关键词： 空间经济模型   区域性金融中心   建设  

摘要： 根据空间经济模型和经济金融发展实际,构建若干指标体系对中国东中部部分省会城市区域性金融中心的建设水平进行了实证分析。研究结果显示:影响区域性金融中心建设的主要因素有金融机构存款余额、上市公司筹资额、保费收入、就业量、专利授权数、人均地区生产总值、贸易成本、最终消费、产业份额、经济外向度、地方政府干预,等等。因此,区域性金融中心建设水平低的省会城市应该制定政策尽快降低不对称程度,提高区域性金融中心建设水平,加快金融业的改革和发展。

关键词： 中国   货币国际化   宏观经济模型   宏观经济政策  

摘要： 在经济全球化的背景下,我国的经济得到了快速的发展,人民币升值和国际化问题逐渐浮出水面。文章通过建立货币国际化的宏观经济模型,从货币的供给和需求、汇率的决定方程以及财政的收支平衡等方面,来分析货币国际化之后对中国的货币政策、汇率政策以及财政政策的影响。

关键词： 无形资产   诚信   经济模型   博弈论   信誉制度  

摘要： 从无形资产的角度看待诚信问题,着手解决产生诚信案例的致因因素,从市场,经济社会规律和经济模型角度科学分析,抛砖引玉提出包含政府在内兼顾市场交易双方的博弈论方法进行信誉制度考核改善诚信经济发展。

关键词： 柔鱼   生物经济模型   贴现率   鱿钓渔业   西北太平洋  

摘要： 西北太平洋柔鱼是我国远洋渔业重要的捕捞对象，综合考虑生物、经济和社会效益来科学制定渔业管理目标是确保柔鱼资源可持续利用的重要研究内容。本文根据1996—2011年我国鱿钓船在西北太平洋海域捕捞的柔鱼渔获量和作业成本，结合贴现率和渔获物价格等经济数据，构建基于贴现率的西北太平洋柔鱼生物经济模型。结果表明，西北太平洋柔鱼资源状况处于良好状态，并未遭受过度捕捞；当贴现率α在0．3～0．5之间，当前利益占长远利益的20％～30‰（D=0．2～0．3），且渔获物价格在9195～12500元／t之间时，该海域的柔鱼资源种群资源量相对稳定，能达到最优种群数量水平，可保证柔鱼渔获量始终处在MSY之下，确保柔鱼资源的可持续利用。

关键词： 假设检验   统计推断   经济模型  

摘要： 假设检验是抽样推断中的非常重要的一部分,在质量管理、过程控制中有着非常广泛的应用.由于某些原因的限制,我们无法知道总体的具体参数,因此就要通过从总体中抽取的样本的参数来估计总体参数的范围,进而对总体做出判断.这就需要我们先做出假设,然后根据一定的检验方法和概率原则对假设做出判断,得出总体的情况.将假设检验的理论应用于经济分析中,并举例分析.通过对样本的数据进行统计分析,从而得知总体的大致情况.假设检验能够为在经济学中的分析提供依据,对指导经济的分析具有十分重要的意义.

关键词： Spatial economics   Network externalities congestion   Price equilibrium   Price of anarchy  

摘要： This paper studies a spatial economic model under network externalities, assuming a quadratic transport cost function. A classical circular model is applied where the consumers, each with a fixed demand, are uniformly distributed along the circumference of a circle. Assuming symmetric locations of profit-maximizing suppliers, a unique symmetric price equilibrium is derived under both positive and negative network externalities. The price equilibrium is obtained using the tridiagonality property of the demand system. The equilibrium price is higher with negative network externalities than the price without externalities whereas the converse is true with positive network externalities. The efficiency loss of the free entry equilibrium is studied in terms of the price of anarchy. Numerical experiments suggest that the price of anarchy is robust to weak externalities but can be significant under strong network externalities.

关键词： MATHEMATICAL models   ECONOMIC models   BAYESIAN analysis   HUMAN behavior   SUSPICION   TRUST   INTERPERSONAL conflict   COORDINATION games (Mathematics)  

摘要： We propose a model of cycles of conflict and distrust. Overlapping generations of agents from two groups sequentially play coordination games under incomplete information about whether the other side consists of bad types who always take bad actions. Good actions may be misperceived as bad and information about past actions is limited. Conflict spirals start as a result of misperceptions but also contain the seeds of their own dissolution: Bayesian agents eventually conclude that the spiral likely started by mistake, and is thus uninformative of the opposing group's type. The agents then experiment with a good action, restarting the cycle.

关键词： Acute Coronary Syndrome/drug therapy   Acute Coronary Syndrome/drug therapy   Acute Coronary Syndrome/economics   Acute Coronary Syndrome/economics   Acute Coronary Syndrome/surgery   Acute Coronary Syndrome/surgery   Decision Making   Decision Trees   Fibrinolytic Agents/economics   Fibrinolytic Agents/therapeutic use   Humans   Markov Chains   Models, Economic   Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/methods  

摘要： Background Thrombosis inhibitors can be used to treat acute coronary syndromes (ACS). However, there are various alternative treatment strategies, of which some have been compared using health economic decision models. Objective To assess the quality of health economic decision models comparing thrombosis inhibitors in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, and to identify areas for quality improvement. Data Sources The literature databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA). Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods A review of the quality of health economic decision models was conducted by two independent reviewers, using the Philips checklist. Results Twenty-one relevant studies were identified. Differences were apparent regarding the model type (six decision trees, four Markov models, eight combinations, three undefined models), the model structure (types of events, Markov states) and the incorporation of data (efficacy, cost and utility data). Critical issues were the absence of particular events (e. g. thrombocytopenia, stroke) and questionable usage of utility values within some studies. Limitations As we restricted our search to health economic decision models comparing thrombosis inhibitors, interesting aspects related to the quality of studies of adjacent medical areas that compared stents or procedures could have been missed. Conclusions This review identified areas where recommendations are indicated regarding the quality of future ACS decision models. For example, all critical events and relevant treatment options should be included. Models also need to allow for changing event probabilities to correctly reflect ACS and to incorporate appropriate, age-specific utility values and decrements when conducting cost-utility analyses.

关键词： modeling   meta-analyses   cardiovascular   uncertainty   correlation  

摘要： Background: To increase power to detect a treatment effect, trials may combine multiple endpoints such as survival, myocardial infarctions, and strokes. When such trials are used to define the uncertainty associated with input parameters in an economic model, the output uncertainty will depend on the way in which the dependency between individual endpoints is modeled. Objective: To develop a flexible approach to model the interrelationship between individual components of a combined endpoint. Methods: A standard independent Dirichlet approach is compared with a dependent Dirichlet approach and logistic approaches. The logistic approaches use a link between the various endpoints by either an observed clinical variable (cholesterol) or a latent one. The logistic and Dirichlet methods are compared using 6 statin trials including 5 endpoints: myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, fatal MI, fatal stroke, and other cardiovascular death. The results are compared using the point estimates and uncertainty in a simplified cardiovascular model to calculate point estimates and uncertainty of estimated incremental life-years when applying probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The influence of the link between endpoints is tested by changing the prior in the logistic approaches. Results: The dependent Dirichlet approach reduces uncertainty up to 29% and changes the point estimate by up to 28%. The logistic approach with uninformative priors does not affect the uncertainty and point estimates. When strong priors are used, the uncertainty margins get smaller (up to 49%) and point estimates vary more. Including information about cholesterol has limited impact. Conclusions: The logistic approaches offer a flexible way to reflect one's beliefs about the interrelationships between individual endpoints, potentially decreasing uncertainty margins. The approach works equally well with and without data concerning the underlying disease process.