关键词： 宏观经济模型   经济活动   性中   时间偏好   风险厌恶   古典经济学家   投资组合风险   过度自信   经济学大师   家族倾向  

摘要： 预测虽然时有失败,却从未被人们放弃,它是人性中根深蒂固的东西。我们对于自己所处世界的事件进程预见得越多,就越有能力为应对这些事件做好准备,从而改善生活品质。2008年9月的危机却没有人预见到,宏观经济模型在我们最需要它的时候遭遇了彻底失败,这令经济学界大为沮丧。哪里出了问题？我的思考从对＂动物精神＂的分析开始,这个知名术语是凯恩斯发明的,凯恩斯讨论的动物精神是从事经济活动的驱动力,我们的讨论对此概念有所扩展。

关键词： 退耕还林   农民人均收入   影响因素   经济模型   回归分析  

摘要： 退耕还林政策是迄今为止世界上最大的生态建设工程,对农户的影响不容小视。该研究以贵州省织金县为例,通过比较2000～2013年该县农民人均收入和城镇居民人均收入,分析了退耕还林政策实施后城乡居民之间的收入水平差距,并且通过建立经济学模型对织金县农民人均收入的影响因素进行了回归分析,得出转移性收入对提高农民人均纯收入的作用不显著的结论,提出了增加农民收入的对策。

关键词： 生产要素   供需均衡   微观经济   大国模型  

摘要： 构建大国经济模型是将大国经济理论研究引向深入的重要环节。本文在评述国內外文献的基础上,从生产要素供需均衡的视角出发,构建了一个由生产资料厂商、消费品厂商和消费者所组成的三部门经济增长模型来刻画大国经济的运行机理;分析了宏观均衡条件下经济规模对经济发展的影响,论证了经济规模能提升总产出、人均产出水平以及实际工资水平,从而为大国经济运行的特殊性研究提供了理论基础,为大国经济发展提供新的战略思路。

摘要： Among the various statistical studies on migration before the Great War, Italy has received little attention, with a few notable exceptions. The standard economic approach explains emigration to any given country as driven by relative wages, relative employment rates, and the stock of previous emigrants to that country, the "network". This paper improves on earlier contributions by covering all Italian migration outflows between 1876 and 1915 to the most significant destination countries, taking all countries separately and simultaneously and adopting the most consistent and up-to-date econometric approaches. As it turns out, the standard model is only partially confirmed when accounting for heterogeneity of destinations, whereas other relevant hypotheses are not accepted.

关键词： 计量经济学   经济模型   研究  

ISBN: (纸本)9787510088445

摘要： 本书是作者在其博士论文的基础上完善而成。作者在系统梳理离散选择模型分析框架和贝叶斯抽样算法的基础上，对不同数据类型条件下离散选择模型参数估计的有关理论问题进行了探索性研究，并运用该模型对农村贫困程度决定因素、我国银行间市场同业拆借利率的决定因素等经济问题进行了分析。

关键词： PREDICTIVE control   ECONOMIC models   PERFORMANCE evaluation   STATE-space methods   TIME-varying systems   COST analysis   ECONOMIC policy  

摘要： A framework for performance monitoring of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems is presented which includes the computation of an acceptable operating region, which is a well-defined region in state-space, for EMPC systems to operate a process in a time-varying fashion to optimize process economics while meeting input constraints and stabilizability requirements. To capture the interplay between sources of common cause variance caused by various sources like sensor noise, imperfect actuator operation, and model inaccuracy, a residual variable taken to be the difference of actual real-time economic cost and the predicted (expected) economic cost is defined. Utilizing exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and historical closed-loop process data, an upper control limit and a lower control limit are established which defines normal operation (i.e., operation with common cause variation). The limits are utilized to monitor the performance of EMPC by comparing real-time process operation data under EMPC and the corresponding regions of acceptable EMPC operation computed in the normal operation dynamic data generation step. The proposed monitoring framework is demonstrated and evaluated using a chemical process example.

关键词： Spatial information   Production possibilities frontier   Mangrove   Shrimp nursery habitat   Aquaculture   Ecosystem service  

摘要： Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bio-economic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the nursery habitat service of mangroves: (1) direct or indirect connection of mangroves to watercourses;(2) the spatial allocation of aquaculture ponds;and (3) the presence of non-linear relations between mangrove extent and juvenile recruitment to wild shrimp populations. By tracing out the production possibilities frontier of wild and cultivated shrimp, the model assesses the role of spatial information in the trade-off between aquaculture and the nursery habitat function using spatial elements relevant to our model of a mangrove area in Ca Mau Province, Viet Nam. Results show that where mangrove forests have to coexist with shrimp aquaculture ponds, the inclusion of specific spatial information on ecosystem functions in considerations of land allocation can achieve aquaculture benefits while largely preserving the economic benefits generated by the nursery habitat function. However, if spatial criteria are ignored, ill-advised land allocation decisions can easily lead to a collapse of the mangrove's nursery function. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 年度报告   中央财政   棚户区改造   液压挖掘机   房地产投资   宏观经济模型   市场占有率   经济参考   首都国际机场   在建铁路  

摘要： 数字197.21亿元 8月29日,行业龙头三一重工发布2014年半年度报告,报告期内,公司共实现营业收入197.21亿元,归属于上市公司股东的净利润13.7亿元。虽受市场调整影响,营业收入、净利润虽同比下滑,但由于三一重工进行了及时有力的调整变革,在营业收入与净利润两方面均处于行业第一。123数字419亿元财政部发布的消息显示,截至6月底,中央财政已下达2014年城乡保障性安居工程补助资金共2 198.20亿元。其中,用于棚户区改造支出419.61亿元,

关键词： EVA   发电企业   应用   经济增加值   经济考核   全球覆盖   经济模型   企业价值  

摘要： EVA即经济增加值,是英文Economic Value Added的缩写,由美国思腾思特（Stem Stewat）公司在1982年基于诺贝尔经济学获奖者关于企业价值的经济模型基础上提出并逐渐在全球覆盖使用的经济考核指标.

关键词： 城市化   聚集经济   规模收益   外部成本   规模优化  

摘要： 在城市化与经济增长相互促进的关系问题上,较为多见的一个观点是:在中国西部省份,经济增长对城市化的推动作用强于城市化对经济增长的促进作用,即城市化对其经济增长的促进作用不明显。原因何在?文章试图为解决这个问题建立一个理论框架。首先,对城市化促进经济增长的理论与机制作了一番梳理,指出其核心在于城市的聚集经济。然后,在此基础上,运用边际分析思想构建了一个规模优化的城市经济模型,此时,城市的净规模收益达到最大。