). Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the recommended care pathways and to estimate consequent costs and outcomes. For each guideline, researchers not involved in model development collated a shortlist of topics suggested for updating. The modelling teams then attempted to evaluate options related to these topics. Cost-effectiveness results were compared with opinions about the importance of the topics elicited in a survey of stakeholders. Results: The modelling teams developed simulations of the guideline pathways and disease processes. Development took longer and required more analytical time than anticipated. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were produced for six of the nine prostate cancer topics considered, and for five of eight AF topics. The other topics were not evaluated owing to lack of data or time constraints. The modelled results su

摘要： Background Antineoplastic drugs for cancer are often associated with adverse events, which influence patients' physical health, quality of life and survival. However, the modelling of adverse events in cost-effectiveness analyses of antineoplastic drugs has not been examined. Aims This article reviews published economic evaluations that include a calculated cost for adverse events of antineoplastic drugs. The aim is to identify how existing models manage four issues specific to antineoplastic drug adverse events: the selection of adverse events for inclusion in models, the influence of dose modifications on drug quantity and survival outcomes, the influence of adverse events on quality of life and the consideration of multiple simultaneous or recurring adverse events. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted using MESH headings and key words in multiple electronic databases, covering the years 1999-2009. Inclusion criteria for eligibility were papers covering a population of adults with solid tumour cancers, the inclusion of at least one adverse event and the resource use and/or costs of adverse event treatment. Results From 4,985 citations, 26 eligible articles were identified. Studies were generally of moderate quality and addressed a range of cancers and treatment types. While the four issues specific to antineoplastic drug adverse events were addressed by some studies, no study addressed all of the issues in the same model. Conclusion This review indicates that current modelling assumptions may restrict our understanding of the true impact of adverse events on cost effectiveness of antineoplastic drugs. This understanding could be improved through consideration of the selection of adverse events, dose modifications, multiple events and quality of life in cost-effectiveness studies.

关键词： Green initiatives   differentiation strategy   sustainable development   quality of life  

摘要： Aiming at sustainable green building development is a current trend in Malaysian building industry. Hence, the paper's objective is to investigate the integration strategy of green building project through sustainable economic model to enlighten the developers towards a positive growth of business development. Through a systematic design of grounded theory approach, as a result, this paper presented the conceptual framework comprises of five potential business models that can be used to embark on sustainable green initiatives project through various but different entries. Simultaneously, the conceptual framework attempts to accommodate the sustainability concept as the key dimension to quality of life.