关键词： 中国经济   GDP   预测   宏观经济模型   经济增长率   刺激政策   厦门大学   增长减速  

摘要： 施普林格出版社、厦门大学与经济参考报社11日在德国海德堡联合发布中国季度宏观经济模型（CQMM）2014年秋季预测报告。报告认为，2014年中国经济增长减速的态势还将继续，预计全年GDP增速为7．49％。课题组指出，现有的微刺激政策提高了经济增长率，但持续地应用微刺激政策可能得不偿失。报告建议在经济周期下行区间适当下调预期经济增长率，将2015、2016年的经济增长目标调整至7．2％左右。

关键词： process control   control configuration design   input selection   economic model predictive control   process economics   process operation  

摘要： Economic model predictive control (EMPC) is a feedback control method that dictates a potentially dynamic (time-varying) operating policy to optimize the process economics. The objective function used in the EMPC system may be a general nonlinear function that describes the process/system economics. As this function is not derived on the sole basis of classical control considerations (stabilization, tracking, and optimal control action calculation) but rather on the basis of economics, selecting the appropriate control configuration, and quantifying the influence of a given input on an economic cost is an important task for the proper design and computational efficiency of an EMPC scheme. Owing to these considerations, an input selection methodology for EMPC is proposed which utilizes the relative degree and the sensitivity of the economic cost with respect to an input to identify and select stabilizing manipulated inputs with the most dynamic and steady-state influence on the economic cost function to be assigned to EMPC. Other considerations for input selection for EMPC are also discussed and integrated into a proposed input selection methodology for EMPC. The control configuration selection method for EMPC is demonstrated using a chemical process example. (C) 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

关键词： 生物经济模型   渔业资源优化配置   渔业管理   渔业资源经济学  

摘要： 渔业资源生物经济模型(Bio-economic model)是渔业资源经济学研究的重要内容,也是研究渔业资源优化配置的重要手段,本文对渔业资源生物经济模型的发展历史进行比较分析,探讨模型在渔业资源开发利用和管理上的应用,旨在为渔业资源可持续开发和科学管理、开发策略评估等提供参考。分析认为,渔业资源生物经济模型已由简单的生物模型,发展成为目前集生态效益、经济效益、社会效益以及环境和气候变化等因素的复杂的动态模型,而国内在这一领域的研究则明显滞后,仍处于理论探索阶段,应用研究也较少。随着数学建模能力和计算机模拟技术的发展,科学家们能够结合各种因子的不确定性,模拟不同渔业管理措施及其可控因子的变化等对渔业资源优化配置的影响,为渔业管理者优化管理策略提供依据,这将是今后的发展重点和趋势。建立一套完整科学的渔业资源监测与评估系统,以及生物、社会、经济等方面的数据采集系统,是开展渔业资源生物经济模型研究的基础。

关键词： 企业发展   中国经济   市场化改革   劳动力成本   资源价格   经济发展   经济环境   经济模型  

摘要： 挑战篇生存环境之经济环境经济发展动力正在不断减弱.过往10年中国经济高速发展,年均增速达到10％,全社会投资年均增速高达20％以上.为什么中国经济能有这么快速的发展？根据经典经济模型“索洛”模型分析,经济发展的主要动力来自于效率、资源和劳动力.而中国经济过往快速发展主要得益于市场化改革、低劳动力成本和低资源价格.过去30年大家感受很深刻,邓小平改革前面十年,更多是释放了活力,提升了效率.到90年代以及后期,通过刺激外贸,利用丰富劳动力资源.过去十年,推进了重工业发展,中国成为资源吸纳国.这种情况下,过去30年我们中国的经济发展速度非常快.

关键词： 技术进步   经济发展   贡献率   经济模型   实证研究  

摘要： 在对黑龙江省1992—2011年统计数据处理的基础上,采用柯布-道格拉斯函数和索洛余值法对黑龙江省经济发展中的技术进步贡献率进行测定,得出黑龙江省经济依然是典型的资本驱动型发展模式。要实现更好更快的发展,必须提高人力资本与技术进步对经济发展贡献的比重。为此,结合现实经济发展中存在的若干问题,给出实现黑龙江省经济发展方式转变的若干建议。

关键词： Economic model predictive control   Robust model predictive control   Set-based control  

摘要： In this paper, we develop a tube-based economic MPC framework for nonlinear systems subject to unknown but bounded disturbances. Instead of simply transferring the design procedure of tube-based stabilizing MPC to an economic MPC framework, we rather propose to consider the influence of the disturbance explicitly within the design of the MPC controller, which can lead to an improved closed-loop average performance. This will be done by using a specifically defined integral stage cost, which is the key feature of our proposed robust economic MPC algorithm. Furthermore, we show that the algorithm enjoys similar properties as a nominal economic MPC algorithm (i.e., without disturbances), in particular with respect to bounds on the asymptotic average performance of the resulting closed-loop system, as well as stability and optimal steady-state operation. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Economic model predictive control   Self-tuning terminal cost   Generalized terminal constraint  

摘要： In this paper, we analyze the closed-loop performance of a recently introduced economic model predictive control (MPC) scheme with self-tuning terminal cost. To this end, we propose to use a generalized terminal region constraint instead of a generalized terminal equality constraint within the repeatedly solved optimization problem, which allows us to obtain improved closed-loop asymptotic average performance bounds. In particular, these bounds can be obtained a priori. We discuss how the necessary parameters for the generalized terminal region setting can be calculated, and we illustrate our findings with two numerical examples. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Economic MPC   Triggered evaluations   Nonlinear systems   State feedback   Output feedback  

摘要： In this work, we focus on the computation load reduction in the optimization of economic model predictive control (EMPC) for nonlinear systems. Specifically, event-based triggering approach is adopted to significantly reduce the number of evaluations of the EMPC. First, we consider the case that state feedback is available and design a triggering condition based on the difference between the actual system state and its predicted value. At a sampling time, if the triggering condition is satisfied, the EMPC is re-evaluated. Subsequently, we consider the case that only output feedback is available. In this case, a robust moving horizon estimator is used to reconstruct the state information from output measurements and the corresponding triggering condition is based on the difference between the measured and predicted output as well as its time derivatives. For both cases, the EMPC is redesigned to account for potential open-loop operations. Sufficient conditions that ensure the closed-loop stability are provided for both cases. A chemical process is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed designs. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Model predictive control   Economic MPC   Dynamic real time optimization   Periodic operation   Stability   Changing criteria  

摘要： In this paper we consider periodic optimal operation of constrained periodic linear systems. We propose an economic model predictive controller based on a single layer that unites dynamic real time optimization and control. The proposed controller guarantees closed-loop convergence to the optimal periodic trajectory that minimizes the average operation cost for a given economic criterion. A priori calculation of the optimal trajectory is not required and if the economic cost function is changed, recursive feasibility and convergence to the new periodic optimal trajectory is guaranteed. The results are demonstrated with two simulation examples, a four tank system, and a simplified model of a section of Barcelona's water distribution network. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Economic model predictive control   Nonlinear systems   Process control   Process economics   Process optimization  

摘要： An overview of the recent results on economic model predictive control (EMPC) is presented and discussed addressing both closed-loop stability and performance for nonlinear systems. A chemical process example is used to provide a demonstration of a few of the various approaches. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the current status of EMPC and future research directions to promote and stimulate further research potential in this area. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.