关键词： 受众   最优化消费   媒介产品   经济模型  

摘要： 每天受众都面临着海量的大众传媒生产的眼花缭乱的媒介产品,该如何配置自身有限的资源来最优化观赏这些媒介产品是一个理性选择问题。本文运用微观经济学模型分析受众如何在现有时间、货币、健康等稀缺资源限制下,最优化消费媒介产品。

关键词： 宏观经济模型   指标预测   中国   GDP增长率  

摘要： 1、GDP增长率预测 基于中国季度宏观经济模型（CQMM）的预测结果表明：2014年，中国GDP增速将继续下行，略降至7．62％，1；L2013年下降0．08％；

关键词： 金融学   市净率   规模变量   经济学   溢价   成长股   价值股   非生产领域经济学   定价模型   经济模型   生涯  

摘要： 序 《金融经济学年度评论》(Annual Review of Financial Economics)的主编请我作一职业自传.我主要想写自己所认为最好的方面.对我其他经历感兴趣的读者请从芝加哥大学布斯商学院下载我的简历.我仅简要地和大家分享我的某些想法及其起源,为文章添些乐趣.我也不打算回顾别人所做的贡献,因为这有可能使他们高看自己.若有不当之处,我在此先请读者多多包涵.

关键词： energy models   energy system analysis   energy use  

摘要： The main objective of this research is to develop a bottom-up energy-economic model considering endogenous technological development. The designed model analyzes the feasibility of CCS technologies in the Japanese electricity market to derive an optimum carbon reduction scenario. Two factors, a learning curve based on learning-by-doing and public R&D investment, precede technological progress. The analysis is calculated with a set of scenarios, which is based on alternative assumptions for technological characteristics: chemical and physical carbon absorptive technology. From modeling estimation, we conclude that technological progress reduces the generation costs of conversion technologies with CCS, as a CCS system acquires an additional unit of installation. Generation cost with chemical absorption remarkably reduces its marginal unit cost through a learning mechanism. The supply fraction from a gas-fired power plant increases over the analytical time period. The introduction of CCS reduces carbon emission level 17% compared to the baseline scenario in 2050. Technological progress has little impact on the total system costs;however, learning-by-doing pushes the introduction of CCS into the market rather than into a R&D activity. Research and development efforts in the private sector or knowledge spillover are not modeled in the study;however, they have the potential to contribute to the mitigation of carbon emission as well. (C) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

关键词： Grid computing   Economic models   Performance evaluation and comparison   Domains of strengths  

摘要： Economic-based approaches have been found to be effective for distributed resource management in Grid computing. However, deciding which model to use is challenging, because (1) the performance stability of a particular model in a dynamic and distributed environment, is hard to establish (2) the performance objective of the Grid network may be complex, and it is difficult to know which model would best fit such an objective, (3) evidence indicates that no single model can cope with every scenario, and (4) no suitable tools exist to accurately predict and contrast the performances of one model with another model in a particular domain. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of widely proposed economic models in terms of a range of scenarios is, therefore, crucial. To address this, the authors developed a general evaluation platform suitable for analyzing the performance of different economic models in the Grid. This work identifies domains of strength of individual models and highlights their use in various scenarios of Grid computing.

关键词： Fisher ecological knowledge   Social-ecological systems   Fishery modeling   US Virgin Islands  

摘要： This paper examines how fishers' ecological knowledge (FEK) and the analysis of their decision-making process can be used to help managers anticipate fisher behavior and thus be able to efficiently allocate scarce resources for monitoring and enforcement. To examine determinants of fisher behaviors, this study develops a coupled behavior-economic model examining how physical, market, and regulatory forces affect commercial fishers' choice of fishing grounds in a small-scale fishery (SSF) in St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. The model estimates that fishing operations land $396 +/- 110 per trip (mean +/- SD;n = 427 trips), with the highest value in landings arriving from Lang Bank. The model explains 62% of the variation in fishers' choice to fish at Lang Bank, the most productive, yet farthest fishing grounds. The coupled behavioral-economic model is focused on the small temporal and spatial scales of fishing effort and FEK in an SSF. Therefore the model can be used to predict how a range of physical and regulatory conditions and changes in demand will drive overall (fleet) fishing effort allocation in space and time. By illustrating and quantifying these social-ecological causes and effects, the model can assist managers to efficiently allocate limited monitoring and enforcement resources. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

摘要： Background and Objective Bayesian methods can be used to elicit experts' beliefs about the clinical value of healthcare technologies. This study investigates a beliefelicitation method for estimating diagnostic performance in an early stage of development of photoacoustic mammography (PAM) imaging versus magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for detecting breast cancer. Research Design Eighteen experienced radiologists ranked tumor characteristics regarding their importance to detect malignancies. With reference to MRI, radiologists estimated the true positives and negatives of PAM using the variable interval method. An overall probability density function was determined using linear opinion pooling, weighted for individual experts' experience. Result The most important tumor characteristics are mass margins and mass shape. Respondents considered MRI the better technology to visualize these characteristics. Belief elicitation confirmed this by providing an overall sensitivity of PAM ranging from 58.9 to 85.1 % (mode 75.6 %) and specificity ranging from 52.2 to 77.6 % (mode 66.5 %). Conclusion Belief elicitation allowed estimates to be obtained for the expected diagnostic performance of PAM, although radiologists expressed difficulties in doing so. Heterogeneity within and between experts reflects this uncertainty and the infancy of PAM. Further clinical trials are required to validate the extent to which this belief- elicitation method is predictive for observed test performance.

关键词： 经济模型   研究  

ISBN: (纸本)9787561550694

摘要： 本文对变系数的空间面板数据模型进行研究，此类模型的优点在于可以考察经济关系以及空间关系的个体特征与动态特性，不论在理论上还是在实际应用上都有重要的研究价值与意义。主要的研究创新体现在以下几个方面：（1）对时变空间自回归固定系数模型提出了贝叶斯估计方法，并利用MCMC抽样方法对参数进行估计；并对混合形式的空间固定系数模型提出了一个四阶段的估计量，证明了该估计量在时的渐进性质，并利用MonteCarlo模拟分析了估计量的小样本性质。（2）对时变误差合成空间固定系数模型进行研究，提出了两种参数估计方法：中中种方法是基于极大似然方法的多阶段迭代方法，第二种方法则是利用矩估计方法，后者借鉴了KelejianandPrucha(1999)所提出的矩估计方法。对这两种方法所得到的估计量，本文均证明了估计量的一致性，并利用MonteCarlo方法模拟了其小样本性质。

ISBN: (纸本)9787564331207

关键词： Economic model predictive control   Supply chain optimization   Inventory control   Scheduling  

摘要： In this paper, we propose economic model predictive control with guaranteed closed-loop properties for supply chain optimization. We propose a new multiobjective stage cost that captures economics as well as risk at a node, using a weighted sum of an economic cost and a tracking stage cost. We also demonstrate integration of scheduling with control using a supply chain example. We integrate a scheduling model for a multiproduct batch plant with a control model for inventory control in a supply chain. We show recursive feasibility of such integrated control problems by developing simple terminal conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.